ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[hurricanefloyd5]

49knots at surface estimated by Reconn???

That can't be right because then if it's around 50kts at the surface then it would be a 60mph storm and that's not possible by the ay this thing looks?????

[stevetampa33614]

49knots at surface estimated by Reconn???

cant be. that would a be a 55mph TS. Aint no way, it barely looks like a TD on sat. must be a mess up.

[NDG]

Probably so, that is impossible if they have not come across any close to that at flight level.

[KWT]

I wouldn't stress too much hwego7 based upon the models but we dop need to watch them , to be fair the GFDL did very well with Dolly's strength so we need to watch.

NDG, that estimate was in heavy rainfall, though an estimate of current strength would be between 30-35kts looking at recon reports thus far. Wouldn't use the ones that have high rainfall returns as well, 35kts doesn't seem out of the question indeed the NHC may even have this at 35kts.

[xironman]

This thing is barely moving, the same loop still works with it http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28.5&lon=-87&zoom=1&info=vis&type=Animation&numframes=8&quality=90. Check out how everything is starting to bend into it now on the Florida side, cool. Honeyko, looks like you are going from Einstein to donkey to Einstein in a twelve hour period.

[CajunMama]

Just checking in - on vacation on Florida - something told me this would be the week something would spin-up and possibly impact Houston. Grrrrr...

Looks like a disorganized TD to me ATTM.

Jason i'm in the same boat only i'm in las vegas. It's painful watching this from afar! My only worry is we fly into houston on tuesday so i'm on the laptop watching this as often as i can.

Did you ever think about coming back tomorrow on monday and not tuseday?

No way! We're having too much fun plus we have tickets for a show monday night that i've already paid for. What would be the best thing for me is we bypass houston and fly directly into NO. Like i said though, i'm keeping a real close eye on this. Tis the season and you can never tell what will happen.

[vaffie]

49knots at surface estimated by Reconn???

Not exactly. Sustained to 36, one gust to 49. Still, quite impressive for this early on.

[stevetampa33614]

Well lets hope this is nothing and especially hope NO has nothing to do with it.

[vaffie]

1815Z picture showing a blowup of convection over the center occurring over the past half an hour. It may be starting to get its act together.

What is very interesting to note is that its got a pretty sharp and defined center by the looks of it--not broad at all. If convection fires over it consistently, it may result in a more rapid intensification than is typical.

[HURAKAN]

[stevetampa33614]

1815Z picture showing a blowup of convection over the center occurring over the past half an hour. It may be starting to get its act together.

link? SSD loop shows nothing significant.

edit thanks hurakoon

[KWT]

Looking more and more like your typical lop sided gulf of Mexico tropical cyclones. Whilst they don't always look that good they do sometimes pack a punch. Most of the convection on the southern side now with the circulation fairly close to being exposed.

[cheezyWXguy]

1815Z picture showing a blowup of convection over the center occurring over the past half an hour. It may be starting to get its act together.

link? SSD loop shows nothing significant.

edit thanks hurakoon

ssd loop is 1 frame behind ramsdis as well as some other satelite sources, and the latest ramsdis image shows convection now over the center.

[vaffie]

1815Z picture showing a blowup of convection over the center occurring over the past half an hour. It may be starting to get its act together.

link? SSD loop shows nothing significant.

edit thanks hurakoon

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[RL3AO]

Wow. 5000 posts. How sad.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looking more and more like your typical lop sided gulf of Mexico tropical cyclones. Whilst they don't always look that good they do sometimes pack a punch. Most of the convection on the southern side now with the circulation fairly close to being exposed.

actually it has improved a little i believe over the past few hours with a llc clearly evident, and conditions are expected to become more favorable, so the lopsided shear-affected type storm may not be so likely in about 24 hours.

[KWT]

Its not so much the shear cheezyWXguy its the dry air that comes in from the land, esp at mid levels that causes this lop-sided look, how many times do you see weak gulf systems look lopsided?

[HURAKAN]

AL, 91, 2008080318, , BEST, 0, 283N, 880W, 30, 1010, DB,

[MiamiensisWx]

Can we refrain from non-meteorological chat? It's becoming more difficult for me to dredge through a topic.

Personally, it seems like data and visible satellite imagery does support the existance of a broad, closed LLC near 28.2 N and 87.8 W.

The following buoy site S of Mobile, Alabama is reporting E winds north of the LLC:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

Conversely, recon is reporting SE and S winds east of the LLC, and the lack of NW and WNW wind vectors is easily explained by the fact that no NDBC moored buoys are operational and available west of the LLC.

Based on this data and the recon data sets, we may have TS Edouard near ~35 kt. Recon primarily needs to sample the area west and southwest of the LLC to find the "golden wind vectors" from the NW, WNW, or W.

[KWT]

Agreed MiamiensisWx but we will have to wait to see if recon can close off the low or not.

Hurakan, the most noteable thing there is obviously the upping of the winds to 30kts, probably in response to what recon has been finding recently.