ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[KWT]

It'll be interesting to see what hpapens when the land heats up, should see some greater convective flare-up I'd guess and more moisture therefore for this system to tap into overland.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

NHC wouldn't upgrade even if it does appear there is a small circulation, they may as well wait for recon to confirm everything as it'll be in there before too long.

Still looking compact and still looks like its going to form just a matter of when it develops that LLC. when it does this will probably be upgraded.

I personally hope they treat this as badly as 99L. I hope they wait 12 hours for more organizion once the recon starts to find a closed LLC. I personally don't see much of a LLC as of yet myself, so they may not even find one. We will see things can change very fast with these systems over warm waters and low shear.

Heck they have 48-56 hours before landfall. No rush with the upgrade. That is because I went to see 99L become a depression first.

[A1A]

Hmmm
Station MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL Winds ESE
Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL Winds NW
Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA Winds WSW

[physicx07]

42003 at 25° 54' 20" N 85° 23' 30" W just went south an hour and a half or so ago. And pressures are higher further to the southeast according to the buoy/station near Key West, so if it is a low near the convection that would be consistent.

Diurnal land/sea breeze? Currently land breeze perhaps now that it's near dawn. I'd like to see more surface ob data for a couple hours first, personally.

There's also the buoys not near land.

[KWT]

Yeah but you know Matt that they will end up upgrading probably as soon as they find a LLC as convection has been bursting pretty much in the same spot now for 24hrs. As for 99l, well I agree with you but thats upto the NHC really...

[Honeyko]

It's a bloody shame there's not a radar out on one of those platforms.

[KWT]

Yep that would give us a good indication of whats going on out in the gulf, as it happens that would actually be an interesting I think?

[Jagno]

I'd love to know what this system is doing as well but it seems we'll have to wait for recon some time this afternoon.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Gulf/IR/latest/latest.gif

[KWT]

Yep I believe recon is going into the system around 18z.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031128
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS VERY POORLY
ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Thunder44]

Yep I believe recon is going into the system around 18z.

It still says "if necessary" in the 8am TWO, so it's not certain yet.

[lrak]

From last night to this morning its bigger, still moving sw, and looks better organized IMO.

[wxman57]

Currently, there's nothing to fly a recon plane into. Plenty of observations offshore (see my plot below). I see no indications of any lower pressure offshore today, and certainly no low forming offshore. There does appear to be a weak low pressure area just west of Baton Rouge, LA, and there's a weak surface trof extending from eastern Mississippi southward into the Gulf (I drew it on the chart below) but that's about it. I think it has a good chance of spinning up a weak surface low before it moves inland into the upper TX coast or SW Louisiana in about 36 hours, but it probably won't be a depression today.

[KWT]

Yep Thunder44 of course its not a certainty but you've got a big convective mass in the Gulf and I think the NHC won't take the risk that something is going on out there. wxman57 does make the point that surface obs aren't showing anything but I think recon should still have a little look into this system just in case.

[O Town]

I wonder why CIMSS doesn't have this invest on their Tropical home page?
Odd.

Definitely lots more convection this morning than when I went to bed last night.

[KWT]

Also you can really see the trof line that Wxmna57 there which is probably helping to allow convection to flare up as well I guess.

[Honeyko]

Well...huh. It looks like a total piece of crap now....

Welcome to hurricane science: Where you can go from Einstein to donkey in a few hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Well...huh. It looks like a total piece of crap now....

Welcome to hurricane science: Where you can go from Einstein to donkey in a few hours.

I don't think this will be any more then a 40-45 knot Erin, Grace like tropical storm at landfall. The convection will have to form over the trough to even start the development. In yes you can go to Einstein to a donkey in forecasting anything in the tropics very fast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wind shift off Dauphin Island - due to thunderstorm outflow, or an improving 91L?

¿ Quien Sabes ?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Same buoy - lower than this time yesterday, but rate of pressure fall from 91L less than rate of diurnal pressure rise. So I don't know if wind shift from t-storm outflow or the start of something...