Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[Emmett_Brown]

Well we saw what you are talking about with pre-Dolly as well, it looked a dead certain to be a TD yet several times recon could only find a broad low with no tighter center.

Yes, you are right, Dolly was another good example. I do think that this has a likelyhood to develop, however, just like Dolly.
Shear will be a bit of a problem in 48 hours, but probably not enough to kill it, since the ULL is retrograding and weakening per GFS over the next 48 hours.

[HURAKAN]

[Just Joshing You]

That looks weird HURAKAN

[HURAKAN]

[Recurve]

Looking decent. Nice inflow swirls, sparse convection.






Direct link:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

[KWT]

It does indeed look decent, may just need a little more organising though before this becomes well organised enough to be a tropical depression IMO, still I think come next Dmax and things may look interesting.

also note the TCFA suggests the disturbance is most likely to develop in a zone west of where it is suggesting a westerly track for the next 48hrs.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looking decent. Nice inflow swirls, sparse convection.






Direct link:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

well, based on that loop, it looks very close to having a llc. I see both a southerly and northerly inflow channel, however the low clouds on the southern side of the system dont appear to have much of a westerly movement. I think this problem will be gone in about 24 hours, as long as convection continues to increase.

['CaneFreak]

Anyone notice that the LLC was exposed on the S side due to some increasing SW shear?

18.5N 44.5W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[KWT]

Yeah the circulation does seem to be lacking on the southern side and that was shown by the much earlier Qscat as well.
The foward speed and shear probably isn't helping but we will see.

[wxman57]

I think it looks worse than it has the past 24-36 hours as far as any circulation. Previously, it had a rather tight circulation, though the QS couldn't see it at the surface. Now, it's opened up and broad. No tight center. No threat to the Caribbean, slim chance of any east U.S. Coast should it develop. Most likely it'll recurve and not threaten any land areas.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree wxman57 I think the system probably has opened up on that southern side. Still if it can keep bursting convection eventually I'd have thought it will close it back off its just a matter of when IMO.

Also only land risk would be for bermuda but Bertha did come very close to that island and given steering currents are broadly the same does need watching.

[CrazyC83]

I don't really see this developing into anything significant - which is unfortunate since it would give 90L (which IMO could be a much more serious threat) an escape hatch.

[RL3AO]

It has some -70C cloud tops.

['CaneFreak]

wrong thread

[RL3AO]

wrong thread

whatcha talkin bout CaneFreak?

[CrazyC83]

For the sake of the Caribbean, they need to hope this develops soon and builds a weakness in...

[Gustywind]

Should it comes quickly
A few disturbed areas, but nothing imminent
Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
8:55 a.m. ET 8/2/2008
There are a few disturbed areas in the tropics, but none that is likely to develop rapidly.
Elsewhere in the basin, a weak low centered over 1200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands has triggered a bit of convection and could strengthen slowly over the next day or two as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

[Derek Ortt]

put a floater on it at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 28W FROM 7N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 TO
20 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT 11N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 42W FROM 12N TO 23N IS MOVING W
ABOUT 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT
18N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED MOSTLY
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W AND
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A 0850Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES SEVERAL 20 TO 25 KT WIND BARBS EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W
AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS ADDED BASED ON AN
ANALYSIS OF GOES INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND OVER/NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM NEAR 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W/79W IS MOVING
W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG AND OFF THE PANAMA COAST
AND N OF JAMAICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 9N35W 7N50W 8N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 7N19W TO 7N23W LINE AND ALSO ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 10W AND 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER MEXICO
NEAR 21N99W AND IS MOVING W 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED OVER
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 93W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED JUST
W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION LOCATED N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. A
WELL-DEFINED ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OVER W
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE
SW QUADRANT.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 45W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N74W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
LOCATED WITHIN 5 TO 6 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...6 TO 7 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W AND IS MOVING WNW ABOUT 10
KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION INTO THE FAR NE
CARIBBEAN. WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE
SURFACE A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 31N38W TO 28N50W TO 26N65W INTO S FLORIDA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 45W...
OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 32N30W...MOVING NE 10 TO
15 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR
26N35W. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WINDS ARE EASTERLY ALOFT AND
MEASURE UP TO 40 KT AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS.

$$
CAB

[cycloneye]

778
ABNT20 KNHC 021738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE
MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SUNDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IF NECESSARY...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT ABOUT 1150
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.


A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=