ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Honeyko]

Notice that winds in the FL pan are onshore rather than offshore at present. This indicates, to me, that the system is still half-frontal in nature, with the northeast half being outflow-dominated. The southwestern side is becoming increasingly impressive, however, with a moist feed setting up across the whole breadth of the central Gulf.

I expect the current apparent egg-shaped center will be drawn southwest under the strongest updrafting towers.

[KWT]

KatDaddy, Alicia looks better then this does but then again I don't think this syastem looks all thatbad either, however there is factors that is really preventing strengthening now, clearly some dry air on that western side, as you sort of expect in a develop tropical cyclone in the Gulf (alot of systems that form in the gulf do tend to be lop-sided) and there is also some shear present as well.

[tailgater]

Looks like a T.D. to this veteran gawker. Dry air on it's northern side and a little northern shear, but mostly the dry air are helping to keep this one from developing ATTM.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Disclaimer- Amateur and Unofficial, Not Endorsed by Storm2K:

Best ideas and data for models won't be available until aircraft does or doesn't locate a center, so 0Z model runs should be better than 12Z runs.


However, NAM/Canadian idea of a tropical depression or tropical storm, somewhere general vicinity of Houston-Galveston (Matagorda to Sabine River) seems pretty reasonable at the moment. I don't think I'm w*shcasting, but a TD/TS that drops needed rain would be perfect. Only fly in the ointment is NAM and GFS both keep one inch isohyet just South of my house, two or three inches would be better.

[KWT]

I'm not sure whether there is enough for a TD but if recon finds a closed circulation they may go for it. Personally i want to see it wrap a little better seems a little too linear for my liking depsite there obviously being a circulation to some extent.

[Ptarmigan]

Invest 91L vs Alicia in the early stages:

They almost look alike, except 91L looks like two areas of convection, while Alicia is one whole convection. They are almost in the same area though.

[Bailey1777]

When should recon get there if it's a go?

[gboudx]

When should recon get there if it's a go?

According to the recon thread, they have departed. I suggest keeping an eye on that thread for updates.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Notice that winds in the FL pan are onshore rather than offshore at present. This indicates, to me, that the system is still half-frontal in nature, with the northeast half being outflow-dominated. The southwestern side is becoming increasingly impressive, however, with a moist feed setting up across the whole breadth of the central Gulf.

I expect the current apparent egg-shaped center will be drawn southwest under the strongest updrafting towers.

12Z runs not up yet, but FSU phase diagrams from various models, including 6Z GFDL, suggests this becomes only weakly warm core, so it never becomes a purely tropical system.


That dry air is, no doubt, what is reducing precip predictions for my lawn.

[KWT]

The further south into the gulf this system can get before heading westward the better for the systems chances to strengthen as the dry air would become less of an issue the further away from land it can get.

[Aric Dunn]

what did you all do? i leave for a few days and you all mustered up a soon to be TD.

[funster]

From the Fort Worth NWS discussing the strength of the ridge:

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. THERE IS VAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FATE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL
STORM OR NOT...IT SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
AT LEAST SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

906
ABNT20 KNHC 031736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
160 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
FORMED. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/

[NDG]

I don't see a low pressure center to be centered any further south than 28N, I see it near 28.1N & 87.7W.

[KWT]

If I'd have to guess on this systems current movement it'd be about SSW but with recon in we should get several passes through the system and if there is a center we should get a good indication of its track during that time.

[NDG]

906
ABNT20 KNHC 031736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
160 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
FORMED. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/

I guess the 2 AM time was a type error

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...CORRECT AM TO PM...

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
160 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
FORMED. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM

[HURAKAN]

The wording is a little bit confusing. It has changed little in organization but it could be a TD already. Interesting.

[WmE]

The wording is a little bit confusing. It has changed little in organization but it could be a TD already. Interesting.

Yeah, that makes me wonder if they will upgrade it if a closed LLC has formed.

[BigA]

The "grain of salt" shear map shows that the western gulf is about as shearless as you can get, somewhat better conditions than 91L is over right now.



This is the tendency map but note dark blue over western gulf.