ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[MGC]

We've been waiting for the upgrade of 94L for days now. Don't know if it will ever happen.....MGC

[coreyl]

Is there a LLC yet?

[MississippiHurricane]

I was just surfing around and found this HWO from the Shreveport LA office:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook

Brownsville TX, Corpus Christi TX, Houston TX, Lake Charles LA, New Orleans LA, Mobile AL, or my WFO in Jackson Ms don't mention anything about it. Just thought I would share that seeing as it sticks out like a sore thumb.

[Air Force Met]

Don't focus on any "center" you're hearing from NHC or Dvorak. Look at the whole thunderstorm mass. It extends up to Cuba now. As the upper low drops southwest, the storms in the area from south of Jamaica to Cuba will be moving right into the central and northern Yucatan. That's the place to watch for development. It's precisely on track this afternoon (my track from yesterday morning). I had no expectations of any development today, and not much tomorrow. But the vorticity center should track WNW toward the northern Yucatan, westward into the SW Gulf, then slow down considerably as upper-level winds drop off. That's when to look for development/strengthening. Might happen tomorrow, but more likely on Monday when the bulk of the storms travel WNW into the Gulf.

I agree. The battle with Honduras isn't going to be a battle. If and when a low gets formed (and I think it is happening now near 16N/80.5W...give or take a 1/2 degree)...it will happen up near 16-17N if it happens tonight...or further north if it happens tomorrow. If anything...Honduras will aid the formation of the surface low by slowing down the southward end of the wave due to friction. That will tighten the LLC...the same way it did when it encountered South America.

[vaffie]

I was just surfing around and found this HWO from the Shreveport LA office:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook

Brownsville TX, Corpus Christi TX, Houston TX, Lake Charles LA, New Orleans LA, Mobile AL, or my WFO in Jackson Ms don't mention anything about it. Just thought I would share that seeing as it sticks out like a sore thumb.

Their discussions--at least the ones in Texas--do mention it quite a lot, telling everyone to stay posted.

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByStat ... discussion

[MGC]

94L's interaction with the ULL is making it look like it is moving NW. I think 94L will end up over the Yucatan. Chances are becoming low for a closed circulation to form IMO.....MGC

[wxman57]

Don't focus on any "center" you're hearing from NHC or Dvorak. Look at the whole thunderstorm mass. It extends up to Cuba now. As the upper low drops southwest, the storms in the area from south of Jamaica to Cuba will be moving right into the central and northern Yucatan. That's the place to watch for development. It's precisely on track this afternoon (my track from yesterday morning). I had no expectations of any development today, and not much tomorrow. But the vorticity center should track WNW toward the northern Yucatan, westward into the SW Gulf, then slow down considerably as upper-level winds drop off. That's when to look for development/strengthening. Might happen tomorrow, but more likely on Monday when the bulk of the storms travel WNW into the Gulf.

I agree. The battle with Honduras isn't going to be a battle. If and when a low gets formed (and I think it is happening now near 16N/80.5W...give or take a 1/2 degree)...it will happen up near 16-17N if it happens tonight...or further north if it happens tomorrow. If anything...Honduras will aid the formation of the surface low by slowing down the southward end of the wave due to friction. That will tighten the LLC...the same way it did when it encountered South America.

Good to see you here, AFM. Don't be such a stranger.

I've been watching this thing since I started work at 5am. Got home at 5:30pm and have to be back at work by 4:30am tomorrow. So I'm heading off for dinner and a little relaxation before it's bed time.

[MississippiHurricane]

Oh ok.........I was JUST going by HWOs only.

[Ivanhater]

Don't focus on any "center" you're hearing from NHC or Dvorak. Look at the whole thunderstorm mass. It extends up to Cuba now. As the upper low drops southwest, the storms in the area from south of Jamaica to Cuba will be moving right into the central and northern Yucatan. That's the place to watch for development. It's precisely on track this afternoon (my track from yesterday morning). I had no expectations of any development today, and not much tomorrow. But the vorticity center should track WNW toward the northern Yucatan, westward into the SW Gulf, then slow down considerably as upper-level winds drop off. That's when to look for development/strengthening. Might happen tomorrow, but more likely on Monday when the bulk of the storms travel WNW into the Gulf.

