ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[pojo]

we'll be able to see what it does overnight...

[hwego7]

The NHC sites the FL winds of 36kts and 1007mb as the reason for TD. The SFMR readings were not mentioned thus we must get the FL winds up in order for this to be upgraded as that is the criteria they will be using.

[KWT]

Yep indeed Pojo its a good job we have 6hr fixes...also a good job that recon wasn't cancelled as well today as thats what has led us to get Td5.

hurricanefloyd5, yep the NHC obviously thinks its going to come close enough to the LA coasts that a TS warning iswise, I suppose if it strengthens a little more then expected its a wise idea, TS watch for a good chunk of the Texan coastline.

[Honeyko]

2015Z Navy 1km zoom, full-sized (click the bar like it says!).

IMO there's still a possibility of a SW jog as the LLC gets sucked under the most intense convection, toward where that northwest inflow feeder has been slamming into the system. It shouldn't be for a lot, however; maybe 50 or 75 miles.

[njweather]

See here for advisory & discussion: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102276

[HouTXmetro]

What is going to stop this from becoming another Alicia? I mean are nt the conditions better than what Alicia went through?

[KWT]

forecasted to get upto 50kts, seems pretty reasonable based on the models forecast, the SHIPS get it close to that strength as well, though the GFDL obviously gets this system a good deal higher then that and upto hurricane strength.

[GeneratorPower]

Congrats to the TX folks as it looks like you'll get a very interesting and not too damaging TS impacting you, as well as likely relief from the drought! Let's just hope it doesn't RI about 12 hours before landfall.

Cheers.

[RL3AO]

What the? TWC update just called this an "unorganized" and could become "better organized over the next couple days".

[canegrl04]

Wow This could posibly reach hurricane status before landfall. Looks like the Dallas area has a good shot at seeing some rain from Eduoard

[KWT]

HouTXmetro, conditions were a good deal better for Alicia then this system at least in the short term. I think chances for another Alicia are pretty slim, chances for a hurricane probably not so slim, depends how quickly the shear eases off really.

[cycloneye]

I don't think this has been posted yet, so...:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 032033
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY HAS SHOWN THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EXPOSED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. RECENT REPORTS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED
ENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 36 KT AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/5. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH THE GFS AND
UKMET AIMING AT WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AIMING AT TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN
36-48 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WHICH HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A RAGGED
APPEARANCE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH 50-55 KT WINDS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST
GFDL CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL... WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO
THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST ON THIS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 28.2N 88.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

This was posted in the advisory thread.That thread is made for those to be posted there and not here.

[vaffie]

What is going to stop this from becoming another Alicia? I mean are nt the conditions better than what Alicia went through?

I think what it really boils down to are time and what it does tonight. If it organizes quickly tonight, then it will have the opportunity on Monday and Monday night to become intense by landfall-time, but if it pulses in and out aimlessly over the next 12 hours, without much pressure-fall tonight, then it is unlikely it will reach hurricane status. It could really go either way right now.

[GeneratorPower]

What the? TWC update just called this an "unorganized" and could become "better organized over the next couple days".

There's nobody there over the weekend. They just put the "Storm Stories" DVD in the machine and let it ride until Monday. In all seriousness I wouldn't take TWC's stuff seriously. Consult the NHC official products. They actually make sense.

[Aquawind]

What the? TWC update just called this an "unorganized" and could become "better organized over the next couple days".

But they are the Authority..

[KWT]

The thing is I'm always a lot more watchful of these systems after the 07 season with both Lorenzo and Humberto bombing rapidly close to land. Whilst this won't happen in the short term conditions do look good in about 24hrs time for decent strengthening, all depends what state the core is in around that time IMO.

[pojo]

Yep indeed Pojo its a good job we have 6hr fixes...also a good job that recon wasn't cancelled as well today as thats what has led us to get Td5.

they won't cancel recon unless it makes landfall....

right now we are still on 6hrlys.... we may go to 3hrlys within the next couple of days.

[tailgater]

What the? TWC update just called this an "unorganized" and could become "better organized over the next couple days".

But they are the Authority..

They finally got the memo, this just in TD 5 @ 2 mins. ago\

[RL3AO]

What the? TWC update just called this an "unorganized" and could become "better organized over the next couple days".

But they are the Authority..

CNN is on it.

http://www.cnn.com/

[KWT]

Yep indeed Pojo its a good job we have 6hr fixes...also a good job that recon wasn't cancelled as well today as thats what has led us to get Td5.

they won't cancel recon unless it makes landfall....

right now we are still on 6hrlys.... we may go to 3hrlys within the next couple of days.

Its good to know that thanks Pojo, at least we should have very good information on Td5.

Personally I think this may make landfall in a similar place as Jerry 89 did and quite possibly a similar strength. We've seen these systems once sorting out the inner core go on to develop right upto landfall, Jerry 89, Danny 97 and Humberto/Lorenzo 07 proved that nicely.