ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Viper54r]

Thanks guys, It has been awhile since I watched the tropics, esp. a storm in the formative stage.
Tim

Do you post on TD.com? This storm looks very impressive, I will be watching it closely for you guys.

[Chacor]

12-hour movement from 12z to 00z based on ATCF positions:
30.3N 87.1W to 29.0N 87.0W

183°, 12 km/h, or 7.5 mph.

[Steve]

>>So much for diminishing convection. It's Refiring over the MLC.

The surface trof is probably the triggering mechanism though for the mid level instability. I haven't looked at the charts, sitting here drinking Abita and just surfing, but there appears to be a split in the mid-upper flow which may provide sufficient dynamics and support to get something cranking beyond the trough at the surface.

NHC has it in "orange" now (Medium Potential) and is stating, "A surface trough of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers is located in the north-central GOM. Surface pressures are falling in the area and environmental conditions appear to be favorable for slow development. This system could become a TD during the next couple of days as it moves slowly to the W or WSW. A recon plane will investigate Sunday if necessary.

Bear watch certainly on here.

Steve

[Bailey1777]

When you see cloud tops ballooning upwards like that what does it represent, tropically speaking?

[LSU2001]

Thanks guys, It has been awhile since I watched the tropics, esp. a storm in the formative stage.
Tim

Do you post on TD.com? This storm looks very impressive, I will be watching it closely for you guys.

Tigerdroppings.com?
If so then yes I post on TD.com
Tim

[stevetampa33614]

When you see cloud tops ballooning upwards like that what does it represent, tropically speaking?

Intensification of the thunderstorms on a local level usually. Doesnt mean much on the whole for a system.

[Viper54r]

Thanks guys, It has been awhile since I watched the tropics, esp. a storm in the formative stage.
Tim

Do you post on TD.com? This storm looks very impressive, I will be watching it closely for you guys.

Tigerdroppings.com?
If so then yes I post on TD.com
Tim

Whats your name over there...and I see convection

[wxman57]

There are lots and lots of surface obs out in the Gulf, so we'll know if any surface low starts to form pretty quickly. Won't have to rely on IR imagery. I'm looking at a surface plot now and all I see is a weak high center just off the mid LA coast (about 1015mb).To the east, pressures are down to about 1012.4MB just south of the FL Panhandle, but winds are out of the SW-W all across the northern Gulf, as they have been for days. Absolutely no evidence of a low center in the obs. In fact, I can't see any well-defined surface trof in the obs, either. That'll have to wait until we have persistent heavy convection over an area.

I do think there's a good chance a TD/TS will form. It may not be any better organized than 98L/99L was near Africa, but the NHC won't ignore a system that's having an impact along the Gulf lease areas or coastal areas. With any luck, we can get some rain out of it in southeast Texas Monday afternoon/evening and Tuesday. Oh, and I suspect that it'll track right of the initial model runs, maybe to the upper TX coast to SW LA.

[LSU2001]

same as here LSU2001
tim

[wxman57]

12-hour movement from 12z to 00z based on ATCF positions:
30.3N 87.1W to 29.0N 87.0W

183°, 12 km/h, or 7.5 mph.

Remember, there's nothing to track movement on yet. All we have are thunderstorms blowing up in different areas. Each model run will focus on the latest build-up. To estimate any movement, zoom out on satellite and look at where the whole area is generally moving/building.

[Bailey1777]

I meant why does this occur what is at work right there to cause the "BOOM".

[dixiebreeze]

91L now on IR Floater:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[Derek Ortt]

When you see cloud tops ballooning upwards like that what does it represent, tropically speaking?

Intensification of the thunderstorms on a local level usually. Doesnt mean much on the whole for a system.

not sure where to begin with that statement

The convection results in additional low-level convergence. Its the simple principle of mass continuity (which in pressure coodinates is du/dx+dv/dy = -dw/dp)

the convergence also increases the vorticity of the system, which allows for a closed LLC to form

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There are lots and lots of surface obs out in the Gulf, so we'll know if any surface low starts to form pretty quickly. Won't have to rely on IR imagery. I'm looking at a surface plot now and all I see is a weak high center just off the mid LA coast (about 1015mb).To the east, pressures are down to about 1012.4MB just south of the FL Panhandle, but winds are out of the SW-W all across the northern Gulf, as they have been for days. Absolutely no evidence of a low center in the obs. In fact, I can't see any well-defined surface trof in the obs, either. That'll have to wait until we have persistent heavy convection over an area.

I do think there's a good chance a TD/TS will form. It may not be any better organized than 98L/99L was near Africa, but the NHC won't ignore a system that's having an impact along the Gulf lease areas or coastal areas. With any luck, we can get some rain out of it in southeast Texas Monday afternoon/evening and Tuesday. Oh, and I suspect that it'll track right of the initial model runs, maybe to the upper TX coast to SW LA.

I agree wxman57.

Also with convection forming within the area that promotes rising air that moves into the area at the lower levels=convergence, and divergence at the upper levels. So a LLC will form if it can stay over the area long enough. Not always but we will have to see.

[Bailey1777]

Thanks Derek that is what I was looking for.

[stevetampa33614]

Thanks Derek that is what I was looking for.

I had a post but then I changed it to just say ask a met. Then I changed it again.

after you watch these enough you will storms flare and die with DMAX/DMIN like any thunderstorm. However once some form of organization is present there usually is a consistency with high cloud tops.

[lrak]

will this type of flow keep it out over the Gulf longer? Fixed, and next time I will NOT ask a Met!

[Derek Ortt]

please do NOT ask questions of the mets in this thread

please ask them in the tropical analysis thread. The answers just get buried here (as do many of the questions) beneath the chatter

[LSU2001]

I meant why does this occur what is at work right there to cause the "BOOM".

I'll take a complete laymans stab at your question.

The warm water below a developing low pressure system provides a tremendous amount of energy. IF the convection can form and become established it will mushroom up into very high thunderstorms. The upward rush of air creates a partial void at the surface which is filled with surrounding air. IF the convection is strong enough and the conditions are favorable a vortex (LLC) will be created which will then serve to feed the convection. The key to the whole process is warm water and good upper level support.
I am sure that If i am wrong some of the pro's will correct me.
Tim

[Ed Mahmoud]

please do NOT ask questions of the mets in this thread

please ask them in the tropical analysis thread. The answers just get buried here (as do many of the questions) beneath the chatter

That is why I just asked a question there...