ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[KWT]

Well the strength issue really does depend on how far offshore it gets before coming back towards land again, if it can't get far enough then indeed this probably will max out like an Erin but you just can't say for certain just yet.

[wxman57]

Wind shift off Dauphin Island - due to thunderstorm outflow, or an improving 91L?

¿ Quien Sabes ?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=CDT

See my surface plot a few posts back. The weak surface trof axis just passed by 42040. Winds west of the trof axis are out of the west. East of the axis they're out of the south.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with wxman57. There is no convection over the trough its self, so no development within the next 12-24 hours. You can post pictures of crows after each of my forecast for the rest of the month if the recon finds a depression. Because I sure as heck don't think this will be one today. Take that to the bank that this will not be a depression before 8pm est.

[cycloneye]

03/1145 UTC 28.2N 86.4W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[lrak]

thats a lot futher west than I expected

[KWT]

Well if recon does go in and finds a closed circulation with those T numbers it would get upgraded. However right now I also agree that there probably isn't a low level circulation.

[KatDaddy]

TCFA Issued:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[cycloneye]

The 12:00 UTC ATCF best track:


AL, 91, 2008080312, , BEST, 0, 284N, 870W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[wxman57]

03/1145 UTC 28.2N 86.4W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

There's nothing anywhere near that lat/lon. Pressures are lower 150nm to the west. Just straight south winds east of the trof axis there. I'd look farther west for any possible development. Those T numbers are pretty meaningless as there's no surface circulation.

[Chacor]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 030530Z AUG 08//
WTNT01 KNGU 030600
UNCLAS //N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 29.4N 87.0W TO 27.7N 89.6W DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF PENSACOLA, FLORIDA. LITTLE MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE
REGION SHOW 15 TO 20 KT SURFACE WINDS WITH SURFACE PRESSURES
SLOWLY FALLING. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (84F - 86F) AND UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, OR CANCELLED
BY 040600Z AUG 08.//

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/viewt ... cal/wtnt01

[Derek Ortt]

I think they fixed the MLC and not the LLC for the Dvorak estimate

[hwego7]

TCHP is not on its side.

Yes it is...right now we don't even have a tropical depression. Dolly underwent rapid intensification to major hurricane status over less TCHP. Felix strengthened into a category 5 hurricane over TCHP of less than 20. There is a bad misconception out there about TCHP and I'm not sure where it came from, but it's not true.



The pic above is what Felix crossed over as it strengthened into a category 5 hurricane prior to landfall. TCHP is very favorable in the GOM and will support a catastrophic hurricane.

[KatDaddy]

Here is a surface plot from Oceanweather.com

[hwego7]

I think it has a good chance of spinning up a weak surface low before it moves inland into the upper TX coast or SW Louisiana in about 36 hours

None of the computer models are forecasting this to reach land sooner than 48 hours and the GFDL is at 54 hours. It is moving at 3kts at the moment and even drifting to the west or west-southwest. What do you see that will cause this to speed up drastically enough to make landfall in 36 hours?

[wxman57]

I think it has a good chance of spinning up a weak surface low before it moves inland into the upper TX coast or SW Louisiana in about 36 hours

None of the computer models is forecasting this to reach land sooner than 48 hours and the GFDL is at 54 hours. It is moving at less than 10mph at the moment and even drifting to the west or west-southwest. What do you see that will cause this to speed up drastically enough to make landfall in 36 hours?

Yeah, it'll probably be Tuesday morning before it moves inland. New runs are slower.

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/

The NRL track does not seem to show a west movement.

[lonelymike]

Wonder if this little system will spike oil prices. Won't this move thru an area of gulf oil and gas rigs?

[KWT]

Yep this should have a good 48hrs over waters, its enough time to develop a core and then strengthen into a decent TS still IMO esp if it does develop quickly. Also the TCFA does suggest a SW motion at a fairly slow rate.

Looks like the estimate of 27W is close but of course without a decent LLC its hard to say exactly where about it is.

[wxman57]

Wonder if this little system will spike oil prices. Won't this move thru an area of gulf oil and gas rigs?

That won't matter. Oil companies aren't going to be evacuating the rigs. It'll just be an inconvenience for the guys working offshore.

[ROCK]

28N 87W is were I suspect a broad LLC is trying to form just by looking at am vis loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html