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ATL: Dolly Model Runs
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- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
Re: ATL: TS Dolly Model Runs
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- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
Re: ATL: H Dolly Model Runs
Can someone recap what ships and GFDL are saying about max intensity? Thanks.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly Model Runs
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 230023
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0023 UTC WED JUL 23 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080723 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080723 0000 080723 1200 080724 0000 080724 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.9N 95.7W 25.7N 97.4W 26.2N 98.9W 26.7N 100.8W
BAMD 24.9N 95.7W 25.9N 96.9W 26.6N 98.3W 27.1N 100.1W
BAMM 24.9N 95.7W 25.6N 97.3W 26.1N 98.7W 26.4N 100.5W
LBAR 24.9N 95.7W 25.9N 97.2W 26.9N 98.8W 27.6N 100.6W
SHIP 65KTS 73KTS 77KTS 79KTS
DSHP 65KTS 73KTS 52KTS 35KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080725 0000 080726 0000 080727 0000 080728 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.1N 102.5W 28.5N 106.9W 30.3N 111.1W 32.0N 113.8W
BAMD 27.7N 102.2W 29.1N 106.7W 31.2N 110.5W 33.2N 111.9W
BAMM 26.8N 102.3W 28.0N 106.8W 29.7N 111.1W 31.3N 113.8W
LBAR 28.6N 102.5W 30.5N 105.8W 32.6N 107.5W 34.3N 106.7W
SHIP 77KTS 69KTS 60KTS 53KTS
DSHP 29KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.9N LONCUR = 95.7W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 23.7N LONM12 = 94.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 23.0N LONM24 = 92.0W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 100NM
$$
NNNN
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Re: ATL: H Dolly Model Runs
What are some of the reasons for the possibility of Dolly stalling?
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Re: ATL: H Dolly Model Runs
047
WHXX01 KWBC 231258
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1258 UTC WED JUL 23 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080723 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080723 1200 080724 0000 080724 1200 080725 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.9N 96.7W 26.5N 98.3W 27.0N 100.2W 27.3N 102.0W
BAMD 25.9N 96.7W 26.6N 98.1W 27.0N 99.8W 27.5N 101.8W
BAMM 25.9N 96.7W 26.4N 98.2W 26.7N 100.0W 27.1N 101.7W
LBAR 25.9N 96.7W 26.7N 98.0W 27.6N 99.6W 28.7N 101.5W
SHIP 80KTS 87KTS 90KTS 88KTS
DSHP 80KTS 62KTS 39KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080725 1200 080726 1200 080727 1200 080728 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.0N 104.1W 29.9N 108.5W 31.3N 111.5W 32.6N 113.0W
BAMD 28.0N 104.0W 29.8N 108.3W 31.1N 110.9W 32.3N 112.7W
BAMM 27.7N 104.0W 29.4N 108.5W 30.7N 111.7W 31.8N 113.7W
LBAR 29.9N 103.3W 32.5N 105.7W 34.0N 105.5W 34.7N 103.5W
SHIP 83KTS 69KTS 55KTS 49KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.9N LONCUR = 96.7W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 95.7W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 23.7N LONM24 = 94.0W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 967MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 100NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 231258
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1258 UTC WED JUL 23 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080723 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080723 1200 080724 0000 080724 1200 080725 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.9N 96.7W 26.5N 98.3W 27.0N 100.2W 27.3N 102.0W
BAMD 25.9N 96.7W 26.6N 98.1W 27.0N 99.8W 27.5N 101.8W
BAMM 25.9N 96.7W 26.4N 98.2W 26.7N 100.0W 27.1N 101.7W
LBAR 25.9N 96.7W 26.7N 98.0W 27.6N 99.6W 28.7N 101.5W
SHIP 80KTS 87KTS 90KTS 88KTS
DSHP 80KTS 62KTS 39KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080725 1200 080726 1200 080727 1200 080728 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.0N 104.1W 29.9N 108.5W 31.3N 111.5W 32.6N 113.0W
BAMD 28.0N 104.0W 29.8N 108.3W 31.1N 110.9W 32.3N 112.7W
BAMM 27.7N 104.0W 29.4N 108.5W 30.7N 111.7W 31.8N 113.7W
LBAR 29.9N 103.3W 32.5N 105.7W 34.0N 105.5W 34.7N 103.5W
SHIP 83KTS 69KTS 55KTS 49KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.9N LONCUR = 96.7W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 95.7W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 23.7N LONM24 = 94.0W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 967MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 100NM
$$
NNNN
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- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:My bet right now is that this winds up hitting south Texas between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
It looks like the prediction I made on Sunday morning wound up being pretty accurate..
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- americanrebel
- Category 1
- Posts: 399
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:42 pm
- Location: Intracoastal City, La.
Re: ATL: H Dolly Model Runs
I'm so glad I was wrong. Now on to the next one where I get pounded for predicting the worse and getting the best.
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