I agree. The battle with Honduras isn't going to be a battle. If and when a low gets formed (and I think it is happening now near 16N/80.5W...give or take a 1/2 degree)...it will happen up near 16-17N if it happens tonight...or further north if it happens tomorrow. If anything...Honduras will aid the formation of the surface low by slowing down the southward end of the wave due to friction. That will tighten the LLC...the same way it did when it encountered South America.

Glad to see you back AFM! great info as always! I hope your here for this hurricane season

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is there a LLC yet?

recon could not find a closed surface wind field. That means no LLC.

[Bgator]

Havent posted yet this season, but that is one large are of convection, keeps fooling us though, I see a more NW jog too, but hard to tell with such a large area, and no definitive center.

[Nimbus]

The wind has shifted from 58 degrees to 70 degrees at buoy 42057 over time..

If a LLC were due south of that buoy the winds would be from 90.

[Air Force Met]

The wind has shifted from 58 degrees to 70 degrees at buoy 42057 over time..

If a LLC were due south of that buoy the winds would be from 90.

Not necessarily. Winds don't follow the isobars at the sfc like they follow the contours in the upper levels. Winds back due to friction...so if it was south of the buoy...you would expect to see them 20-30 degrees off.

[KatDaddy]

Yep. Its good to hear from you AFM. There have been several posting about a jog to the NW. Explosive convection in the early stages can be misleading. Look at the overall system I say. Its still moving WNW.

[curtadams]

I'm surprised everybody is so crazy pessimistic on this system. It was very close to a closed circulation even if it didn't have one and since then we've had a ball of constant convection very near where there low was estimated. It's becoming easier and easier to find clouds with westerly components to their movement and we're now seeing a little banding and curvature to the *west* of that convective blob. IMO there's a TS there already and it's likely to strengthen. Sure it may hit Honduras before the NHC confirms a TS but dead wave? No way.

[stevetampa33614]

that ULL is gone? I cant see it anymore.


Is isnt a TS until there is an LLC. And Its tracking NW so I dont think hondurus is a concern.

Although ill darned if there isnt something under 79,15 . Several Posters hear and at HC jumped on my back saying i was just watch MLCT but attitudes are changing now. Ive been watching this area last night. LLC looks like its going/Has already formed there.

[Air Force Met]

Yep. Its good to hear from you AFM. There have been several posting about a jog to the NW. Explosive convection in the early stages can be misleading. Look at the overall system I say. Its still moving WNW.

Thanks...been real busy but I caught a break so I though I would drop in.

I agree it is still heading WNW...but it is slowing and there is a definite change in heading occuring. There is also something happening to the structure. I think this is real close to being Dolly. Something is going on with the consistent convection...especially the ball that is firing near 15/79. The whole system is slowing down and the last visible images showed the early signs of a LLC being under the convection. IT certainly wasn't a tight one...that's for sure...but I believe the process is beginning and I agree with the NHC that it is likely to become a TD/TS (more likely a TS) in the next day or two.

[Normandy]

Its not gonna hit Honduras, any low that is forming is already north of Honduras and moving WNW. Also, huge convective explosion is about to occur with 94L

[gatorcane]

Yep. Its good to hear from you AFM. There have been several posting about a jog to the NW. Explosive convection in the early stages can be misleading. Look at the overall system I say. Its still moving WNW.

Thanks...been real busy but I caught a break so I though I would drop in.

I agree it is still heading WNW...but it is slowing and there is a definite change in heading occuring. There is also something happening to the structure. I think this is real close to being Dolly. Something is going on with the consistent convection...especially the ball that is firing near 15/79. The whole system is slowing down and the last visible images showed the early signs of a LLC being under the convection. IT certainly wasn't a tight one...that's for sure...but I believe the process is beginning and I agree with the NHC that it is likely to become a TD/TS (more likely a TS) in the next day or two.

quite possibly, when I say 94L won't develop its like it suddenly starts to develop and visa versa

But I agree I see it slowing down and maybe trying to head more NW and it looks to be organizing again but hey when you have 85F SSTs and good UL winds how could it not?

[stevetampa33614]

that ULL is gone? I cant see it anymore.


Is isnt a TS until there is an LLC. And Its tracking NW so I dont think hondurus is a concern.

Although ill darned if there isnt something under 79,15 . Several Posters hear and at HC jumped on my back saying i was just watch ML but attitudes are changing now. Ive been watching this area last night. LLC looks like its going/Has already formed there.