ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
The first run of HWRF for 97L shows a recurving moderate Tropical Storm.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
SHIP makes it a hurricane in 120 hours:
WHXX01 KWBC 251836
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC FRI JUL 25 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080725 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080725 1800 080726 0600 080726 1800 080727 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 42.2W 19.9N 45.0W 21.9N 47.4W 23.8N 49.3W
BAMD 18.3N 42.2W 19.3N 44.3W 20.5N 46.5W 21.8N 48.6W
BAMM 18.3N 42.2W 19.4N 44.6W 20.7N 47.0W 22.1N 49.0W
LBAR 18.3N 42.2W 19.3N 44.3W 20.8N 46.6W 22.3N 48.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080727 1800 080728 1800 080729 1800 080730 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.3N 50.7W 30.2N 50.5W 32.2N 48.6W 34.2N 46.5W
BAMD 23.0N 50.6W 25.5N 53.9W 27.3N 55.6W 29.9N 53.4W
BAMM 23.6N 51.0W 26.3N 53.5W 28.1N 54.3W 29.9N 51.2W
LBAR 24.2N 50.8W 27.8N 52.9W 30.3N 51.3W 30.6N 48.1W
SHIP 49KTS 59KTS 63KTS 65KTS
DSHP 49KTS 59KTS 63KTS 65KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 42.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 39.8W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 36.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 251836
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC FRI JUL 25 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080725 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080725 1800 080726 0600 080726 1800 080727 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 42.2W 19.9N 45.0W 21.9N 47.4W 23.8N 49.3W
BAMD 18.3N 42.2W 19.3N 44.3W 20.5N 46.5W 21.8N 48.6W
BAMM 18.3N 42.2W 19.4N 44.6W 20.7N 47.0W 22.1N 49.0W
LBAR 18.3N 42.2W 19.3N 44.3W 20.8N 46.6W 22.3N 48.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080727 1800 080728 1800 080729 1800 080730 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.3N 50.7W 30.2N 50.5W 32.2N 48.6W 34.2N 46.5W
BAMD 23.0N 50.6W 25.5N 53.9W 27.3N 55.6W 29.9N 53.4W
BAMM 23.6N 51.0W 26.3N 53.5W 28.1N 54.3W 29.9N 51.2W
LBAR 24.2N 50.8W 27.8N 52.9W 30.3N 51.3W 30.6N 48.1W
SHIP 49KTS 59KTS 63KTS 65KTS
DSHP 49KTS 59KTS 63KTS 65KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 42.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 39.8W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 36.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
Go Ships!
Looks like we may have a shot of seeing another cane before July is through keeping us on an above average pace for the season.
Looks like we may have a shot of seeing another cane before July is through keeping us on an above average pace for the season.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
Looks like the XTRP model wants to make it an east coast threat.
esruoc of gnikoj mI
esruoc of gnikoj mI
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
RL3AO wrote:Looks like the XTRP model wants to make it an east coast threat.
esruoc of gnikoj mI
XTRAP is just extrapolating the current movement. 97L is virtually no threat to the East Coast of the US or Leeward islands at this time.
These are the systems we like to see here on Storm2K, fun to track but no threat or harm done to anybody
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
gatorcane wrote:RL3AO wrote:Looks like the XTRP model wants to make it an east coast threat.
esruoc of gnikoj mI
XTRAP is just extrapolating the current movement. 97L is virtually no threat to the East Coast of the US or Leeward islands at this time.
These are the systems we like to see here on Storm2K, fun to track but no threat or harm done to anybody
Check the backwards fine print.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
No wonder SHIP makes this a hurricane.Look at the shear forecast and see light shear thru 120 hours.
Code: Select all
ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972008 07/25/08 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 42 49 55 59 61 63 64 65
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 42 49 55 59 61 63 64 65
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 51 57 61 63 66 68
SHEAR (KTS) 17 7 5 5 8 3 8 10 8 12 11 13 8
SHEAR DIR 257 272 249 288 62 213 103 161 163 169 171 205 171
SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 117 119 121 125 130 134 137 136 136 137 136
ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 110 112 112 115 118 119 118 115 114 118 118
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -54.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.6
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9
700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 46 42 40 39 35 35 34 34 38 45
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 61 60 66 55 44 7 -15 -40 -57 -64 -87 -76 -70
200 MB DIV -17 -16 16 26 29 10 29 -7 -2 -6 2 2 38
LAND (KM) 1859 1832 1816 1821 1830 1792 1635 1562 1537 1554 1594 1711 1874
LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.7 22.1 23.6 25.0 26.3 27.2 28.1 29.0 29.9
LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.4 44.6 45.8 47.0 49.0 51.0 52.4 53.5 54.0 54.3 53.6 51.2
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 5 5 8 11
HEAT CONTENT 1 2 4 8 11 14 20 25 27 25 21 17 9
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 30. 35. 37. 39. 40. 42.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 24. 30. 34. 36. 38. 39. 40.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/25/08 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/25/08 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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- wxman57
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Re:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Is it me or do the models seem out to Lunch with this one? All of them show an immediate NW beline? Has looked West all day to me...
