ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[canegrl04]

Its not gonna hit Honduras, any low that is forming is already north of Honduras and moving WNW. Also, huge convective explosion is about to occur with 94L

Do you think we'll get Dolly within the next 6 hours?

[Ivanhater]

[Normandy]

Its not gonna hit Honduras, any low that is forming is already north of Honduras and moving WNW. Also, huge convective explosion is about to occur with 94L

Do you think we'll get Dolly within the next 6 hours?

Doubtful. NHC won't upgrade this to a TS without painfully obvious evidence of an LLC, and clearly that is very hard to find without visible imagery. Im sure they will wait till tomorrow if the declare it. Then again you never know.

[stevetampa33614]

Its not gonna hit Honduras, any low that is forming is already north of Honduras and moving WNW. Also, huge convective explosion is about to occur with 94L

Do you think we'll get Dolly within the next 6 hours?

IMO


No the NHC has already been burned on this. They are gonna wait for definitive proof. Ptobably Late Sunday or Monday if it continues to improve.

[TexWx]

In the very last frame is seems to be coming together...
but I'm sure as I post this, nada.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

[stevetampa33614]

In the very last frame is seems to be coming together...
but I'm sure as I post this, nada.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

Ya but convection should fizzle out a bit with solar influence gone. Should. So have to see what it looks like 4-5 hours from now.

[stevetampa33614]

Can anybody find that ULL or is it gone?

[Air Force Met]

Doubtful. NHC won't upgrade this to a TS without painfully obvious evidence of an LLC, and clearly that is very hard to find without visible imagery. Im sure they will wait till tomorrow if the declare it. Then again you never know.

I agree. Short of the LLC passing north of 42057 and that buoy reporting west winds of some substance...they will not upgrade until recon gets in there tomorrow morning. The 03Z package is already being worked...and I doubt they would issue a special advisory based on satellite alone. There would have to be some pretty solid evidence...like a ship or buoy.

[Air Force Met]

Can anybody find that ULL or is it gone?

It's still alive and well. It is sitting south of the west tip of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[RL3AO]

Can anybody find that ULL or is it gone?

Looks like its near the western tip of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

EDIT: Air Force Met and I post the same thing with the same link at the same time.

[stevetampa33614]

Doubtful. NHC won't upgrade this to a TS without painfully obvious evidence of an LLC, and clearly that is very hard to find without visible imagery. Im sure they will wait till tomorrow if the declare it. Then again you never know.

I agree. Short of the LLC passing north of 42057 and that buoy reporting west winds of some substance...they will not upgrade until recon gets in there tomorrow morning. The 03Z package is already being worked...and I doubt they would issue a special advisory based on satellite alone. There would have to be some pretty solid evidence...like a ship or buoy.

Very Correct,

Or wait till Coastal interests are some way threatened, just to be on the safe side.

t's still alive and well. It is sitting south of the west tip of Cuba.

Ahh yes. Thank you. So many smart people on this forum/site, such a shift from the people I disagree with/Blobologists that see a CAT 5 from a Sirrus cloud over Campeche.

[coreyl]

Did somebody say that the wave is slowing down?

[Air Force Met]

Can anybody find that ULL or is it gone?

Looks like its near the western tip of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

EDIT: Air Force Met and I post the same thing with the same link at the same time.

Jinks you owe me a coke.

[Ivanhater]

AFM, how strong do you think this could get...

[stevetampa33614]

And you know if that ULL keeps entrenching itself in that Convection 94L wont have a very big window too develop into much of anything beyond a Tropical Storm.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I was just surfing around and found this HWO from the Shreveport LA office:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook

Brownsville TX, Corpus Christi TX, Houston TX, Lake Charles LA, New Orleans LA, Mobile AL, or my WFO in Jackson Ms don't mention anything about it. Just thought I would share that seeing as it sticks out like a sore thumb.

NWS BRO AFD certainky mentioned it as a 'bears watch' item, as did NWS CRP in their afternoon discussion.


Did Storm2K get hinky for an while? I went away for an hour after 15 minutes of being unable to refresh pages...

[Air Force Met]

AFM, how strong do you think this could get...

Depends on the track. If it breaks NW and heads over more water...easily Cat 2/3. If it plows over the Yucatan...then Cat 1 low Cat 2. Intensity is so hard to forecast...and as Humberto showed last year...it doesn't take long to get strong.

[americanrebel]

What is posted is of my own opinion and has no meterological data behind it just a humble guess.

Will be a TD if not TS by tomorrow morning. This will continue moving NW for the next couple days then turn North and continue strengthening to at least a Cat 2 if not Cat 3 before making landfall anywheres from Corpus Christi, Texas to New Orleans, La. IMHO

[stevetampa33614]

The SMIS microwave overpass shows good strong convective band at the center, but no evidence of banding just yet. Though I would not normally expect that anyway this early.


The more I look at the more Im convince any LLC is going to be exactly at 79,14.

Good night all

[Air Force Met]

And you know if that ULL keeps entrenching itself in that Convection 94L wont have a very big window too develop into much of anything beyond a Tropical Storm.

I don't think the ULL is a problem. It is moving west at about 20 knots and is currently providing great outflow for 94L. As 94L slows down (which it will)...the outflow will be even better.