ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[Cyclenall]

The midnight GFDL run still has the center too far south of where it most likely will form. It has a strong category 2 near northern Mexico.

[Duddy]

With the computer models, if they keep initializing in the wrong area, can someone override it and correctly position the center?

[Wx_Warrior]

IMHO, i believe the models are picking up on something. They, for the most part, are starting to all agree without a true center!

[Stormcenter]

IMHO, i believe the models are picking up on something. They, for the most part, are starting to all agree without a true center!

I agree...I think the models are starting to lock in on a landfall.

[cheezyWXguy]

IMHO, i believe the models are picking up on something. They, for the most part, are starting to all agree without a true center!

I agree...I think the models are starting to lock in on a landfall.

maybe true, but if they all initialize poorly, then it really doesnt matter what they agree on.

[Ed Mahmoud]

bed time, recorded ESPN Nationwide NASCAR race on DVR, didn't count on yellow flags for power outages and a red flag for a big crash, recording ended 25 laps early. Edwards won, per Nasacr.com.


Anyway, Euro says weak and near Brownsville, which agrees with my unprofessional opinion.



NoGaps looks to have initialized a tad South of what will probably be actual center, landfall near Tampico, which, just shifted Northward for error in initialization, again, near Rio Grande. NoGaps looks like a tropical depression or minimal storm at landfall.

UK Met tropical model sees a tropical storm from African Queen wave, but not 94L. UK met global looks a lot like NoGAPS, weak TS or maybe a TD South of BRO.


Night'all.

[KWT]

TRack does look like its in decent agreement for a system to the south of the Texas border hitting northern Mexico but still its a little close to the far south of Texas too take it for granted that it won't do anything. GFDL also still has a hurricane hitting Mexico.

[cycloneye]

The header says Tropical Storm Invest.Track ends near U.S.Mexico border.

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 201130
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST    94L

INITIAL TIME   6Z JUL 20

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            16.4             82.2           285./14.0
   6            17.0             83.5           296./13.9
  12            18.1             84.3           322./13.3
  18            19.5             85.7           317./19.5
  24            20.6             87.4           302./19.7
  30            21.4             89.2           293./18.3
  36            21.9             90.4           291./12.6
  42            22.4             91.4           300./10.5
  48            23.0             92.5           297./11.1
  54            23.5             93.2           305./ 8.7
  60            24.2             93.6           331./ 8.1
  66            24.8             94.4           303./ 9.3
  72            24.9             95.0           282./ 5.1
  78            25.1             95.1           343./ 2.1
  84            25.4             95.4           307./ 4.6
  90            25.4             95.8           279./ 3.5
  96            25.5             96.4           279./ 5.7
 102            25.6             97.3           272./ 8.0
 108            25.4             98.2           260./ 7.5
 114            25.4             99.1           267./ 8.5
 120            24.9            100.3           248./11.7
 126            25.2            102.1           280./16.7



[cycloneye]

06z GFDL tracks a cat 2 towards the Mexico/U.S border:

[Portastorm]

Seems like we're getting some good consensus now for a Brownsville-type bullseye.

Let's see how the models look later today after NHC locates a real center to 94L.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The models seem to be converging on a fairly good concensus, Northeast coast of Tamaulipas. Maybe as far North as Padre Island.

Speaking of Tamaulipas, my wife's cousin got married in the same church my wife was baptized in, San Miguel Arcangel, in the town of Cd. Gustavo Diaz Ordaz. Mr. Ordaz was President of Mexico in the early 1970s, when mi suegro lived down there as a boy, it was San Miguel Camargo, but the town split, with the eastern part being renamed. But the original church is still in Ordaz. It is across the Rio Grande from Los Ebanos, Texas and is reached by a hand pulled ferry.

Anyway, sign on the church, in Spanish, says it is a hurricane shelter. Ordaz is about 40 miles inland from the Gulf.

My wife also has cousins that live on the US side near Mission and La Joya. I like my wife's Tio Fito. He watches Fox News, and is a Republican. His brother, mi suegro isn't. Anyway, politics is frowned on here. So no discussion on the merits of the parties.


