ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[jabman98]

Did Storm2K get hinky for an while? I went away for an hour after 15 minutes of being unable to refresh pages...

I had the same thing happen. Don't think it was my ISP as I was accessing other sites just fine.

[Ivanhater]

AFM, how strong do you think this could get...

Depends on the track. If it breaks NW and heads over more water...easily Cat 2/3. If it plows over the Yucatan...then Cat 1 low Cat 2. Intensity is so hard to forecast...and as Humberto showed last year...it doesn't take long to get strong.

Oh wow, I guess it will try to take advantage of the nice conditions in the gulf, hopefully nothing like what the overnight GFDL was showing..not everyday you see a Cat 5 hitting Houston

[coreyl]

And you know if that ULL keeps entrenching itself in that Convection 94L wont have a very big window too develop into much of anything beyond a Tropical Storm.

I don't think the ULL is a problem. It is moving west at about 20 knots and is currently providing great outflow for 94L. As 94L slows down (which it will)...the outflow will be even better.

Should people in Louisiana and Mississippi be keeping a close eye on this?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Recon should be leaving with in 4 hours if flight 2 is still on

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

AFM, how strong do you think this could get...

Depends on the track. If it breaks NW and heads over more water...easily Cat 2/3. If it plows over the Yucatan...then Cat 1 low Cat 2. Intensity is so hard to forecast...and as Humberto showed last year...it doesn't take long to get strong.

Odds more favor a 50-60 knot tropical storm in the Gulf. I believe the upper levels could be there, but I don't have big enough "guts" to stick my foot out farther then that.

Hell with the history of this system it would not blow me away if this thing hit the Yucatan in never found its way back over the BOC, Gulf of Mexico like Arthur.

[AnnularCane]

AFM, how strong do you think this could get...

Depends on the track. If it breaks NW and heads over more water...easily Cat 2/3. If it plows over the Yucatan...then Cat 1 low Cat 2. Intensity is so hard to forecast...and as Humberto showed last year...it doesn't take long to get strong.

Oh wow, I guess it will try to take advantage of the nice conditions in the gulf, hopefully nothing like what the overnight GFDL was showing..not everyday you see a Cat 5 hitting Houston :lol:

I hope not!

I keep thinking it's going to develop just west of the Yucatan. No real reason, except didn't they say it's supposed to get more favorable by then?

[deltadog03]

AFM, my friend...!!! If I were a betting man, well..only the golf game lol, I would have to say someone or some people have to a bit nervous about this system over there at NHC. I have learned a lot from it already. This invest has shown a lot of guts. To go through the graveyard for developing systems and come out alive should show all of us how hard these things are to forecast. My whole thinking is IF** it can break away and head more on a NW track, then I agree with you. This could easily get to a cat 2 maybe 3. These waters, as we all know, are the warmest and have the highest heat content of anywhere. With near to nothing shear being forecast after 24-48 hours from now, it could really take off in a BIG hurry.

[Brent]

Did Storm2K get hinky for an while? I went away for an hour after 15 minutes of being unable to refresh pages...

Same for me.

[stevetampa33614]

And you know if that ULL keeps entrenching itself in that Convection 94L wont have a very big window too develop into much of anything beyond a Tropical Storm.

I don't think the ULL is a problem. It is moving west at about 20 knots and is currently providing great outflow for 94L. As 94L slows down (which it will)...the outflow will be even better.

Should people in Louisiana and Mississippi be keeping a close eye on this?

One last post.

I dont think so. Nothing definate has developed. A storm has to be named and actual center location input for models to really get a grip on destination and intensity.

But as with anything else watch.

[Derek Ortt]

if this does develop... nothing should hold this back in the GOM

NOTHING

That is if it develops, which is a little more likely now since the center appears to be consolidating a little further north of where I was looking earlier

[Air Force Met]

And you know if that ULL keeps entrenching itself in that Convection 94L wont have a very big window too develop into much of anything beyond a Tropical Storm.

I don't think the ULL is a problem. It is moving west at about 20 knots and is currently providing great outflow for 94L. As 94L slows down (which it will)...the outflow will be even better.

Should people in Louisiana and Mississippi be keeping a close eye on this?

I have learned never say never...but right now I would say the chances are slim and points east of upper Tx coast are OK.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

And you know if that ULL keeps entrenching itself in that Convection 94L wont have a very big window too develop into much of anything beyond a Tropical Storm.

I don't think the ULL is a problem. It is moving west at about 20 knots and is currently providing great outflow for 94L. As 94L slows down (which it will)...the outflow will be even better.

Should people in Louisiana and Mississippi be keeping a close eye on this?

Of course they should.

[Derek Ortt]

[qoute]One last post.

I dont think so. Nothing definate has developed. A storm has to be named and actual center location input for models to really get a grip on destination and intensity.

But as with anything else watch.[/quote]


No... the global models and mesoscale models can do just fine even without a center. They have the dynamics to actually develop the TC out of an open wave

[Normandy]

Yep, seems like a Center is consolidating somewhere to the SE of that newest burst of convection.

[Just Joshing You]

I hope the best if it does develop, and a minimal hurricane. If it does somehow reach major hurricane status, then lets hope it at least weakens significantly before landfall, but due to proximity, it would probably strengthen rather than weaken.

[Ivanhater]

I hope not!

I keep thinking it's going to develop just west of the Yucatan. No real reason, except didn't they say it's supposed to get more favorable by then?

Lol..yeah Beautiful conditions in the Gulf starting late Monday..could really take advantage of it..

[Brent]

And you know if that ULL keeps entrenching itself in that Convection 94L wont have a very big window too develop into much of anything beyond a Tropical Storm.

I don't think the ULL is a problem. It is moving west at about 20 knots and is currently providing great outflow for 94L. As 94L slows down (which it will)...the outflow will be even better.

Should people in Louisiana and Mississippi be keeping a close eye on this?

Anytime there's a potential Gulf hurricane you should but I don't see what would turn the system in that direction.

Anyway, I definitely think this looks the best it's ever looked.

[Just Joshing You]

Just looked at recent SAT images. Looking very impressive.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, my friend...!!! If I were a betting man, well..only the golf game lol, I would have to say someone or some people have to a bit nervous about this system over there at NHC. I have learned a lot from it already. This invest has shown a lot of guts. To go through the graveyard for developing systems and come out alive should show all of us how hard these things are to forecast. My whole thinking is IF** it can break away and head more on a NW track, then I agree with you. This could easily get to a cat 2 maybe 3. These waters, as we all know, are the warmest and have the highest heat content of anywhere. With near to nothing shear being forecast after 24-48 hours from now, it could really take off in a BIG hurry.

Hey bud!

I agree. Nothing stands in the way...if it can get a LLC together tonight...especially up to the north...then it will go. It reminds me a lot of Claudette. Very similar.

[Ivanhater]

if this does develop... nothing should hold this back in the GOM

NOTHING

That is if it develops, which is a little more likely now since the center appears to be consolidating a little further north of where I was looking earlier

Yeah Derek..I was looking at the upper air data from the GFS, and its downright scary what this thing could do...