Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[jaxfladude]

I am so lazy, is 99L ex-98L or another invest altogether?
Again I am too lazy to read a previous page or two before posting, it is a Friday thing......

[cycloneye]

is 99L ex-98L or another invest altogether?

Is the same system with a different number.As 98L was deactivated by ATCF,then 99L was tagged for the same low pressure.

[cycloneye]

ATCF best track at 00:00 UTC:

AL, 99, 2008080200, , BEST, 0, 183N, 389W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[KWT]

Well 99L has dipped a touch in latitude again now down to 18.3N, still doesn't look great but we shall see what happens, the longer it stays the weak the further south it will probably stay in this case.

[stevetampa33614]

Ya she lost a degree in Lat. For sure we are gonna have to watch this thing. Cant say with confidence any recurve is gonna happen.

This system really is in an awful enviroment and has been. Dry air, Shear, SAL. I mean such persistance. Maybe tommorrow and hopefully it will just be gone.

Its just being suprised sexed by the Sahara Dust Storm

[Blown Away]

If I'm reading the TAFB correctly, in 72 hours the TAFB has 99L as wave but S of 20N near 60W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[cycloneye]

After a few hours devoid of convection,it seems that mini bursts are occuring,but not over the low.

[gatorcane]

It's likely we will see some increased convection later on tonight because the SSTs are warming and DMIN is on the way.

[blp]

It is getting closer to the 27C SST's. That ULL to the NW still looks to be providing some strong shear.

[gatorcane]

and something else to note. I estimate 99L is still stair-stepping downward between 270 and 265....remember the GFDL and GFS predicted this more WSW movement and those models may just be on to something.

Then again both these models dissipate 99L. Still TAFB is moving the wave attached to 99L through the Leewards now instead of north of it showing their respect for the global models and not the shallow BAMS which are recurving 99L much too quickly. I see no reason to recurve 99L so quickly at the moment.

Of course the 7-10 day timeframe shows increase recurve possibilities given the EC trough setup expected to become established by then. But Euro and GFSX show H5 steering that would suggest a long-term recurve of whatever 99L becomes.

[blp]

Seems to me like that ULL at 26N & 50W is not moving much. 99L is going to hit some heavy shear if that ULL does not start move out of the way. Might be why the models don't seem to develop this once it gets closer to the islands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[Sanibel]

The basin is convection-less again. I'm worried my 15-9-4 prediction is high now.

[HURAKAN]

The basin is convection-less again. I'm worried my 15-9-4 prediction is high now.

It's August 1st. In 2004 we were talking about Alex at this point. Don't worry about your prediction.

[Category 5]

The basin is convection-less again. I'm worried my 15-9-4 prediction is high now.

To put it bluntly your worries are quite silly. It's only August 2nd, just look at these numbers.

As of August 2nd.

2008: 4/2/1 (Final Numbers ?/?/?)
2007: 3/0/0 (Final numbers 15/6/2)
2004: 1/0/0 (Final numbers 15/9/6)
2003: 4/2/0 (Final numbers 16/7/3)
2001: 2/0/0 (Final numbers 15/9/4)

[HURAKAN]

99L pops!

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has a very well defined LLC still. But the shear has kepted it from developing convection over it. If the shear where to lower/weaken it would become a deperssion fairly quickly. We will see what happens. Who ever that thinks that this should not be a invest needs to buy me a bridge in new york.

[fasterdisaster]

Its just being suprised sexed by the Sahara Dust Storm

stairs?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Convection making a comeback.


Looks to have a nice low level rotation, but may be moving fast enough there are no West winds at the surface. But it is looking better now than last night.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Its just being suprised sexed by the Sahara Dust Storm

For some reason, I picture Mike Row of 'Dirty Jobs', who has sexed snakes before on his show as one of his 'dirty jobs'.