Question about trough

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rainydaze
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Question about trough

#1 Postby rainydaze » Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am

Good Morning everyone :)
Amateur question: The NHC seems confident in their Claudette
discussion that she will miss the trough and take a westerly turn.
I was just wondering what factors make them believe Claudette
will do this. Also, does any one disagree and think she will get
picked up by the trough? Thanks.
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crazy4disney
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#2 Postby crazy4disney » Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:20 am

I am really wondering that too. They seemed so confused and uncertain about the track just yesterday, and this morning the local mets said everything short of "We spoke with Claudette, and she has assured us that she will be headed towards the TX/Mexico border." That would be great, for my area, but it sure seems awful confident all the sudden... and a disservice to people who will say "Oh, okay, then!" and not pay any more attention to Claudette. And there are plenty of them... we're just all happy freaks here who can't get enough of this stuff. ;)

But Rainydaze has a great question... can they be that confident about the trough all the sudden?
Last edited by crazy4disney on Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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mitchell
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#3 Postby mitchell » Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:21 am

quite a scatter of the models re: whether northward or weterly track:
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _model.gif
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ColdFront77

#4 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Jul 11, 2003 2:19 pm

I have been saying that this entire week. The local meteorologists, meteorologists on The Weather Channel and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center have been overly confident, or at least sounding overly confident about the movement of Claudette.

It has always been said that tropical cyclones have to be watched as they are unpredictable. They are making it sound like they are predictable saying that this system is going to move westward into Texas or Mexico.
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isobar
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#5 Postby isobar » Fri Jul 11, 2003 2:51 pm

Also, a question within a question, how close does a trough have to be in order to have an impact on a cyclone?
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