ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[SkyDragon]

We should see something from NHC, either a STDS if no upgrade or advisories at 5pm if so.

I think they will just wait until the TWO. Thats what they've done the past few days.

What's the TWO?

[GeneratorPower]

We should see something from NHC, either a STDS if no upgrade or advisories at 5pm if so.

I think they will just wait until the TWO. Thats what they've done the past few days.

Yes, that's possible, especially with the less-strongly worded TWO that's out now.

[southerngale]

We should see something from NHC, either a STDS if no upgrade or advisories at 5pm if so.

I think they will just wait until the TWO. Thats what they've done the past few days.

What's the TWO?

Tropical Weather Outlook

[tigergirl]

We should see something from NHC, either a STDS if no upgrade or advisories at 5pm if so.

I think they will just wait until the TWO. Thats what they've done the past few days.

What's the TWO?

Tropical weather outlook

[GeneratorPower]

In the current Tropical Weather Outlook (2pm) they specifically say they are sending recon to find out if it has a closed circulation. That's what they are waiting for. So no upgrade at 5pm seems likely. Maybe an STDS if we are lucky.

[GeneratorPower]

TWO

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1757.shtml

[Scott_inVA]

Where did this TS04 come from because it certainly wasn't the NHC.

The TS042008 in our software indicates "Tropical Storm" event number 04 2008.
Sometimes I'm able to ingest data before it is on the ATCF site but I'm not seeing a renumber to 042008 so there isn't anything yet.

I don't call events before NHC but will say the last time the software did this was Ivan II...it was 3 hours ahead of NHC.

True on open wave wind speed at 35MPH...that certainly can and does happen.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

[caribepr]

I said "TD today" based on morning satellite appearance three times in four days, and was wrong every time.
I just stared again intently at the satellite loop. It looks a little healthier, but no sign of a closed circulation. So maybe tomorrow, but recon won't find a closed circulation today, IMHO.

Ed you get a star for following up.
A lot of people are getting smarter about conditions and obs being right for development, not just looking at the rainbow loop and seeing TCs spinning every time there's a wave.
I think last year destroyed a lot of people.

I think, as frustrating as 94L has been in forecasting, it has also been quite an education for those willing to use it as such. A good one to keep in mind now and in the future for the learning/patience/reality curve.

[HurricaneHunter914]

94L is so close to being a TS, but it's MLC is too stubborn to make it's way to the lower levels. Why is it having so much difficulty?

[KWT]

Yeah I wonder whether the software Scott assumes 35kts means TS?

[HURAKAN]

Nothing today, another shot tomorrow. But like Derek said, it seems this system, if it's going to develop, it will be in the GOM.

[Scott_inVA]

Yeah I wonder whether the software Scott assumes 35kts means TS?

Not usually, which is way I find this curious. As mentioned it did this with Ivan but since then I have seen 30+ kts wind without it going to a storm. I'm looking at the header to see if something in it told the software it is now 042008.

Certainly didn't look like a tropical storm but you simply can not gage sfc conditions by looking at clouds on satellite.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

[americanrebel]

As of the 1800 on the main page states 94L as an invest with 40mph winds, so as soon as a LLC is found it will become TS Dolly, if at all. This is one very stubborn invest.

[Steve H.]

More than likely a GOM issue, but that's assuming that Cristobal (sp) pulls away to the NE soon enuf and allows the Atlantic ridge to backfill where he exits. Current MLB forecast calls for surface ridging to move into central Florida and the SE states during the Mon - Weds time period. This should keep 94L moving wnw into the GOM, probably Tx/LA bound.

[KWT]

Well wxman57 did say that the GFS does build a pretty good set-up for 94L to strengthen under as it reaches the BoC/GoM, I wonder if thats why the GFDL makes this system so strong on its last few runs given its likely latching onto that.

[funster]

Is this storm really a GOM threat? It seems to be favoring a steady west-northwest track.

[Just Joshing You]

Some idiot on CNN is saying things about 94L possibly being a major hurricane in the Gulf and talked about oil etc. I wonder if CNN is trying to cause a panic...

Obviously I'm being sarcastic, but from the way she was talking, it was as if she was wanting to compare it to Katrina.

[CrazyC83]

Has there ever been a hurricane-force wave?

[KWT]

Hard to say Funster, depends partly on where about the center actually decides to form as well various other factors such as whether the high is as strong as progged further north etc...

I do note even a WNW path right now would probably make it a possible S.Texas threat.

[funster]

Hard to say Funster, depends partly on where about the center actually decides to form as well various other factors such as whether the high is as strong as progged further north etc...

I do note even a WNW path right now would probably make it a possible S.Texas threat.

Thanks. Is there not going to be a high pressure system blocking Texas?