Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[KWT]

Yeah I tend to agree wxman57, of course if it does take a very similar track it will go over the upwelled waters that Bertha left (yep they are still there to some degree...) and also obviously it will once again be a threat to Bermuda but we will have to wait and see!

[gatorcane]

To me it looks like it is moving between 265 and 270, and ever-so slightly losing lattitude. That would suggest some strong ridging building in to the north of 99Ls current position.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

This is a well defined low,but still shear is not letting convection stay for too long.

[KWT]

Well the 6hr movement went from 18.5 to a 18.4 so it did slightly lose latitude though generally longer term motion seems to be pretty close to due west.

What should be noted is that at this time Bertha was decently south of 15N at 35W...

[stevetampa33614]

Looks like a TS, with the top blown off.


Anybody remember Chris in 2006? The storm that got the holy crap beat out of it every second of its pitiful life. Maybe we are seeing a run up of 2006 like conditions out there. who knows.

Almost Identical in size, shape, and convection.



Cool.

[gatorcane]

Well the 6hr movement went from 18.5 to a 18.4 so it did slightly lose latitude though generally longer term motion seems to be pretty close to due west.

What should be noted is that at this time Bertha was decently south of 15N at 35W...

Actually Bertha was located about the same place 99L is located now (maybe a little bit further south) but Bertha was moving WNW already under a weaker ridge...so over the next couple of days it looks like 99L will be tracking a little bit lower in lattitude than Bertha because 99L should move between 270 and 265 for the next several days.

[KWT]

Well the thing with Chris is I've never seen a system shed its deep convection as fast as that storm did!

This has got a pretty decent circulation just needs some more convection.

[stevetampa33614]

Well the 6hr movement went from 18.5 to a 18.4 so it did slightly lose latitude though generally longer term motion seems to be pretty close to due west.

What should be noted is that at this time Bertha was decently south of 15N at 35W...

Actually Bertha was located about the same place 99L is located now but Bertha was moving WNW already under a weaker ridge...so over the next couple of days it looks like 99L will be tracking a little bit lower in lattitude than Bertha.

Ok so it isnt gonna Recurve till later because of the WWSW jog so the goalpost is probably between Bermuda and CONUS? (no not saying you endorse this. I just wish I knew if this was a threat to Florida at all, Steering looks murky to me.)

[AJC3]

Well the 6hr movement went from 18.5 to a 18.4 so it did slightly lose latitude though generally longer term motion seems to be pretty close to due west.

What should be noted is that at this time Bertha was decently south of 15N at 35W...

Actually Bertha was located about the same place 99L is located now (maybe a little bit further south) but Bertha was moving WNW already under a weaker ridge...so over the next couple of days it looks like 99L will be tracking a little bit lower in lattitude than Bertha because 99L should move between 270 and 265 for the next several days.

Bertha was about 2 degrees south of 99L. The 07/05/09Z position was 16.5N 35.3W.

[KWT]

Gatorcane, I placed Bertha too far south but still Bertha was at 16.5N at 35W and didn't reach 18.6N until about 48W. If it stays due west until then, then 99L will go under Bertha's latitude.

[Sanibel]

Same weak convection tag as 97L (I think it was 97L?) Better surface spiral though.


Basin looks like it is ready to turn on in a few days or a few weeks. Who knows?


I doubt there's any upwelling wake this long after Bertha. Currents smooth those over after a few weeks.

[stevetampa33614]

Same weak convection tag as 97L (I think it was 97L?) Better surface spiral though.


Basin looks like it is ready to turn on in a few days or a few weeks. Who knows?

It is August, and we have seen a really perky July. I think the basin is going to turn on 2-3 days. Already there is alot Convection between the Conus and South america. I use this as a good indication that Cape Verde will all too soon really begin.

(Or do you guys think it already did, Given Bertha and soon Edouard)

[KWT]

Amazingly Sanibel there is still a weak upwelling region near Bermuda where water temps are a little lower still then the surrounding region. Who knows whether 99L adds to that upwelling we will see won't we!

[gatorcane]

Maybe a repeat of Becky 1958?

[stevetampa33614]

Maybe a repeat of Becky 1958?

In 1958 there was no way of them knowing were the storm actually was born. IMO, no satelittes back then, sputnik was launched in 59 I believe and typical weather recon flights were only done within a couple hundred miles of the CONUS. So I would think there is a rather large Margin of Error on that map thats gets moreso east of 60W.

Edit Sputnik was launched in 57.

[cycloneye]

Floater 1 is on top of 99L:

[wxman57]

To me it looks like it is moving between 265 and 270, and ever-so slightly losing lattitude. That would suggest some strong ridging building in to the north of 99Ls current position.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Right, the ridge has been between 30-35W, and that's why the GFS predicted the south of west track a few days ago until it reaches the western edge of the ridge after 45-50W.

[stevetampa33614]

It did jog SW and is heading Due W right now.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: The pro mets may have the answer.

Can't see any other logical explanation other than it's misnumbered.

Although Tony,they internally had been with the 99 number since yesterday afternoon.

AL, 99, 2008073118
AL, 99, 2008080100
AL, 99, 2008080106
AL, 99, 2008080112

Update=Tony,since 2 days ago they had the 99 number.

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al992008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200808011421
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2008, DB, O, 2008080112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992008
AL, 99, 2008072918, , BEST, 0, 137N, 172W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008073000, , BEST, 0, 144N, 179W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008073006, , BEST, 0, 146N, 189W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008073012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 198W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008073018, , BEST, 0, 165N, 215W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008073100, , BEST, 0, 169N, 232W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008073106, , BEST, 0, 176N, 250W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008073112, , BEST, 0, 178N, 269W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008073118, , BEST, 0, 180N, 290W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008080100, , BEST, 0, 184N, 314W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008080106, , BEST, 0, 185N, 334W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008080112, , BEST, 0, 184N, 354W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010,

[AJC3]

:uarrow: The pro mets may have the answer.

Can't see any other logical explanation other than it's misnumbered.

Although Tony,they internally had been with the 99 number since yesterday afternoon.

AL, 99, 2008073118
AL, 99, 2008080100
AL, 99, 2008080106
AL, 99, 2008080112

Yeah Luis...apparently the invest numbering system is such that once an invest is deactivated, a new number is assigned if the same system is picked up again. Learn something new every day...