2008 Cyclones Retirement

[Ad Novoxium]

We aren't even out of 2008, and already one name has been retired by a meteorological group: Frank (Fengshen's PAGASA name). What are the chances for all the other cyclones of this year (excluding Nargis, since they only use those names once), in your opinion. My takes:

Atl:
Arthur: 5%. 9 deaths total and noticeable damage ($78 mil).
Bertha: 10%. 3 deaths. Long lived.
Cristobal: 0%. Soaked the ground. Little else.
Dolly: 20%. High damage estimate, and decent death toll.
Edouard: 0% HELLO NEGLIGIBLE!!!
Fay: 35%. Decent death toll, and from what I hear, decent damage in Florida.
Gustav: 95%. Death toll! Damages! Category 4 landfall! Yeah...
Hanna: 90%. High death toll, but lower chances due to these being in Haiti, sadly.
Ike: 100%. Need this be discussed? Billions in damages and 100+ deaths.
Josephine: 0%. Mm hmm.
Kyle: 9%. Decent damage in Canada. Does it merit retirement? In light of other cyclones, I don't really think so.
Laura: 3%. Whipped the Netherlands and Norway something fierce, but as an extratropical cyclone.
Marco: 5%. Not much damage, but also not much size.
Nana: 0%. Nothing. Could be replaced if only because the prospect of a "Hurricane Nana" is kind of strange, if not weird. Now if Marco was Nana...

EPac:
Alma: 30%. $33 million damage. 9 deaths total. Record setter.
Boris: 0%. Unnotable.
Cristina: 0%. Unnotable.
Douglas: 0%. Unnotable.
Elida: 0%. Strength is not a reason for retirement.
Fausto: 0%. See Elida.
Genevieve: 0%. See Fausto.
Hernan: 0%. See Genevieve.
Iselle: 0%. Weak, and nothing notable.
Julio: 1%. Two deaths? Minimal damage? Nope.
Karina: -5%. The very epitome of "nada". Could be retired due to Katrina, but if that were the case, think Katia and Rina wouldn't be substitutes.
Lowell: 2%. Little.
Marie: 0%. Nothing.
Norbert: 3% I...don't really think 3 deaths cuts it.
Odile: 1%. Affected land. That's all.

WPac (JMA):
Neoguri: 10%. Par for the course in terms of typhoons. The record stands out a little.
Rammasun: 1%. Damage is almost non-existant. No death toll.
Matmo: 0%. Fishie.
Halong: 15%. Neoguri with a higher death toll and damage estimate.
Nakri: 0%. Beautiful storm, with no damages.
Fengshen: 90%. Incredible death toll and high damage.
Kalmaegi: 10%. Similar to Halong.
Fung-Wong: 3% What it did is, by comparison to other retired names, bupkis.
Kammuri: 25%. 100+ deaths and $100 million+ damages.
Phanfone: -5%. No. Way.
Vongfong: 0%. Threatened land, at least.
Nuri: 4%. See Fung-Wong.
Sinlaku: 10%. Dumped rain...and more rain...and more rain...ad nauseum.
Hagupit: 30%. 67 direct deaths in combination with $1 billion in damage. Decent shot.
Jangmi: 20%. Decent damage. Should probably be retired for being so well organized.
Mekkhala: 5%. Fair death toll, but very little damage (just over $6 mil)
Higos: ??%. No idea if this did anything.

WPac (PAGASA):
Ambo (Neoguri): 0%. It's impact in the Philippines is next to nothing. Some evacuations and an overturned motorboat does not a retirement make.
Butchoy (Rammasun): 1%. See above.
Cosme (Halong): 15%. Philippines impact fairly noteworthy.
Dindo (Matmo): 0%. See above.
Enteng (Nakri): 0%. See above.
Frank (Fengshen): -%. Already retired.
Gener: 0%. No impact.
Helen (Kalmaegi): 0%. See Ambo.
Igme (Fung-Wong): 0%. Zilch.
Julian (Kammuri): 2%. Maybe for impact elsewhere, but it did little in the Philippines.
Karen (Nuri): 8%. All its main impact was in the Philippines.
Lawin: 0%. No known impact.
Marce (Sinlaku): 10%. The raindrops keep falling on my head...
Nina (Hagupit): 10%. Decent damage on the Philippines.
Ofel (Jangmi): 0%. It did nothing there.
Pablo (Higos): ??%. See Higos.

