The 18:00 UTC Model guidance has it as a hurricane in the ladder part of this run.
WHXX01 KWBC 261838
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC SAT JUL 26 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080726 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080726 1800 080727 0600 080727 1800 080728 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 47.3W 21.0N 49.8W 23.1N 52.0W 25.3N 53.8W
BAMD 19.2N 47.3W 20.5N 49.5W 21.8N 51.7W 23.2N 53.8W
BAMM 19.2N 47.3W 20.5N 49.6W 21.9N 51.8W 23.2N 53.8W
LBAR 19.2N 47.3W 20.5N 49.6W 22.0N 52.1W 23.8N 54.5W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080728 1800 080729 1800 080730 1800 080731 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.5N 55.1W 30.7N 54.4W 32.7N 49.6W 35.1N 46.1W
BAMD 24.5N 55.5W 26.3N 57.8W 27.0N 58.5W 27.2N 59.0W
BAMM 24.5N 55.6W 26.2N 57.9W 26.9N 58.7W 27.3N 59.2W
LBAR 25.5N 56.4W 29.4N 58.0W 32.3N 55.1W 33.6N 51.3W
SHIP 48KTS 61KTS 70KTS 72KTS
DSHP 48KTS 61KTS 70KTS 72KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 47.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 18.5N LONM12 = 44.9W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 41.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
12z HWRF has it as a Tropical Storm:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
12z GFDL has it as a hurricane:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
12z GFDL has it as a hurricane:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 270045
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC SUN JUL 27 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080727 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080727 0000 080727 1200 080728 0000 080728 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 48.3W 20.6N 50.9W 22.4N 53.3W 24.1N 55.5W
BAMD 19.0N 48.3W 20.1N 50.4W 21.3N 52.7W 22.4N 54.9W
BAMM 19.0N 48.3W 20.1N 50.5W 21.3N 52.8W 22.3N 54.9W
LBAR 19.0N 48.3W 20.2N 50.4W 21.9N 52.7W 23.4N 55.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080729 0000 080730 0000 080731 0000 080801 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 57.1W 28.6N 58.4W 31.4N 53.3W 33.2N 50.4W
BAMD 23.4N 56.8W 24.5N 59.4W 24.8N 61.0W 25.3N 62.7W
BAMM 23.2N 56.9W 24.3N 59.9W 24.8N 62.1W 25.6N 64.4W
LBAR 25.1N 56.9W 28.0N 58.8W 30.6N 56.9W 33.0N 54.1W
SHIP 49KTS 60KTS 68KTS 69KTS
DSHP 49KTS 60KTS 68KTS 69KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 19.0N LONM12 = 46.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 18.1N LONM24 = 43.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC SUN JUL 27 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080727 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080727 0000 080727 1200 080728 0000 080728 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 48.3W 20.6N 50.9W 22.4N 53.3W 24.1N 55.5W
BAMD 19.0N 48.3W 20.1N 50.4W 21.3N 52.7W 22.4N 54.9W
BAMM 19.0N 48.3W 20.1N 50.5W 21.3N 52.8W 22.3N 54.9W
LBAR 19.0N 48.3W 20.2N 50.4W 21.9N 52.7W 23.4N 55.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080729 0000 080730 0000 080731 0000 080801 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 57.1W 28.6N 58.4W 31.4N 53.3W 33.2N 50.4W
BAMD 23.4N 56.8W 24.5N 59.4W 24.8N 61.0W 25.3N 62.7W
BAMM 23.2N 56.9W 24.3N 59.9W 24.8N 62.1W 25.6N 64.4W
LBAR 25.1N 56.9W 28.0N 58.8W 30.6N 56.9W 33.0N 54.1W
SHIP 49KTS 60KTS 68KTS 69KTS
DSHP 49KTS 60KTS 68KTS 69KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 19.0N LONM12 = 46.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 18.1N LONM24 = 43.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- HURAKAN
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
Ships sees almost no shear while the storm is being decapitated. No idea.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972008 07/27/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 55 60 63 68 71 69
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 55 60 63 68 71 69
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 39 43 48 52 57 61 65
SHEAR (KTS) 3 4 4 8 10 4 8 8 12 11 3 15 18
SHEAR DIR 238 288 45 90 142 193 212 238 249 336 289 290 305
SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 125 126 127 130 134 134 134 136 137 139 141
ADJ. POT. INT. 113 116 117 118 118 119 120 119 117 118 119 120 122
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -55.2 -55.3 -55.6 -55.1
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 12
700-500 MB RH 35 32 30 26 27 24 27 30 32 36 40 45 43
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 34 24 15 -9 -30 -57 -76 -75 -82 -93 -87 -97 -123
200 MB DIV 10 25 10 14 1 7 -11 -3 -30 4 -25 23 -15
LAND (KM) 1602 1578 1527 1486 1389 1210 1064 964 897 837 807 777 805
LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.6
LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.4 50.5 51.7 52.8 54.9 56.9 58.5 59.9 61.1 62.1 63.2 64.4
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 5 5 5 6
HEAT CONTENT 13 16 17 18 20 25 33 28 27 34 36 33 30
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 14. 13. 12.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 23. 30. 34. 38. 43. 46. 47.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 30. 35. 38. 43. 46. 44.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/27/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 1.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/27/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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