Houston's in the CLEAR

Guest · #1 Postby **Guest** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 11:31 am

With all the model divergence and the NHC standing firm with their TX/MX landfall. At this point I'm calling Houston free and clear of landfallling Claudette.

Out of the 4 local mets - only one said to monitor the storm via their station becuase she might change course - that pretty much says it right there. Also, looking at the last sat pics she's making THAT WEST TURN to mexico.

Comments and thoughts welcome!

Patricia

#2 Postby **BreinLa** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 11:34 am

Hey girl, I disagree with your mets, she could do anything she wants at this point. Just my opinion lol

#3 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 11:34 am

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Houston. Claudette, if anything, has proven to be somewhat unpredictable.

But you guys sure have had your share of rain in the last 30 days!

Anyone from the panhandle of Florida to the NE Mexico coast ought to be watching closely on this one.

chadtm80 · #4 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 11:35 am

I dont think so.. Not yet anyways

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 11:42 am

Just read an interesting post at Gopbi..could be bs..if not expect a shift in models to the right...This storm is gonna give me an ulcer!! :o

#6 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 11:52 am

I don't think it is a movement to teh west Ticka. What is happening is it is stalled. The low level center is hugging the coast...being pulled in by frictional effects. Look for it to continue to hug the coastline and eventually be pulled back NE towards the convection. The COL in the steering flow is to it's north and there is not a strong surge to the SE to push it in any direction. My guess is that it stays there for another 24 hours...

#7 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 11:53 am

If I may ask ... what is "Gopbi"?

mf_dolphin · #8 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 11:55 am

I'm not convinced there's a west movement yet either. I don't see it making Florida but I think the Central and West Gulf coast is still in play.

Rainband · #9 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 11:55 am

Air Force Met wrote:I don't think it is a movement to teh west Ticka. What is happening is it is stalled. The low level center is hugging the coast...being pulled in by frictional effects. Look for it to continue to hug the coastline and eventually be pulled back NE towards the convection. The COL in the steering flow is to it's north and there is not a strong surge to the SE to push it in any direction. My guess is that it stays there for another 24 hours...

Well that will make it a long weekend :o

Guest · #10 Postby **Guest** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 11:57 am

its another message board on the internet GOPBI

Lindaloo · #11 Postby **Lindaloo** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:13 pm

I disagree. If it is stalling then that means it is getting ready to make that westward turn.

#12 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:21 pm

With what steering flow? The ridge is not going to build in that far south. Right now...all the models are hosed because the initialization of the storm is hosed. It's stalling because the steering flow is dried up. It was orginally supposed to stall around 25 north and make the turn. However, it is at 21 north. The 4 corners ridge will only gives its influence down to about 25 north. Other than that...the flow is weak. It's not going to do anything for a day or two. That llc that is hugging the coast is doing so because of frictionals. The wind over the water is moving faster than that over land and that pulls the storm towards the coast because of it.

Watch...it will move wsw along the coast and then 1) die...or 2) move south...east...then ne towards the convection again.

wrkh99 · #13 Postby **wrkh99** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:23 pm

It could easily hit the panhandle .. Thats in Fl right ?

Lindaloo · #14 Postby **Lindaloo** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:29 pm

I know nothing about all that mumbo jumbo talk Air Force Met. lol. What I do know is from experience. When they stall they are going to move somewhere. If the NHC knows something they better make some changes and quick. Right now they are sticking with the Mexico/TX border.

#15 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:32 pm

Hey Air Force Met ..... building off your last comment, sounds like Claudette is behaving like last year's Isidore to some degree, eh?

It's been a while since I have seen a storm like this confound so many.

#16 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:41 pm

I did not lay it was going to stall forever. IT will stall there for at least a day though...I think. That means it's not getting ready to do something. What it is doing is waiting on somethings else to do something so it can react. Looking at where it is and what it is doing now...there isn't a lot that will impact it in the near future. The 4 corners high is too far away and is not going to build as far se as originally thought...it is building more NE.

#17 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:41 pm

lay=say

#18 Postby **wx247** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:41 pm

I think it is far too early to clear anyone from this system. It is a wait and see sort of situation.

Johnny · #19 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:49 pm

I wouldn't rule Houston out one bit. Heck, right now I wouldn't rule out anyone. Lots of opinions are on the table with no hard facts. Pretty much the same as yesterday.

Lindaloo · #20 Postby **Lindaloo** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:55 pm

Thanks Air Force Met! It is certainly NOT what I would want to know but glad I know now. lol.

Houston's in the CLEAR

Houston's in the CLEAR

Not so fast ...

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