It appears to be moving toward 300 degrees or more for the past 3 days. Started out near 15N and now it's crossing 25N.
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Re: Re:
wxman57 wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Is it me or do the models seem out to Lunch with this one? All of them show an immediate NW beline? Has looked West all day to me...
It appears to be moving toward 300 degrees or more for the past 3 days. Started out near 15N and now it's crossing 25N.
Um, the closest thing to a low level circulation I see is South of 20º.
I am not a doctor, nor play one on TV.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: Re:
wxman57 wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Is it me or do the models seem out to Lunch with this one? All of them show an immediate NW beline? Has looked West all day to me...
It appears to be moving toward 300 degrees or more for the past 3 days. Started out near 15N and now it's crossing 25N.
25? LOL
Wow i must be missing something here..
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
Cyclone1 wrote:gatorcane wrote:RL3AO wrote:Looks like the XTRP model wants to make it an east coast threat.
esruoc of gnikoj mI
XTRAP is just extrapolating the current movement. 97L is virtually no threat to the East Coast of the US or Leeward islands at this time.
These are the systems we like to see here on Storm2K, fun to track but no threat or harm done to anybody
Check the backwards fine print.
Oh yeah nice
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
Copied and pasted from main thread
cycloneye wrote:The latest ATCF Best Track at 18:00 UTC:
AL, 97, 2008072518, , BEST, 0, 183N, 422W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 25, 0, 0,
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- Ivanhater
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Re: Re:
wxman57 wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Is it me or do the models seem out to Lunch with this one? All of them show an immediate NW beline? Has looked West all day to me...
It appears to be moving toward 300 degrees or more for the past 3 days. Started out near 15N and now it's crossing 25N.
Huh? The low associated with 97L is Near 18N, with the convection displaced well to the NE...although shouldnt matter much, if this starts to develop, it will likely recurve
Though there needs to be an asterisks so here it is
*Should IT pulse on and off, it could pose a threat to the U.S, but odds are low this will happen.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
This wave seems to extend all the way to the ITCZ, with an enhancement of activity just South of 10ºN
The most prominent apparent circulation closer to 18ºN seems part of a looser elliptical circulation extending SSW from the 18º circulation that seems to suggest fairly low level West winds down to about 13ºN, with a lesser maximum, or "pole", of the elliptical circulation near 15ºN, 44ºW.
The more convectively active part of the circulation could break off and try to develop, leaving the Southern end of the wave to continue on a more Westward path.
Perhaps the models are picking up on that with a fairly quick recurve of the partially exposed circulation closer to the convection.
The 12Z GFS quickly develops the Northernmost vorticity, and pulls the Southernmost 850 mb vort max into it, but notice it initializes the Southern vort max stronger.
I'm not convinced the 18ºN will overcome dry air and shear to develop. However, if it does, I'm not sure part of the wave won't continue Westward, and may become active in Caribbean or Pacific.
The most prominent apparent circulation closer to 18ºN seems part of a looser elliptical circulation extending SSW from the 18º circulation that seems to suggest fairly low level West winds down to about 13ºN, with a lesser maximum, or "pole", of the elliptical circulation near 15ºN, 44ºW.
The more convectively active part of the circulation could break off and try to develop, leaving the Southern end of the wave to continue on a more Westward path.
Perhaps the models are picking up on that with a fairly quick recurve of the partially exposed circulation closer to the convection.
The 12Z GFS quickly develops the Northernmost vorticity, and pulls the Southernmost 850 mb vort max into it, but notice it initializes the Southern vort max stronger.
I'm not convinced the 18ºN will overcome dry air and shear to develop. However, if it does, I'm not sure part of the wave won't continue Westward, and may become active in Caribbean or Pacific.
