ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[TampaFl]

Nice closeup loop of some counterclockwise circulation. Looks to be drifting south: Thoughts & comments welcomed.

Link to loop:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Florida

[RL3AO]

GFS is further north this run. Has landfall at Jefferson County.

[Dean4Storms]

Ridges are not smooth, with the system this close to the upper Gulf Coast any stair stepping along the ridge could mean a landfall along the upper TX coast to points eastward. Dependant on how strong a system develops and exactly where could make all the difference in the world in intensity (Further South development would likely mean more time over open warm water and possibly over the Loop Current and a landfall further Westward) and track (Further north development could mean less time over the Gulf and any wobble could likely bring it ashore alot further north and east.)

[MiamiensisWx]

Significant sea level pressure decreases are occurring near the strongest thunderstorms due S of Dauphine Island, Alabama. Here's the data from this buoy station.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )

This has been persistent trend, as evidenced by the archived hourly data from the station.

Greatest 850 mb LL vorticity is situated in this vicinity as well:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

If a LLC will develop, it may occur in this vicinity, which is SW of the MLC.

[Derek Ortt]

have created a parallel thread in TA for mets to post their analysis and for those with questions to ask them

[Mecklenburg]

how are the temps in the coastal GOM?

[Kludge]

My personal favorite is the EXTRAP model.

I love it. Persistence is the key. With 91L stationary, though, the EXTRAP model may indicate that we could be here for a while.

Go WEST, Invest, my lawn sprinklers need a break.

[RL3AO]

how are the temps in the coastal GOM?

28C+

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Go WEST, Invest, my lawn sprinklers need a break.

amen brother!...feel the same way here at the lake too

[southerngale]

have created a parallel thread in TA for mets to post their analysis and for those with questions to ask them

Sometimes questions get lost in this main thread when it's really busy, so if y'all want to ask a question, Derek's thread in the Tropical Analysis thread is a great place to ask it. It's the sub-forum at the top of this forum, or here's the direct link.

[marcus B]

I'd love to see the rain, just not the flooding.

[rockyman]

Nothing really new...but shows that New Orleans TV stations are starting to take notice:

http://www.wwltv.com/topstories/stories ... 40ad6.html

[rockyman]

[MGC]

There does appear to be some mid level spin south of the Florida panhandle. This is very simular to last weeks disturbance. It should eventually track westward below the large heat ridge to its NW. Only time will tell if a surface circulation developes. Will have to keep an eye on this one.....MGC

[MiamiensisWx]

Significant sea level pressure decreases are occurring near the strongest thunderstorms due S of Dauphine Island, Alabama. Here's the data from this buoy station.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )

This has been persistent trend, as evidenced by the archived hourly data from the station.

Greatest 850 mb LL vorticity is situated in this vicinity as well:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

If a LLC will develop, it may occur in this vicinity, which is SW of the MLC.

Supporting presentation:

http://img397.imageshack.us/img397/4853/91lllcaug2081cs0.png

Latest GOES IR and visible imagery indicates new convection is developing with overshooting tops in the vicinity of the possible LLC formation.

Watch the thunderstorms immediately SE of the Mississippi Delta:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

With the gulf heat content, low shear and favorable
moist environment this should intensify rapidly:
24 hours: 55 mph
48 hours: 85 mph
72 hours: (if still over water): 110 mph into Southeast
Texas

[dixiebreeze]

Good informative post, Miami, with the potential LLC and MLC graph. Thanks.

[LaBreeze]

How strong is your feeling on this Tampa Bay Hurricane?

[MiamiensisWx]

Significant sea level pressure decreases are occurring near the strongest thunderstorms due S of Dauphine Island, Alabama. Here's the data from this buoy station.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )

This has been persistent trend, as evidenced by the archived hourly data from the station.

Greatest 850 mb LL vorticity is situated in this vicinity as well:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

If a LLC will develop, it may occur in this vicinity, which is SW of the MLC.

Supporting presentation:

http://img397.imageshack.us/img397/4853/91lllcaug2081cs0.png

Latest GOES IR and visible imagery indicates new convection is developing with overshooting tops in the vicinity of the possible LLC formation.

Watch the thunderstorms immediately SE of the Mississippi Delta:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

Aric Dunn and ronjon would pick up on this trend rapidly...

This would result in more time over water further SW.

[Normandy]

Very interesting system....Couple of things I notice:

1. I concur with Miami's analysis of the possible low level center...pressure drops are occurring and thunderstorms are building in that general vicinity. That placement of an LLC, along with a SW drift over the next 24-36 hours, puts this system in a great location to threaten the Upper TX coast should it deepen.

2. The alicia analog actually seems good here, although exact landfall location is still to early to be determined.