ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[JonathanBelles]

The eye is still very visible and symmetric on radar. It is getting smaller, but I am surprised it is holding together as well.

[RL3AO]

Still looks really good.

[Cape Verde]

We don't really expect storms that cross the Yucatan to instantly break up. Just the opposite. We expect them to emerge on the other side weakened but still alive.

Land won't kill a tropical system instantly, although it's happened on occasion when one crashes into high mountains such as are on the island of Hispanola.

Dolly thinks she's over the Yucatan again.

[Jason_B]

It's been a long time since I can remember a hurricane looking THAT good while inland on radar. Usually by now the eye is all ragged and half of the storm is dried up.

[Janie2006]

Jim Cantore reporting that Texas DOT and DPS have elected to re-open the Causeway to traffic. I'm surprised it has been opened that quickly.

[HURAKAN]

Wunderground.

[JonathanBelles]

Jim Cantore reporting that Texas DOT and DPS have elected to re-open the Causeway to traffic. I'm surprised it has been opened that quickly.

Theres no reason to keep low profile vehicles off of the causeway as the winds are coming down. I certainly wouldnt drive across it until the rain stopped, but I dont think it is premature. I would still keep it closed to High Profile vehicles.

[Jason_B]

Wow, small little hurricane when you pan out like that.

[Jason_B]

Jim Cantore reporting that Texas DOT and DPS have elected to re-open the Causeway to traffic. I'm surprised it has been opened that quickly.

Theres no reason to keep low profile vehicles off of the causeway as the winds are coming down. I certainly wouldnt drive across it until the rain stopped, but I dont think it is premature. I would still keep it closed to High Profile vehicles.

Yeah but those roads should be inspected for damage before they open them back up.

[Air Force Met]

The reports are what's actually been observed v.s. radar estimates, although the reports are only from airports and only from midnight to 6 pm CDT today. Areas not near airports will have higher storm totals compared to midnight to 6 pm.

As someone who has actually observed...actually gone out to the rain gauge and stuck the stick in the tube...let me tell you how accurate observed rain amounts are in very windy conditions (especially with the small tropical type raindrops...as opposed to the big drops from a t-storm)...

It ain't.

[Janie2006]

You can really see how Dolly got herself together as she approached landfall this afternoon, especially in the latter frames...keeping in mind the limitations of the WSR 88-D at (relatively speaking) great distances.

[wxman57]

FYI, I took a look at Dolly's movement the past 3 hours. Here's what I found:

I measured a 1-hr position change from 26.5N/97.8W to 26.5N/97.9W between 7:30-8:30 CDT. West movement of 6.6 nm in 1 hour. Not much different from earlier except it’s due west, a little left of our/my current forecast and it’ll be well left of the last NHC track. NHC carried WNW movement to Laredo overnight.

For the past 3 hours, I measured a movement toward 272 deg of 15.9 nm. First hour speed 5.8 kts. Second hour about the same. Final hour a little faster at 6.6 kts. So I don’t see too much of a slowing using GARP and radar, but at the speed its moving it can easily produce 12-15 inches of rain along its path tonight. And I do expect it to slow down as it moves west.

[Janie2006]

Jim Cantore reporting that Texas DOT and DPS have elected to re-open the Causeway to traffic. I'm surprised it has been opened that quickly.

Theres no reason to keep low profile vehicles off of the causeway as the winds are coming down. I certainly wouldnt drive across it until the rain stopped, but I dont think it is premature. I would still keep it closed to High Profile vehicles.

Sure, I'll go along with that, but I was listening to an interview with the local public service information officer a bit earlier and he indicated that the bridge probably wouldn't be re-opened this evening. OTOH, he didn't specifically say it would remain closed either.

[Air Force Met]

FYI, I took a look at Dolly's movement the past 3 hours. Here's what I found:

I measured a 1-hr position change from 26.5N/97.8W to 26.5N/97.9W between 7:30-8:30 CDT. West movement of 6.6 nm in 1 hour. Not much different from earlier except it’s due west, a little left of our/my current forecast and it’ll be well left of the last NHC track. NHC carried WNW movement to Laredo overnight.

For the past 3 hours, I measured a movement toward 272 deg of 15.9 nm. First hour speed 5.8 kts. Second hour about the same. Final hour a little faster at 6.6 kts. So I don’t see too much of a slowing using GARP and radar, but at the speed its moving it can easily produce 12-15 inches of rain along its path tonight. And I do expect it to slow down as it moves west.

That's what I'm seeing...5-6...it certainly isn't moving wnw at 10.

[Cape Verde]

Wunderground.

Okay, that was pretty awesome.

[Steve]

>>Well not us weather geeks. But I think the average person doesn't know about stuff like that and just sort of hears "Cat 1" and thinks that's how it's gonna be and it's not that bad. The fact that it can blow up before landfall, or sit right on top of them for a long time, may not be how the average person thinks about it. Maybe they should, but not sure they do.

Yeah I know. But still, Texas has a history of both storms intensifying at landfall and slow moving systems. We've seen both scenarios a few times.

>>And the whole "past storm performance" issue comes into play too. On one of the network feeds I saw one man who chose to stay on SPI say, "Well, they said Rita was coming here and then she didn't, so I figured I'd stay." Arrgh.

Yeah, we've all heard that a time or two.

FWIW, still pretty vicious down in South Texas. For anyone who was riding out the hurricane, I'm sure this will be one of the longer ones in recent memory - kinda like an endless pounding.

Steve

[crazycajuncane]

Down here in Brazil on work. I've been checking on storm2k when I've had a chance and early this morning it looked to me that the storm was slowing down a bit and intensifying a lot. Something that strikes me is the people who don't think a Cat 1-2 storm is powerful.

I guess if you are getting a Cat 1 and it's on the way downhill and the storm is falling apart then your assumption is that a CAT 1 storm is not that powerful.

In this situation Dolly was blowing up towards the landfall and they are all very lucky that this storm didn't have another 12-24 hours to intensify.

Prayers are with all that have been affected. I know the worse part of these storms is the clean up!

[JonathanBelles]

Dr. Lyons just had GRLevel2/3 (analyst?) on and showed a frame from just before landfall of the radar that showed the stadium effect. Does anyone have that frame?

[Jason_B]

Down here in Brazil on work. I've been checking on storm2k when I've had a chance and early this morning it looked to me that the storm was slowing down a bit and intensifying a lot. Something that strikes me is the people who don't think a Cat 1-2 storm is powerful.

I guess if you are getting a Cat 1 and it's on the way downhill and the storm is falling apart then your assumption is that a CAT 1 storm is not that powerful.

In this situation Dolly was blowing up towards the landfall and they are all very lucky that this storm didn't have another 12-24 hours to intensify.

Prayers are with all that have been affected. I know the worse part of these storms is the clean up!

Category 1/2 hurricanes are nothing to mess with, even tropical storms can be pretty bad. Especially when they just sit over the same area like Dolly is doing, hours of heavy rain and 50-60mph winds can be quite miserable and scary to experience. As they say, always prepare for the worst.

[Innotech]

and now we have seen how mother nature cures a drought.
Those rainfall numbers are INSANE.
I hope everyone is safe and sleeping well tonight. That was a hell of a storm to follow, from a struggling blob to this magnificent Cat 2. This storm will be one to remember for sure.