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- HURAKAN
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Shear almost not a problem starting tonight.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972008 07/25/08 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 42 49 55 59 61 63 64 65
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 42 49 55 59 61 63 64 65
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 51 57 61 63 66 68
SHEAR (KTS) 17 7 5 5 8 3 8 10 8 12 11 13 8
SHEAR DIR 257 272 249 288 62 213 103 161 163 169 171 205 171
SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 117 119 121 125 130 134 137 136 136 137 136
ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 110 112 112 115 118 119 118 115 114 118 118
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -54.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.6
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9
700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 46 42 40 39 35 35 34 34 38 45
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 61 60 66 55 44 7 -15 -40 -57 -64 -87 -76 -70
200 MB DIV -17 -16 16 26 29 10 29 -7 -2 -6 2 2 38
LAND (KM) 1859 1832 1816 1821 1830 1792 1635 1562 1537 1554 1594 1711 1874
LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.7 22.1 23.6 25.0 26.3 27.2 28.1 29.0 29.9
LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.4 44.6 45.8 47.0 49.0 51.0 52.4 53.5 54.0 54.3 53.6 51.2
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 5 5 8 11
HEAT CONTENT 1 2 4 8 11 14 20 25 27 25 21 17 9
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 30. 35. 37. 39. 40. 42.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 24. 30. 34. 36. 38. 39. 40.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/25/08 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/25/08 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
938
WHXX01 KWBC 260009
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0009 UTC SAT JUL 26 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080726 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080726 0000 080726 1200 080727 0000 080727 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 43.8W 20.4N 46.5W 22.1N 49.0W 24.0N 51.2W
BAMD 19.1N 43.8W 20.2N 45.7W 21.8N 47.7W 23.5N 49.6W
BAMM 19.1N 43.8W 20.2N 46.0W 21.8N 48.2W 23.4N 50.2W
LBAR 19.1N 43.8W 20.5N 45.9W 22.1N 48.0W 24.0N 50.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080728 0000 080729 0000 080730 0000 080731 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.1N 52.6W 29.4N 53.2W 31.5N 50.7W 33.2N 46.7W
BAMD 25.3N 51.1W 28.4N 52.2W 30.2N 50.4W 30.7N 48.2W
BAMM 25.3N 51.6W 28.1N 52.3W 29.3N 50.4W 28.7N 48.5W
LBAR 25.9N 51.5W 29.2N 52.2W 30.3N 50.3W 29.5N 47.2W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 63KTS 64KTS
DSHP 45KTS 56KTS 63KTS 64KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.1N LONCUR = 43.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 41.0W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 38.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 260009
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0009 UTC SAT JUL 26 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080726 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080726 0000 080726 1200 080727 0000 080727 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 43.8W 20.4N 46.5W 22.1N 49.0W 24.0N 51.2W
BAMD 19.1N 43.8W 20.2N 45.7W 21.8N 47.7W 23.5N 49.6W
BAMM 19.1N 43.8W 20.2N 46.0W 21.8N 48.2W 23.4N 50.2W
LBAR 19.1N 43.8W 20.5N 45.9W 22.1N 48.0W 24.0N 50.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080728 0000 080729 0000 080730 0000 080731 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.1N 52.6W 29.4N 53.2W 31.5N 50.7W 33.2N 46.7W
BAMD 25.3N 51.1W 28.4N 52.2W 30.2N 50.4W 30.7N 48.2W
BAMM 25.3N 51.6W 28.1N 52.3W 29.3N 50.4W 28.7N 48.5W
LBAR 25.9N 51.5W 29.2N 52.2W 30.3N 50.3W 29.5N 47.2W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 63KTS 64KTS
DSHP 45KTS 56KTS 63KTS 64KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.1N LONCUR = 43.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 41.0W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 38.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139710
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
If this SHIP 00:00 UTC forecast is right,this system will have a free ride after 24 hours from shear.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972008 07/26/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 52 56 60 63 65 64
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 52 56 60 63 65 64
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 45 49 54 58 61
SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 15 10 1 2 5 5 9 4 9 1 4
SHEAR DIR 272 258 274 327 256 344 142 171 169 167 128 146 140
SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 119 121 124 130 134 137 137 136 132 126 126
ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 111 113 115 119 120 119 116 115 111 106 106
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 9
700-500 MB RH 52 48 44 39 41 38 37 40 38 38 38 35 38
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 63 55 43 27 15 -11 -45 -70 -81 -105 -110 -110 -110
200 MB DIV -28 -8 6 25 18 15 10 -1 -3 -4 -22 -2 -23
LAND (KM) 1831 1825 1827 1856 1832 1706 1649 1668 1748 1857 1947 1975 2040
LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.2 21.0 21.8 23.4 25.3 26.8 28.1 28.9 29.3 29.2 28.7
LONG(DEG W) 43.8 44.9 46.0 47.1 48.2 50.2 51.6 52.3 52.3 51.6 50.4 49.1 48.5
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 12 10 7 5 5 5 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 2 5 9 11 14 17 23 26 22 13 15 12 13
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 39.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/26/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/26/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
cycloneye wrote:If this SHIP 00:00 UTC forecast is right,this system will have a free ride after 24 hours from shear.Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972008 07/26/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 52 56 60 63 65 64
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 52 56 60 63 65 64
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 45 49 54 58 61
SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 15 10 1 2 5 5 9 4 9 1 4
SHEAR DIR 272 258 274 327 256 344 142 171 169 167 128 146 140
SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 119 121 124 130 134 137 137 136 132 126 126
ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 111 113 115 119 120 119 116 115 111 106 106
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 9
700-500 MB RH 52 48 44 39 41 38 37 40 38 38 38 35 38
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 63 55 43 27 15 -11 -45 -70 -81 -105 -110 -110 -110
200 MB DIV -28 -8 6 25 18 15 10 -1 -3 -4 -22 -2 -23
LAND (KM) 1831 1825 1827 1856 1832 1706 1649 1668 1748 1857 1947 1975 2040
LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.2 21.0 21.8 23.4 25.3 26.8 28.1 28.9 29.3 29.2 28.7
LONG(DEG W) 43.8 44.9 46.0 47.1 48.2 50.2 51.6 52.3 52.3 51.6 50.4 49.1 48.5
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 12 10 7 5 5 5 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 2 5 9 11 14 17 23 26 22 13 15 12 13
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 39.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/26/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/26/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
We could see TS Edouard before the weekend is over
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