ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[MiamiensisWx]

Landfall intensity will probably be ~80 kt (strong Cat 1) based on recon

New members: current intensity was ~85 kt (low end Cat 2) at last advisory

[Chacor]

METAR KHRL 231652Z 32043G55KT 2SM RA BR BKN012 OVC020 24/22 A2944
RMK AO2 PK WND 32056/1606 SLP971 P0012 T02390222

[fci]

Just wanted to mention that fox news has a live stream, I think from SPI. Video from inside a vehicle driving around.

Does anybody have a link please?

http://www.foxnews.com/video2/player.ht ... &180&&&new

[Chacor]

...DOLLY HESITATES...EYEWALL OF DOLLY CROSSING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...

AT 1200 PM CDT...1700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
60 KM...NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR SOON.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING
THE COAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE
CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

[HarlequinBoy]

1153 AM HURRICANE BROWNSVILLE 25.93N 97.48W
07/23/2008 CAMERON TX ASOS

67 MPH WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DOLLY.

[Thunder44]

Even though the windspeeds may be going down a bit. They also may last longer over one area due to the slow movement of the eye moving onshore. That can cause more damage.

[TexWx]

I wonder if that band of showers out to her east will come in towards Houston, or break off...

[MiamiensisWx]

It is hard to believe that Dolly is still ~85 kt based on degrading radar appearance (last two images) and recon data. Avila is understandably retaining his conservative approach, and I certainly can't blame him.

Thunder44's point is very valid.

[CrazyC83]

It is hard to believe that Dolly is still ~85 kt based on degrading radar appearance (last two images) and recon data. Avila is understandably retaining his conservative approach, and I certainly can't blame him.

Thunder44's point is very valid.

I think it was 90 kt earlier based on radar images in areas Recon missed. I do agree it has weakened a bit due to land interaction.

[wxmann_91]

Yeah, doppler showed some areas that had winds of over 100 kt (aloft). Winds are probably down to 75-80kt now.

[KWT]

Yep wxmann_91 that probably equates down to about 90kts at the surface but probably 85kts was a fair compramise between all the different ideas on strength.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yeah, doppler showed some areas that had winds of over 100 kt (aloft). Winds are probably down to 75-80kt now.

Agreed. Do you think it encountered the same issues (read: low level dry air) that weakened Bret 1999 and Allen 1980 prior to landfall?

It seems like many Texas landfalls encounter the same problem, excluding Claudette 2003, Celia 1970, etc.

The "weaker" TCs (i.e. TS status) shortly prior to landfall seem to have better chances of making landfall at maximum intensity than TCs that are more intense like Dolly.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, doppler showed some areas that had winds of over 100 kt (aloft). Winds are probably down to 75-80kt now.

Agreed. Do you think it encountered the same issues (read: low level dry air) that weakened Bret 1999 and Allen 1980 prior to landfall?

Quite possible, since it is semi-desert west of Laredo and Monterrey.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yeah, doppler showed some areas that had winds of over 100 kt (aloft). Winds are probably down to 75-80kt now.

Agreed. Do you think it encountered the same issues (read: low level dry air) that weakened Bret 1999 and Allen 1980 prior to landfall?

It seems like many Texas landfalls encounter the same problem, excluding Claudette 2003, Celia 1970, etc.

I do...Im think Geography in the area has something to do with the radical changes in this location..

[Squarethecircle]

I find it a bit difficult to believe that the storms winds are so rapidly weakening following its change in appearance. Just a couple hours ago they were busy catching up with the storm as it underwent somewhat fast intensification.

[HarlequinBoy]

Radar indicates very heavy rain has fallen over extreme se Cameron County.. upwards of 11 inches.

But mostly rain is between 4-8 inches across the eastern half.

[CrazyC83]

Another thing - the strongest quadrant of winds is on land in the national seashore where Recon cannot reach. That is why I think it is a bit stronger than Recon suggests - 85 kt seems right (it was 90 earlier IMO).

[wxmann_91]

Yeah, doppler showed some areas that had winds of over 100 kt (aloft). Winds are probably down to 75-80kt now.

Agreed. Do you think it encountered the same issues (read: low level dry air) that weakened Bret 1999 and Allen 1980 prior to landfall?

It seems like many Texas landfalls encounter the same problem, excluding Claudette 2003, Celia 1970, etc.

The "weaker" TCs (i.e. TS status) shortly prior to landfall seem to have better chances of making landfall at maximum intensity than TCs that are more intense like Dolly.

Re: The last sentence. Strongly agree. Ironically, spending more time over water may have spared places like Pt. Isabel/S. Padre stronger winds. Weird, huh? It's all because frictional convergence helps weak systems by consolidating their inner cores (or helping them build an eyewall as was in the case in Humberto last year), whereas it hurts strong systems because it induces concentric eyewall formation. It's not just TX landfalls, all landfalls to an extent, except perhaps in places like the Everglades.

Re: The first sentence. Dry air definitely played a role, as well as concentric eyewalls. It's recovering now but upwelling is now really taking its toll. The cloud tops are nowhere near as cold as they were this morning.

[MiamiensisWx]

I apologize if this is inappropriate, but I believe the NHC should set the upcoming landfall intensity at ~80 kt. It is clear that Dolly is likely not a Cat 2 now. Not only is it supported by data, but it is also important to assume that some members of the general public may believe they experienced a stronger TC if the Cat 2 status is maintained for the landfall intensity. Most people do not adhere to these unnamed "members", but there are always people who experience the outer fringes of a TC and believe that they experience stronger winds than reality. They may take advantage of Lixion Avila's rationally conservative nature and say, "I went through a Cat 2 and it wasn't so bad!"

I can see some "dangers" here...

[wxmann_91]

I apologize if this is inappropriate, but I believe the NHC should set the upcoming landfall intensity at ~80 kt. Not only is it supported by data, but it is also important to assume that some members of the general public may believe they experienced a stronger TC if the Cat 2 status is maintained for the landfall intensity. Most people do not adhere to these unnamed "members", but there are always people who experience the outer fringes of a TC and believe that they experience stronger winds than reality. They may take advantage of Lixion Avila's rationally conservative nature and say, "I went through a Cat 2 and it wasn't so bad!"

I can see some "dangers" here...

That'll confuse the media to heck and will give people who are hunkered down a false sense of security. Might as well just leave Cat 2 and then adjust in reanalysis for BT.