I'm starting to doubt Claudette will become a hurricane.

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OtherHD
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I'm starting to doubt Claudette will become a hurricane.

#1 Postby OtherHD » Fri Jul 11, 2003 10:09 am

Now, part of me is saying that out of frustration with her recent developments, but I have reasoned it out in my head and am at least 50% convinced that Claudette will not become a hurricane. There is persistent shear to the west and northwest of Claudette, and she has been close enough to the shear for several days, which is inhibiting development, keeping her from becoming a cane. Evidence of this shear is the slightly exposed center moving west, to the SW of the main convection. The NHC has been forecasting this to weaken, but I haven't seen it yet. As long as our system remains weak (which I think it will), don't expect it to move north. It should continue generally west, drift a little, and maybe even dip slightly WSW in the coming days. The low level steering flow suggests that. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

I hope I'm wrong. :cry:
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#2 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Jul 11, 2003 10:24 am

You could be right HD... But I still feel there is a chance the trough will pick her up, and there is also a definate chance of her still becoming a cane. It is important that everyone keeps an eye out.. She survived some rough chit so far..
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 11, 2003 10:29 am

A la Isidore again ?
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#4 Postby Colin » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:20 pm

Yes, you may be correct, HD...but I still have faith in her. Only time will tell.
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#5 Postby OtherHD » Fri Jul 11, 2003 4:08 pm

BUMP...NHC lowers their intensity forecast......
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#6 Postby Lindaloo » Fri Jul 11, 2003 4:11 pm

Well I hope you are right HD!! :)
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#7 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Jul 11, 2003 4:13 pm

You had claudette dead before she was even born HD.. lol
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 11, 2003 4:16 pm

Well HD in your favor is that NHC has downgraded that intensity forecast to maybe 1 advisory before landfall
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