Just about time for the 2pm advisory

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chadtm80

Just about time for the 2pm advisory

#1 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:31 pm

What will it say????????????????
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#2 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:36 pm

Hmmm...drifting west...21.3N / 88.5W; Pressure 1008 and max winds 40

Will resume a north motion later today or tonight.

Just a guess...
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#3 Postby Johnny » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:37 pm

Same 'ol stuff. It seems like if there was a major change the NHC would sugar-coat it as best the could so they won't look so sheepish.
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#4 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:37 pm

correction...88.9
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#5 Postby wrkh99 » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:44 pm

2pm will be nouthing new 5pm should be a fun one to read
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#6 Postby GulfBreezer » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:45 pm

Call me crazy but I think there is going to be a MAJOR change in the 5pm advisory...........forecast will shift to the right by NHC
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#7 Postby Rainband » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:49 pm

Interesting Rainbands???
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... ktbw.shtml
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#8 Postby wx247 » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:50 pm

I don't know what to think to be honest. I doubt the winds will be down to 40. I imagine that there are some stronger winds than that in the convection.
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#9 Postby Lindaloo » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:52 pm

Well if this is true.. I am glad because they need to get people warned in time.
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#10 Postby southerngale » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:54 pm

Yeah GB, it's hard to believe that all of the models have shifted right but the NHC hasn't budged with their forecast track.
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#11 Postby wx247 » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:03 pm

Sometimes you get blinded by what you feel is right and don't take into consideration all of the variables. If I was NHC I would have moved the track just a little farther north at 10 this morning just for the simple fact almost every model has shifted to the right since yesterday. They are going to look a lot less credible to many people if they have to move the track a whole lot at 4 or even at 10 tonight.
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#12 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:05 pm

There is NO WAY the center is there. A recent on from recon had ese winds SOUTH of where they put the center.

Impossible.
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:07 pm

Well then why they said that position at advisory?Maybe recon fixed that position?
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#14 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:09 pm

They did the same thing with Allison. Put her in teh wrong place by 60 miles.
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#15 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:12 pm

Look at a high res Vis and tell me the center is there. There is cu moving wnw south of their center. Recon did not fix it...there is not vortex. They reported ese winds in that location.

They did it because they like continuity. It is not in that location. Can't be. Again...look at a high res vis from the GHCC...
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#16 Postby Johnny » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:21 pm

AFM, I very much agree.
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