ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Stormcenter]

Some idiot on CNN is saying things about 94L possibly being a major hurricane in the Gulf and talked about oil etc. I wonder if CNN is trying to cause a panic...

Obviously I'm being sarcastic, but from the way she was talking, it was as if she was wanting to compare it to Katrina.

That's all we need is to give the oil companies "another" excuse to jack the prices up.

[funster]

If this had closed LLC in the middle of the convection it would be undergoing Rapid Intensification right now in my opinion. As it is, I think we are seeing Rapid Organization instead. This can blowup as soon as it gets the LLC.

Yeah, I agree. 94L has not been lacking convection so once the organization is ready it should blossom.

[KWT]

thats what I worry about hurricanelandfall, this has been such a stubborn wave feature and I think once it does reach slightly more favorable conditions possibly near the Yucatan or in the Gulf/BoC it could well develop pretty readily. We will see!

[funster]

Some idiot on CNN is saying things about 94L possibly being a major hurricane in the Gulf and talked about oil etc. I wonder if CNN is trying to cause a panic...

Obviously I'm being sarcastic, but from the way she was talking, it was as if she was wanting to compare it to Katrina.

That's all we need is to give the oil companies "another" excuse to jack the prices up.

94L is probably already almost producing strong enough gusts to make them abandon the oil rigs - were it to head in that direction. Hopefully, it won't.

[HURAKAN]

I predict the TCFA will stop spreading westward when (if) it reaches the WGOM.

[wxman57]

94L is probably already almost producing strong enough gusts to make them abandon the oil rigs - were it to head in that direction. Hopefully, it won't.

Oil rigs are evacuated because of the threat that a system could develop into a hurricane. They can tolerate tropical storm force winds fine. It's the hurricane force or greater winds that have the capability to cause serious damage. So if it headed toward the northwest Gulf, the oil companies would begin evacuations based upon the chance of it becoming a hurricane. They take the safety of their people very seriously out there.

[jhamps10]

That's all we need is to give the oil companies "another" excuse to jack the prices up.

94L is probably already almost producing strong enough gusts to make them abandon the oil rigs - were it to head in that direction. Hopefully, it won't.

Oil rigs are evacuated because of the threat that a system could develop into a hurricane. They can tolerate tropical storm force winds fine. It's the hurricane force or greater winds that have the capability to cause serious damage. So if it headed toward the northwest Gulf, the oil companies would begin evacuations based upon the chance of it becoming a hurricane. They take the safety of their people very seriously out there.[/quote]

as they should. but i got a sick sick feeling that I'll be paying 4 bucks for gas again come mid week....

anyway I don't see rapid organization, while it's near d-min so convection would typically weaken right now, i just don't think we have a ts yet.

[Nederlander]

I'm new here, but I am from the Beaumont/Port Arthur area... I was looking at the GFDL earlier and it has the storm gunning right for us, but I've heard that it may be heading toward south Texas... So I was just wondering why some feel that it would stay south, rather than curving northward like most storms seem to do once they are in the GOM?

[HarlequinBoy]

94L is producing decent convection, but has no LLC...Cristobal is producing minimal convection, but has a vigorous LLC. A bit funny.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm new here, but I am from the Beaumont/Port Arthur area... I was looking at the GFDL earlier and it has the storm gunning right for us, but I've heard that it may be heading toward south Texas... So I was just wondering why some feel that it would stay south, rather than curving northward like most storms seem to do once they are in the GOM?

questions like this are best asked in the tropical analysis forum

[Musketeer]

The Golden Triangle has a great set of weathermen in Greg, James, and Kerry. I am sure that Kerry will update the area today when he does the weather.

I'm new here, but I am from the Beaumont/Port Arthur area... I was looking at the GFDL earlier and it has the storm gunning right for us, but I've heard that it may be heading toward south Texas... So I was just wondering why some feel that it would stay south, rather than curving northward like most storms seem to do once they are in the GOM?

[Javlin]

From the way it is moving sure does look like a CAmerica issue,Nic. especially.Has to be one of the most complex systems in a while.

[jinftl]

94L has been an invest for a week now....it started at 34.7W and is now at 79.2W longitude...that is over 2000 miles of the tropical atlantic...stilll an invest. It has been persistent, no argument. But in an annoying way!!! It is going to run out of water if it doesn't figure out if it wants to be Dolly before too long...do something already or a wave that is still over Africa will take your place!!!!

[canegrl04]

Some idiot on CNN is saying things about 94L possibly being a major hurricane in the Gulf and talked about oil etc. I wonder if CNN is trying to cause a panic...

Obviously I'm being sarcastic, but from the way she was talking, it was as if she was wanting to compare it to Katrina.

That's all we need is to give the oil companies "another" excuse to jack the prices up.

You just know that if this becomes Dolly by tomorrow,the price of oil will skyrocket Monday morning

[Nederlander]

The Golden Triangle has a great set of weathermen in Greg, James, and Kerry. I am sure that Kerry will update the area today when he does the weather.

I did text Kerry a while ago, he's a good friend of mine, and he said he was on the road but did say that it looked to him more like a south texas issue... so i guess its still a guessing game til it gets into the gulf... The convection is quite impressive with this storm though..

[KWT]

I think its only a matter of time before it runs into more favorable ground, looking increasingly possible that won't occur til lthe gulf region and by that time it would probably only have 36-48hrs to do something, still as we've seen thats plenty of time if its got a decent circulation, soething that this system is missing right now!

[HURAKAN]

Even thought it's not a TS, if I were in the Cayman Islands and Yucatán I would start making any preparations to receive a tropical storm. Even if no LLC develops, conditions will be like those of TS intensity.

[Ivanhater]

Well it certainly has no problem firing convection, now where is that darn surface low!

[vaffie]

Pressures falling steadily at the buoy ahead of it.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=GMT

[jinftl]

has jamaica been experiencing tropical storm conditions? the convection they have seen is moving toward the Caymans...probably be a decent estimate of what to expect.

Even thought it's not a TS, if I were in the Cayman Islands and Yucatán I would start making any preparations to receive a tropical storm. Even if no LLC develops, conditions will be like those of TS intensity.