ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[KWT]

Yeah I agree vbhoutex there is at least hints of a circulation trying to get going, I think all recon needs is a hint and that should be good enough to send them in there to check it out.

[cycloneye]

WONT41 KNHC 031456
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE WEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1456.shtml?

[Dean4Storms]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like there is a circulation at 28N 87W. The northern part is exposed with the convection limited to the southern semicircle. Once a few more satellite frames are in to confirm the circulation, the NHC will decide to send recon. Chances are recon will find a weak depression. Given the proxcimity to land it should be upgraded provided the convection remains. I don't expect any rapid intensification due to dry air, only slow intensification. It will have a good shot at getting named as it approaches the western GOM......MGC

I agree with you there MGC, looks like the process of a developing LLC is taking place today so I would send the Recon. Looks like it will struggle against the dry air and northerly shear but with the warm SST's it could become a strong TS or minimal hurricane by the time it reaches any landfall. I've seen many a sheared unorganized hurricane in the Gulf, one named Earl comes to mind in 98........


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1998earl.html

[crazycajuncane]

I for one appreciate the rain this storm sent through here this morning. We were supposed to reach a high temp of like 98 or 99. I guess this is still possible, but it cooled off quite a bit from the rain.

Interesting system out there. These are the most fun storms to watch. The ones that show up in your back yard!

Will be keeping an eye out

[Mecklenburg]

oohhh... Edouard, is that you?

[Mecklenburg]

WONT41 KNHC 031456
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE WEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1456.shtml?

i don't understand why it's marginally favorable... heck it's the GOM!?!...

[KWT]

Maybe because of the slight shear that seems to be present on the system Mecklenburg as the center does appear to be just on the northern side of the convective mass.

Still hardly surprising we will have recon into this system given there is certainly hints of a circulation.

Sounds like they are expecting to go ahead and develop into our 5th system of the season.

[Ivanhater]

If the low pressure area is still south of Pensacola, this hasnt moved west at all really, just further south, which means more time over water and less interaction with land..but we will see

[NDG]

WONT41 KNHC 031456
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE WEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1456.shtml?

i don't understand why it's marginally favorable... heck it's the GOM!?!...

It has been getting light northerly shear, at the mid & upper levels since yesterday.
Better UL conditions later tonight or tomorrow morning.

[vaffie]

The buoy just to its north (42040) switched to a light east wind a couple hours ago, and has been steadily increasing over the past hour, up to 15-20 mph now. It seems to be organizing now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

[ROCK]

The buoy just to its north (42040) switched to a light east wind a couple hours ago, and has been steadily increasing over the past hour, up to 15-20 mph now. It seems to be organizing now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

yep, a LLC is born....It is so awe inspiring to see TC genensis.......

[KWT]

Yep there is a little bit of shear but its not all that severe mind you and it will ease off.

Ivanhater, yep if that is the location then it hasn't really moved much westwards but gone pretty much to the south, maybe SSW.

Also it certainly does look like its on its way to steadily organising, recon shall be interesting!

[Dave C]

Pressures still rising at area buoys, Should see pressure drops soon if anythings going to come of this dev. circulation. Has anyone else had trouble with TWC? I've been trying to catch Steve Lyons on Trop. update but the reception keeps cutting out .

[KWT]

Yeah Dave I think its only just developing though so I'd give it a few hours before seeing any more noticeable pressure drops occuring IMO.

[hurricanetrack]

In reference to this vis loop from the floater over 91L, did anyone in Texas notice/experience that awesome outflow boundary clearly seen on satellite? Looks like it went through Houston/Galveston and on past Freeport over the last few hours. Hope you all get some rain from 91L- you sure need it!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Nimbus]

Slight pressure drop at the mid gulf buoy, don't know if that means the surface trough is deepening further south or not?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[hurrican19]

In reference to this vis loop from the floater over 91L, did anyone in Texas notice/experience that awesome outflow boundary clearly seen on satellite? Looks like it went through Houston/Galveston and on past Freeport over the last few hours. Hope you all get some rain from 91L- you sure need it!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Not much rain in Orange County, TX, just about a 40-45mph windgust with the system. Central TX needs the rain a lot worse than the Beaumont/Port Arthur area, I hope this system can give those guys something! Lake levels up that way are dropping like a rock..

[tailgater]

much less worried about this than I was yesterday

seems as if this is getting some good northerly shear, which has let the dry air to keep the convective activity in check

I would cancel the recon today... nothing to really recon

I'd just as soon they did send the plane. I'll send 50 bucks if if they help paying for fuel.

[KWT]

tailgater, I agree and besides I'm rather suspect about that region between 87-88W.

Convection has weakened a touch over the last few hours but it will always wax and wane given its strength at the moment.

[lrak]

much less worried about this than I was yesterday

seems as if this is getting some good northerly shear, which has let the dry air to keep the convective activity in check

I would cancel the recon today... nothing to really recon

I'd just as soon they did send the plane. I'll send 50 bucks if if they help paying for fuel.

Who needs recon, we got buoys, and the satellite until dark, so as long as the public doesn't here about it we can declare the "D" word!