ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[RL3AO]

The wording is a little bit confusing. It has changed little in organization but it could be a TD already. Interesting.

Is this new?



Or was it red at the previous TWO?

[vaffie]

it was orange.

[MiamiensisWx]

Code red probabilities have been assigned per latest graphic. When that fact is combined with the decision to maintain the reconnaissance mission and the NHC's language, it is significant.

Although I'm less aggressive than my original prognosis in terms of intensity, I still strongly believe it will develop.

[KWT]

If recon finds a LLC they will very likely upgrade it given its presentation, which whilst is not all that impressive is probably good enough.

Also the fact we've got code red does suggest the NHC believes this system is close to being a TD, just waiting for the confirmation of a closed LLC really.

[Ptarmigan]

Code red probabilities have been assigned per latest graphic. When that fact is combined with the decision to maintain the reconnaissance mission and the NHC's language, it is significant.

Although I'm less aggressive than my original prognosis in terms of intensity, I still strongly believe it will develop.

I expect a strong TS at most of 70 mph. I think it will be a TS with winds of 45 to 55 mph at most. It would be Edouard.

[jasons2k]

Just checking in - on vacation on Florida - something told me this would be the week something would spin-up and possibly impact Houston. Grrrrr...

Looks like a disorganized TD to me ATTM.

[KWT]

Recon already finding winds that probably support a 35kts TS, with flight level winds of 33kts I believe (at 200 meters) and also surface estimate of 34kts. If we find a closed LLC this may skip the TD stage from the looks of things.

[NDG]

Along with KWT's post, pressure of 1010 mb, it seems that my earlier estimates of 28.1N & 87.7W were fairly close.

[Cryomaniac]

Recon already finding winds that probably support a 35kts TS, with flight level winds of 33kts I believe (at 200 meters) and also surface estimate of 34kts. If we find a closed LLC this may skip the TD stage from the looks of things.

That looks possible.

[MiamiensisWx]

Recon already finding winds that probably support a 35kts TS, with flight level winds of 33kts I believe (at 200 meters) and also surface estimate of 34kts. If we find a closed LLC this may skip the TD stage from the looks of things.

If that is the case, one of our esteemed Texans (Ed Mahmoud) may earn a TS in the poster's name with the cone directly transecting Houston, Texas (based on model guidance utilized by the NHC).

[perk]

it was orange.

It was definately orange.

[CajunMama]

Just checking in - on vacation on Florida - something told me this would be the week something would spin-up and possibly impact Houston. Grrrrr...

Looks like a disorganized TD to me ATTM.

Jason i'm in the same boat only i'm in las vegas. It's painful watching this from afar! My only worry is we fly into houston on tuesday so i'm on the laptop watching this as often as i can.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.

Link: http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/sta ... XNT20.KNHC

[hurricanefloyd5]

Just checking in - on vacation on Florida - something told me this would be the week something would spin-up and possibly impact Houston. Grrrrr...

Looks like a disorganized TD to me ATTM.

Jason i'm in the same boat only i'm in las vegas. It's painful watching this from afar! My only worry is we fly into houston on tuesday so i'm on the laptop watching this as often as i can.

Did you ever think about coming back tomorrow on monday and not tuseday?

[hwego7]

The 12z GFDL has me concerned...it intensifies it right up to landfall and brings it in as a 991mb cat 1 hurricane.

[stevetampa33614]

Well. Looks pretty good this afternoon

[Honeyko]

12Z runs not up yet, but FSU phase diagrams from various models, including 6Z GFDL, suggests this becomes only weakly warm core, so it never becomes a purely tropical system.

Bah! I say, Bah!

This is the GOM. Total crap systems will explode into hurricanes in less than a day, and have done so as recently as last year under less favorable dynamics. 91 may putter along into Houston as a weak TS, or it could jump from 20kts to 45kts to 80kts in less than twelve hours out over a Loop Current eddy, and have everybody crapping their drawers tomorrow morning. Never, ever trust these things; and throw many grains of salt over your left shoulder when contemplating model runs using umpitty-hour old spotty data concerning the trends of a GOM storm, and particularly when they're in formative stages.

[stevetampa33614]

12Z runs not up yet, but FSU phase diagrams from various models, including 6Z GFDL, suggests this becomes only weakly warm core, so it never becomes a purely tropical system.

Bah! I say, Bah!

This is the GOM. Total crap systems will explode into hurricanes in less than a day, and have done so as recently as this july.

Here I fixed it for you

[NDG]

49knots at surface estimated by Reconn???

[RL3AO]

49knots at surface estimated by Reconn???

They had problems during Cristobal with SMFR. Hopefully its not repeating itself.