ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Aric Dunn]

With this sort of system Aric I wouldn't be looking for those large bursts that cover the entire system there is too much in the way of mid level dry air still coming into the circulation for that IMO.

again which means the convection is still not deep or organized. and actually thats what you get a lot of times with systems that are sheared, you will see huge bursts then they die out

[Honeyko]

1. Lets see if we have a closed LLC.

When recon reports a center, it'll only be confirming what's been obvious since shortly after sun-up. And here it is, mid-afternoon already. (This is why people get blind-sided by rapidly developing systems: They refuse to trust their own eyes and wait many additional hours for official verifications before beginning to prepare.)



Buoy 42040 is now reporting 13.6kts E wind, 19.4k gusts. This is in the clear part of the circulation, and not near the center (the buoy is farther north than the tip of the Delta).

[Aric Dunn]

here is a 258 degree .. which is pretty close

193600 2809N 08756W 9780 00258 0073 +227 +210 097004 004 000 003 03



west winds are

W


258.75 - 281.25

[RL3AO]

Looks like we have an closed low. Waiting for VDM to confirm.

[vaffie]

Buoy 42003--to its south--is reporting a westsouthwest wind. I think it's pretty likely they will find it to be closed.

[Stratosphere747]

When recon reports a center, it'll only be confirming what's been obvious since shortly after sun-up. And here it is, mid-afternoon already. (This is why people get blind-sided by rapidly developing systems: They refuse to trust their own eyes and wait many additional hours for official verifications.)

It's prudent to be cautious before looking for a RI cycle. At this time there is no indication that this system is doing so.

[NDG]

Never doubted that they were going to find a closed low, pressure dropped 3 mb in the second pass, hmm, at least a TD if not a TS very shortly.

[hwego7]

Recon is reporting they have found a TS. However, only the best at the NHC can name a storm. It is up to them if the data has met their criteria for TS #5 or not.

[stevetampa33614]

Hello Edaourd

[cheezyWXguy]

1. Lets see if we have a closed LLC.

When recon reports a center, it'll only be confirming what's been obvious since shortly after sun-up. And here it is, mid-afternoon already. (This is why people get blind-sided by rapidly developing systems: They refuse to trust their own eyes and wait many additional hours for official verifications before beginning to prepare.)



Buoy 42040 is now reporting 13.6kts E wind, 19.4k gusts. This is in the clear part of the circulation, and not near the center (the buoy is farther north than the tip of the Delta).

Dude...Im going to say this in the least rude way possible. There is no reason for a warning. If the center is 30-35kts, the bands will likely not be as strong as in the core...assuming there are actually bands there eventually, because right now, the north half of the system is totally bare. If I were in the NHC, if this develops I would probably put up a ts watch/warning from LA's outer banks to possibly matagorda bay

[stevetampa33614]

I think the NHC has to be extremely careful after what happened last year with humberto. In many times they issued warnings after conditions were present. So, IMO, there just being extra careful.

Better to aire on the safe side when you are a taxpayer funded entity.


Anyone else expecting a straight to TS upgrade?

[Aric Dunn]

look the problem here is with the watches,, is this we have a soon to be upgraded something and that something is very close to the coast and yeah right now north side is pretty dry but that can change and they would have to account for that possibility so watches are likely maybe not warnings for possibly the delta west.

[CrazyC83]

What I would throw:

Tropical Storm Warning - Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City, LA (to cover Southeast Louisiana)

Tropical Storm Watch - Intracoastal City, LA to Port O'Connor, TX

[KWT]

Well recon has found west winds so now we are just waiting for a vortex message, once we get that then we are likely to see this upgraded...now the question is what wil this be upgraded to, a TD or a TS?

IMO given the SE quadrants found plenty of winds at the sufrace that would support a 35kts TS but they may be conservative who knows!

[hwego7]

I would cancel the recon today... nothing to really recon

When it comes to the tropics, expect the unexpected. Just when we think we've got everything figured out, the tropics do their own thing and send us a big box of humble pie.

[RL3AO]

I would go with no watches and no warnings. I don't see it impacting land with TS force winds in the next 48 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

we may not see a vortex from this pass.. maybe the next pass.

[americanrebel]

So my guess of 11am as TD and 5pm as TS, could half way be right. 5pm TS. Lets just hope the rest of my prediction is totally wrong.

[sealbach]

does it look like houston might get some rain? i can't water enough to keep it from burning in some areas.

[KWT]

Possibly Aric, we won't see an upgrade till we get a vortex but I think its just a matter of time before we get one given the Vis.data we've got as well as the recon reorts.