Recon in invest mode...

#1 Postby **ALhurricane** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:38 pm

Looking at the latest obs from recon, it is flying at 1500 feet or so. They are trying like crazy to find a closed circulation, as if this were an Invest. I have my doubts they will.

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:41 pm

So what are you saying? They probably won't find a closed circulation?

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:44 pm

NOPE - NO CENTER - have my doubts it there is even a LLC anymore.

Patricia -

Colin · #4 Postby **Colin** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:47 pm

Yeah...same here ticka... thinking the same thing.

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:02 am

There certainly should be a LLC. The system is still has form. The shear has been just a bit too high in the last several hours.

JetMaxx · #6 Postby **JetMaxx** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:20 am

I'll go on record and say it....I've never seen this happen to a near hurricane in the NW Caribbean. I may get shocked again, but honestly think Claudette is history.....toast.

PW

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:01 am

Try again Perry!! I am not doing this to embarass, but she is doing exactly what I figured she would-KEEP US ON OUR TOES!!! MINE ALREADY HAVE BLISTERS ON THE TIPS FROM TIP TOEING AROUND CLAUDETTE AND HER ODDITIES!!!

551
WTNT34 KNHC 110547
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

..CLAUDETTE NEARING THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD AROUND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
CLAUDETTE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
CLAUDETTE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6
WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN THIS MORNING.

BASED UPON REPORTS FROM SHIP...ELWX5...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
INCREASED TO 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN RAINBANDS TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER YUCATAN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
..220 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CLAUDETTE.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...20.7 N... 86.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 55 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/STEWART

JetMaxx · #8 Postby **JetMaxx** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:11 am

Well, slap me silly and call me dumb

Now we know why Brian Jarvinsen and Stacy Stewart are NHC forecasters and and I'm not :lol:

PW

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:13 am

I just read through this advisory as well.

David and Perry, I also thought that Claudette would become better organized overnight tonight. The shear keeps backing in on "her." There have been discussions on the board in the last several hours about the storm getting away from the shear/the shear is decreasing over the east-central Gulf of Mexico.

#10 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:33 am

ColdFront77 wrote:I just read through this advisory as well.

David and Perry, I also thought that Claudette would become better organized overnight tonight. The shear keep backing in on "her." There have been discussions on the board in the last several hours about the storm getting away from the shear/the shear is decreasing over the east-central Gulf of Mexico.

I've been searching for the shear since it has been the culprit all along. I am unable ATT to find it or any indication of the ULL what was producing it. This doesn't mean it isn't there or won't reappear, but it looks like it is gone to me.

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:36 am

David, as I said I agree and reorganization should occur.

#12 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:38 am

JetMaxx wrote:Well, slap me silly and call me dumb

Now we know why Brian Jarvinsen and Stacy Stewart are NHC forecasters and and I'm not

PW

Now Perry you know me better than that! I'm not about to slap you silly and you certainly aren't dumb and I'll put your forecasting skills up against most of the "amatuers" I know and a several of the professionals.

I think what you meant to say was

O MY GAWD!!! SHE'S DONE IT AGAIN!!! :fishslap: :splat:

:23:

Colin · #13 Postby **Colin** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:10 am

Here we go...she's going to start strenghening again! :o :o :o

Colin · #14 Postby **Colin** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:10 am

Here we go...she's going to start strenghening again! :o :o :o

GulfBreezer · #15 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:19 am

I am getting motion sickness..........anyone have any dramamine?? :crazyeyes:

:17:

#16 Postby **Pebbles** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:34 am

GulfBreezer wrote:I am getting motion sickness..........anyone have any dramamine?? :17:

Sorry for feeding Claudette my preggo hormones again

IT"S ALL MY FAULT *WAILS* *winks*

JetMaxx · #17 Postby **JetMaxx** » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:07 pm

Dramamine??? Heck, this storm's a psycho....I need prozac

Recon in invest mode...

Recon in invest mode...

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