Jakarta (08 storms only):
Durga: 0%. Nothing.

Australian region (08 storms only):
Helen: 0%. No impact.
Nicholas: 2%. Notable landfall.
Ophelia: 0%. No impact, but landfall.
Pancho: 0%. Nothing.
Rosie: 0%. Nothing.

South Pacific (08 storms only):
Elisa: 0%. Nothing.
Funa: 0%. Nothing. (Retired)
Gene: 10%. 7 deaths and $45 million in damages. (Retired)

[HurricaneBill]

I think Gene might get retired. Keep in mind, he took much of Fiji by surprise by striking from the east.

[Mecklenburg]

probably Kalmaegi

[Chacor]

probably Kalmaegi

19 deaths and low damage will not get a WPac storm retired.

[Mecklenburg]

probably Kalmaegi

19 deaths and low damage will not get a WPac storm retired.

then how come Sudal of 2004 was retired when it only did a little damage and there were no deaths????

damage: 14 Million USD

then Hurricane Emily of 2005 has damage of 550 million USD, then it wasn't retired...

[Chacor]

probably Kalmaegi

19 deaths and low damage will not get a WPac storm retired.

then how come Sudal of 2004 was retired when it only did a little damage and there were no deaths????

Sudal wrecked Yap. 90% of buildings were destroyed. That's not "a little damage". One person was killed, too.

[Chacor]

then Hurricane Emily of 2005 has damage of 550 million USD, then it wasn't retired...

Apples and oranges. One in the WPac and one in the Atlantic. Different methods of retirement - WPac has retired weird storms before (Vamei); Atlantic hasn't (Vince).

[Mecklenburg]

according to the news report damage from Typhoon Kalmaegi is already at 330 million USD...

typhoon Sudal is only 14 million, so which is worst?

[Chacor]

according to the news report damage from Typhoon Kalmaegi is already at 330 million USD...

typhoon Sudal is only 14 million, so which is worst?

we'll just see about that...

Sudal 14 million? What's your source for that?

[Mecklenburg]

Sudal 14 million? What's your source for that?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re ... hoon_names

[Chacor]

Yap, population 8000. 1,500 in shelters, 1,000 homeless. $14 million is significant - damage per capita = $1,750. The U.S./Micronesia had good reason to request retirement.

Also, China or Taiwan will have to request retirement of Kalmaegi. Taking Taiwan alone, population 23 million - damage per capita = $14.34. Both have been hit far worse before and are unlikely to request retirement unless those damage totals go up significantly.

EDIT: I just remembered, Taiwan is not a member of the WMO/ESCAP panel, and cannot request retirement. Got to be China or Korea.

[HurricaneBill]

I'm surprised they did not retire Typhoon Songda in 2004. Songda did USD $9 billion in damage in Japan alone and caused 47 deaths there. I know Japan prefers to use a numbers system rather than names. However, in 2005, they retired Super Typhoon Nabi. Nabi killed 32 and caused USD $1 billion in damage in Japan.

[Mecklenburg]

probably Dolly

[Chacor]

It will depend on the final damage and death total. They don't retire storms for strength.

[cheezyWXguy]

It will depend on the final damage and death total. They don't retire storms for strength.

unless theyre wilma. Even if wilma had somehow dissipated over water after reaching her peak, she still likely wouldve been retired, seeing as she set so many records.

[Ad Novoxium]

It will depend on the final damage and death total. They don't retire storms for strength.

unless theyre wilma. Even if wilma had somehow dissipated over water after reaching her peak, she still likely wouldve been retired, seeing as she set so many records.

I doubt it. They could have booted 97's Linda off the EPac lists not just for it's intensity, but for the fear it caused due to some forecasts taking it to a California landfall. But it wasn't. Tip wasn't retired either. As far as I know, the only storm specifically retired for its intensity was Ioke, and even in that case, it was still slated for retirement, because it didn't have a Hawaiian meaning (unlike Iniki, which had the wrong meaning).

[CrazyC83]

We need raw numbers for Dolly before we find out if there is a case for it.

Probably damage would need to be over $1 billion or death tolls (from final landfall) in double digits for a case to be warranted.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Dolly was just like Caudette 2003. In Caudette did not get retired...So I would say about 5% or maybe 10% chance of retirement.

[Derek Ortt]

very little chance for Dolly

unless it does 3+ billion or has killed many hundreds... not even close to retirement

[Category 5]

I really don't see it being retired either.