Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Looks good this morning! Any speculation as to why no num model data?

Yeah,its not normal that no model guidance has not comed out since it was tagged as a invest as two runs(00z and 06z haved passed without any plots.Lets see if the 12z comes finnally.But I think that we here in the NE Caribbean are safe from this as already is above 14n.Even if it takes a WSW track for a while,its so north already that unless something unexpected happens,the islands in the NE Caribbean will not see this.

[Gustywind]

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
Watching the far eastern Atlantic
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
5:53 a.m. ET 7/30/2008
In the Atlantic basin, an area of low pressure has emerged off the west coast of Africa, and was located a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. This low pressure has become better organized and additional development is possible as it moves west-northwest toward the Cape Verde Islands in the next day or so.

[KWT]

Yeah got to admit its strange we haven't had no model data for this but I suspect we will get some sooner rather then later though!

[Gustywind]

Looks good this morning! Any speculation as to why no num model data?

Yeah,its not normal that no model guidance has not comed out since it was tagged as a invest as two runs(00z and 06z haved passed without any plots.Lets see if the 12z comes finnally.

Yeah Cycloneye it is why i've mentionned it yesterday night, it's strange and time goes by...always nothing...with a nice system getting very organized....

[Thunder44]

Looking at visible images on the NRL site, this system looks like a TD already.It could be a TS threat to CV islands. So I don't think the NHC will wait too much longer in upgrading it.

[wxman57]

I put a center near 15.6N/20.1W at 11Z. That's extremely far north for so far east. Odds of it impacting any land areas but the Cape Verde islands are slim. I wonder how this system would be identified if it was in the northwest Gulf? Consistency is all I ask.

Edit: Actually, looking at a 2 hour movement on visible images, I get a motion toward 313 degrees at closer to 22 kts, so it has sped up overnight, apparently.

[KWT]

Quite possibly Thunder I do agree it looks good right now just maybe needs one more flare up of convection over the center to get an upgrade but it does look close.
Also I agree this could be a Cape Verde issue if it does continue to get better organised.

wxman57, I'd bet it would be a 30kts TD right now if it was in the gulf...

[HURAKAN]

Yes, that's the African coast!

[KWT]

Got to admit that does rather look like a tropical depression at least right now, lets see what it does in the next 12-24hrs convection wise given its right on the border of the lower heat content.

[wxman57]

Here's a shot with 1-deg lat/lon lines overlaid. As you can see, it's already at about the latitude of the northeast Caribbean. Very little chance it'll track straight west at 270-272 degrees for 5 days. And it's still moving NW near 20 kts.

[KWT]

So what sort of track are we looking at then wxman57, a Debby 2006 or something further west then that?

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

I think this surely has a good chance of being upgraded today looking at how it looks right now but need to see it hold its convection for a little while longer yet I feel.

[HURAKAN]

985
ABNT20 KNHC 301155
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND WESTERN AFRICA AND IS MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS
TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER
TODAY AND TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 14.5N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W.
ANY KIND OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[KWT]

I'm not quite sure why the TWD are so behind with this system, as the TWO said this could be a depression today quite easily, indeed it probably already is one IMO...

Anyway if it keeps heading NW its going to find itself in much cooler waters where it will be greatly held back unless it can find a way back WSW.

[wxman57]

So what sort of track are we looking at then wxman57, a Debby 2006 or something further west then that?

Good chance it may be upgraded then dissipate in a day or two. Once past the Cape Verde Islands it's about 99.99999% chance a fish storm.

[GCANE]

It looks like it may eat a lot of dust.

[wxman57]

I'm not quite sure why the TWD are so behind with this system, as the TWO said this could be a depression today quite easily, indeed it probably already is one IMO...

Anyway if it keeps heading NW its going to find itself in much cooler waters where it will be greatly held back unless it can find a way back WSW.

I believe that the NHC also considers the fact that it probably won't be around too long. Like they said, it moves over colder water as it moves west from this latitude, so it may be just an open wave in 48 hours. They don't like to bother with systems that they expect to dissipate in a few days.

[KWT]

Well yeah I agree this probably won't last long unless it bends back west in the next 12-24hrs but still the way I read it they are saying development for a system will be slow when it looks like its a TD already.