Based on fairly good model concensus, I advised my wife we should call her family down there and advise they start buying water and gasoline etc, to beat the rush, because I can eaisly imagine both sides of the Rio Grande being in a hurricane watch by sometime tomorrow.

Edit: I think it was actually Gustavo Ordaz Diaz, but the first last name takes precedence. My father in law has two last names, but they are both 'Flores'. Because his mother was a Flores, and so was his father.

[Portastorm]

Great story! I wish my wife's family was that interesting.

Yeah Ed, think you're spot on here. Imagine our state emergency operations activity is going to be ramping up quickly as we prepare for a deep south Texas hurricane hit.

[cycloneye]

Hello Dolly!

772
WHXX01 KWBC 201335
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1335 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080720 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080720 1200 080721 0000 080721 1200 080722 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 83.5W 19.0N 86.5W 20.1N 89.2W 21.3N 91.3W
BAMD 17.9N 83.5W 18.8N 86.1W 19.6N 88.6W 20.7N 90.8W
BAMM 17.9N 83.5W 18.9N 86.1W 19.8N 88.6W 21.0N 90.8W
LBAR 17.9N 83.5W 19.2N 86.4W 20.4N 89.4W 21.8N 92.2W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 55KTS 62KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 38KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080722 1200 080723 1200 080724 1200 080725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.9N 93.2W 25.6N 96.4W 26.6N 100.0W 26.7N 105.2W
BAMD 21.9N 92.7W 24.3N 95.4W 25.2N 97.8W 24.9N 102.2W
BAMM 22.3N 92.8W 24.6N 95.9W 25.2N 99.0W 24.9N 103.7W
LBAR 23.2N 94.5W 26.3N 96.9W 27.9N 97.8W 29.4N 99.7W
SHIP 68KTS 79KTS 78KTS 76KTS
DSHP 43KTS 55KTS 37KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 77.9W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[dwg71]

Hello Dolly!

772
WHXX01 KWBC 201335
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1335 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080720 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080720 1200 080721 0000 080721 1200 080722 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 83.5W 19.0N 86.5W 20.1N 89.2W 21.3N 91.3W
BAMD 17.9N 83.5W 18.8N 86.1W 19.6N 88.6W 20.7N 90.8W
BAMM 17.9N 83.5W 18.9N 86.1W 19.8N 88.6W 21.0N 90.8W
LBAR 17.9N 83.5W 19.2N 86.4W 20.4N 89.4W 21.8N 92.2W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 55KTS 62KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 38KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080722 1200 080723 1200 080724 1200 080725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.9N 93.2W 25.6N 96.4W 26.6N 100.0W 26.7N 105.2W
BAMD 21.9N 92.7W 24.3N 95.4W 25.2N 97.8W 24.9N 102.2W
BAMM 22.3N 92.8W 24.6N 95.9W 25.2N 99.0W 24.9N 103.7W
LBAR 23.2N 94.5W 26.3N 96.9W 27.9N 97.8W 29.4N 99.7W
SHIP 68KTS 79KTS 78KTS 76KTS
DSHP 43KTS 55KTS 37KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 77.9W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

can you post graphic - sorry dont have link here at home..

[cycloneye]

The graphic has not comed out yet.As soon its out it will be posted.

[cycloneye]

Here is the first model graphic for storm 4 Dolly.

[Smurfwicked]

Here is the first model graphic for storm 4 Dolly.

Those models looks like they're placing the center much further south than it actually is now. Am I right?

[Portastorm]

Interesting that most of the models shown there initialize the center too far south if we are to believe the recon obs (and why wouldn't we?!).

My guess is just south of the Rio Grande will be the southernmost landfall point and that the modeling may move further north along the Texas coast.

[Smurfwicked]

Interesting that most of the models shown there initialize the center too far south if we are to believe the recon obs (and why wouldn't we?!).

My guess is just south of the Rio Grande will be the southernmost landfall point and that the modeling may move further north along the Texas coast.

I agree, and that is what I said in the other thread. To be honest I got a feeling end result the Rio Grande area will not even be in the cone for the track possibility.

[canegrl04]

Here is the first model graphic for storm 4 Dolly.

Those models looks like they're placing the center much further south than it actually is now. Am I right?

The runs will change over the coming hours.Should be reflecting a more NW component