2PM Advisory

[chadtm80]

Tropical Storm Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 12a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on July 11, 2003



...Claudette slows a little and remains disorganized...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern and
eastern coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from progreso to Tulum.

Interests in western Cuba should continue to monitor the progress of
Claudette.

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft indicate the center of Claudette is poorly-defined
and elongated from east-northeast to west-southwest.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was
located near latitude 21.9 north...longitude 88.0 west or about 95
miles... 150 km...northwest of Cancun Mexico.

Claudette is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue with a slower
forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion should bring
the center into the southern Gulf of Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 90 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Above normal tides will begin to subside today as Claudette moves
away from the Yucatan Peninsula.

Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are likely in
association with Claudette.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...21.9 N... 88.0 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[southerngale]

NHC still shows landfall at the Tex/Mex border

[wx247]

That won't change (if it does at all) until the 4 pm CT advisory.

[cycloneye]

Kelly the NHC has been very consistent with that area for a landfall at the Texas/Mexico border and they will continue to add to that consistency keeping the track that way maybe shifting a tad to the right but not too much.

[Johnny]

Same stuff. Waiting for the 5pm discussion just for grins.

[Air Force Met]

They are on drugs. There is NO WAY the center is there. A recent on from recon had ese winds SOUTH of where they put the center.

Impossible.

[Seadootoo]

I agree Cycloneye. I'm sitting here in Corpus with my hammer ready. Watching and waiting.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy seadootoo I said this morning in my post about landfall as I went out of the limb near CC.

[chadtm80]

As you can see from the map below.. The center is no where near the heavy convection going by the NHC 2pm

[chadtm80]

Here it is on IR

[Air Force Met]

The center is not where the NHC put it. It is in the swirl sw of where they put it. There are ese winds SOUTH of their center...which is impossible unless Claudette is a high pressure system.

[chadtm80]

Cant wait for the 5pm

[ColdFront77]

There must be a surface low trying to form under the deep convection to the east of the current low position.

I was looking at the coordinates and satellite imagery noticing the impressive convection to the east of the center. There is so much convection pressure could easily fall under that area.

[Colin]

This is ridiculous...wonder what they are smoking this time...