ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[gatorcane]

Wxman as your model from above....it is highly dependent on a center. Given the elongated nature of this wave a center could form anywhere along it...so those model plots could change. What do you think?

[KWT]

Indeed Gatorcane thats the problem with taking the models track too seriously. The current area they are watching is on the souther isde of the wave but if it forms further north the tracks would need adjusting to the north probably.

[cycloneye]

No upgrade at this set:Pressure at 1007 mbs.

WHXX01 KWBC 200010
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0010 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080720 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080720 0000 080720 1200 080721 0000 080721 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 81.1W 16.9N 84.3W 17.7N 86.7W 18.6N 88.8W
BAMD 16.0N 81.1W 16.8N 83.4W 17.6N 85.6W 18.4N 87.7W
BAMM 16.0N 81.1W 16.9N 83.5W 17.9N 85.7W 18.8N 87.8W
LBAR 16.0N 81.1W 16.8N 84.3W 17.9N 87.6W 19.0N 91.0W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 52KTS 62KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 52KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080722 0000 080723 0000 080724 0000 080725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.8N 90.5W 23.0N 93.2W 25.4N 96.8W 26.4N 101.8W
BAMD 19.4N 89.6W 21.4N 92.3W 22.5N 94.4W 23.1N 97.9W
BAMM 20.2N 89.7W 22.8N 92.9W 24.3N 96.1W 24.8N 100.9W
LBAR 20.2N 94.1W 23.1N 98.5W 25.0N 100.9W 25.2N 103.7W
SHIP 70KTS 78KTS 77KTS 72KTS
DSHP 35KTS 44KTS 43KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 81.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 77.9W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 74.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[wxman57]

Wxman as your model from above....it is highly dependent on a center. Given the elongated nature of this wave a center could form anywhere along it...so those model plots could change. What do you think?

A surface circulation isn't the only thing that's tracked. Even though 94L lacks an LLC, it has a strong vorticity center that the models are tracking. I don't think there's much chance of the whole thing moving into Nicaragua or Honduras. It's way too far north already and moving WNW. Models look good.

[gatorcane]

Wxman as your model from above....it is highly dependent on a center. Given the elongated nature of this wave a center could form anywhere along it...so those model plots could change. What do you think?

A surface circulation isn't the only thing that's tracked. Even though 94L lacks an LLC, it has a strong vorticity center that the models are tracking. I don't think there's much chance of the whole thing moving into Nicaragua or Honduras. It's way too far north already and moving WNW. Models look good.

Thanks for the reponse.

[cycloneye]

SHIP 00:00 UTC forecast. Shear will not be a problem at all.

Code: Select all

            *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  07/20/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    38    42    47    52    62    70    75    78    79    77    74    72
V (KT) LAND       35    38    42    47    52    51    35    41    44    45    43    35    29
V (KT) LGE mod    35    38    41    44    47    48    34    39    46    52    57    52    34

SHEAR (KTS)        4     7     6     3     5     3     3    10    12    16    13    18     3
SHEAR DIR        222   281   336   129   221     4   221   334   319   334   319     1    10
SST (C)         28.2  28.2  28.3  28.5  28.6  28.2  27.8  27.9  28.4  28.3  27.7  27.3  27.9
POT. INT. (KT)   141   140   142   144   146   140   134   135   142   140   132   128   136
ADJ. POT. INT.   139   136   137   139   140   132   125   124   128   125   118   116   124
200 MB T (C)   -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C)      11    10     8    10    10     7     9     6    10     8    11    10    14
700-500 MB RH     72    72    71    72    74    75    77    73    71    73    72    71    70
GFS VTEX (KT)     11    11    11    12    14    16    15    15    13    13    10     8     6
850 MB ENV VOR    47    43    40    40    44    35    27    14    25    30    42    43    57
200 MB DIV        56     9    39    63    67    28    50     2    49     7    45     4    41
LAND (KM)        250   187   143   170   208   -27   -79   126   334   336   165   -41  -316
LAT (DEG N)     16.0  16.5  16.9  17.4  17.9  18.8  20.2  21.5  22.8  23.7  24.3  24.5  24.8
LONG(DEG W)     81.1  82.3  83.5  84.6  85.7  87.8  89.7  91.4  92.9  94.5  96.1  98.2 100.9
STM SPEED (KT)    14    12    12    12    12    11    11    10     9     8     9    11    12
HEAT CONTENT       5     6    59    71    75  9999  9999     8    48    29    20  9999  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15      CX,CY: -14/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  615  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  29.6 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  39.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   2.   3.   6.  10.  14.  17.  20.  21.  22.  23.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   4.   6.   9.  12.  13.  14.  13.  12.  11.  11.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   1.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -2.  -3.  -5.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       3.   8.  13.  18.  28.  37.  41.  44.  45.  43.  40.  39.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   7.  12.  17.  27.  35.  40.  43.  44.  42.  39.  37.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008     INVEST 07/20/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.1 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  46.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 103.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  77.0 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  21.4 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  43.2 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    33% is   2.6 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    20% is   2.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008     INVEST 07/20/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY   

[ROCK]

OZ GFS is coming in......again intilaizes the low further south and west.....not going to be true run I am guessing....


0Z---oohr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif


thats not even close to where the convection is and looks to be a center reformation...

[Wx_Warrior]

I like the GFS and EURO. If its not a direct hit on the US, most say models are useless.

[ROCK]

I like the GFS and EURO. If its not a direct hit on the US, most say models are useless.

not sure what you mean by that but ok......I like the EURO for track but it doesnt see center reformations...

[Wx_Warrior]

My bro being a pro met, i've learned to watch the GFS & EURO closely.

The other statement was regarding people who dont like what certain models say because it may not show a direct hit on a particular area.

36hr GFS 0z

[ROCK]

My bro being a pro met, i've learned to watch the GFS & EURO closely.

The other statement was regarding people who dont like what certain models say because it may not show a direct hit on a particular area.

I see....

[americanrebel]

My bro being a pro met, i've learned to watch the GFS & EURO closely.

The other statement was regarding people who dont like what certain models say because it may not show a direct hit on a particular area.

36hr GFS 0z

By this model it looks like it could hit anywhers from TX/Mexico line to Alabama/Florida line, that is a wide area.

[Ivanhater]

I like the GFS and EURO. If its not a direct hit on the US, most say models are useless.

not sure what you mean by that but ok......I like the EURO for track but it doesnt see center reformations...

In this case ROCK is correct..a center is obviously forming further north than what the GFS is currently initializing..so yes I highly doubt this run as well

[zaqxsw75050]

I see what ROCK mean. 0Z GFS initialized the low around the red X, which is too far south and west.

[GeneratorPower]

It initialized almost 5 deg of latitude south of where the convection is consolidating. That's a big enough difference to affect the track.

[ROCK]

It initialized almost 5 deg of latitude south of where the convection is consolidating. That's a big enough difference to affect the track.

Yep, so throw out that run for now. I beginning to belive that a MX/ border hit is becoming less likely....as of now. RECON and the NOAA flight will help...

[GeneratorPower]

Until the NHC cranks out that first advisory the real experts have not weighed in on future track. They are the ones that are the most right, the most often.

[Wx_Warrior]

We'll agree to disagree on that one

[Ptarmigan]

I can't believe some of the computer models are predicting that 94L could be a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

[njweather]

I can't believe some of the computer models are predicting that 94L could be a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

Why not? Is shear forecasted to stifle development? Is the GoM not warm enough?

I think what's most concerning about this storm is that the environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable. Let's not forget how quickly systems can explode if the conditions are right...