H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[Skyhawk]

Well the winds are very light but they did get a wind shift from NW to SE on that leg and a pressure of 1007.7 mb.

[canegrl04]

If the center is indeed still South of 15ºN, unofficially I'd say it is very unlikely this landfalls North of the Rio Grande. SPI might still get some seas and squalls, but, in my amateur opinion, this is a two landfall Mexico threat.

I still tend to favor the 00z GFDL scenario where a powerful hurricane heads NW and N. In the grand scheme of things 2 deg N is not a big deal.

I'll wear nothing but a thong on my pasty white butt on my 200 lb body and walk around my neighborhood screaming "I'm an idiot" if a Cat 5, or a Cat 4, makes landfall withing 100 miles of Houston next week.

I'd throw in Cat 3, but that is tempting fate too much. But my serious, if unofficial hunch, a storm like Claudette, but further South, is a worst case scenario.

When ever someone makes a dare like that,it usually winds up coming to pass Be careful

[hurricanefloyd5]

is it possible that this will become a TS DOLLY, and Two will this become TD$ first?

[Brent]

is it possible that this will become a TS DOLLY, and Two will this become TD$ first?

Models initialized at 35 kt which is TS strength so right now ***IF*** there was a closed circulation it would almost certainly go straight to Dolly.

[hurricanefloyd5]

is it possible that this will become a TS DOLLY, and Two will this become TD$ first?

Models initialized at 35 kt which is TS strength so right now ***IF*** there was a closed circulation it would almost certainly go straight to Dolly.

Cool tyvm!!!!

[bvigal]

Today like yesterday it seems they are missing some of the heaviest convection. Are they chasing a spot the MODELS claim is going to generate a low? (imagine scratching head smiley here)

P.S. Ed, where is your neighborhood? I want to be sure I'm not driving through there at the time,
Just kidding, I think you have a safe bet!

[CrazyC83]

Yep, this is either TS Dolly or an open wave (probably a wave as there seems to be no signs of a circulation). But for those living in areas to be affected, 40-50 mph winds and rain will do the same whether from a storm or a wave.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Please somebody tell me we have dolly??

[Brent]

Please somebody tell me we have dolly??

We don't yet, but keep checking. If we do it'll be posted immediately, no need to keep asking.

I really don't think we do, but you never know.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Please somebody tell me we have dolly??

We don't yet, but keep checking. If we do it'll be posted immediately, no need to keep asking.

oh sorry my bad!! sorry all!!!!

[vaffie]

Please somebody tell me we have dolly??

I think they'll name it Dolly at the 5 pm advisory, but if they don't, at the 11 pm advisory for sure.

[southerngale]

Today like yesterday it seems they are missing some of the heaviest convection. Are they chasing a spot the MODELS claim is going to generate a low? (imagine scratching head smiley here)

P.S. Ed, where is your neighborhood? I want to be sure I'm not driving through there at the time,
Just kidding, I think you have a safe bet!

Here's your smiley.

I think they're headed back to the heavier convection now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Please somebody tell me we have dolly??

We don't yet, but keep checking. If we do it'll be posted immediately, no need to keep asking.

I really don't think we do, but you never know.

Recon, just SW of apparent MLC, should have NW winds if a surface circulation existed, and they don't. Maybe tomorrow's flight.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of missions ahead including the gulfstream jet.

Code: Select all

SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
       A. 20/1200Z                A. 20/1800Z
       B. NOAA2 06AAA CYCLONE     B. AFXXX 07AAA CYCLONE
       C. 20/0800Z                C. 20/1245Z
       D. 19.8N 84.0W             D. 20.5N 85.0W
       E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1600Z    E. 20/1700Z TO 20/2030Z
       F. SFC TO 14,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49    FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 43
       A. 21/0000Z                A. 21/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 08AAA CYCLONE     B. NOAA3 09AAA CYCLONE
       C. 20/1730Z                C. 20/2000Z
       D. NA                      D. 21.5N 86.5W
       E. NA                      E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0400Z
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT     F. SFC TO 14,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 71     FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 42
       A. 21/0600Z                A. 21/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 10AAA CYCLONE     B. NOAA3 11AAA CYCLONE
       C. 21/0315Z                C. 21/0800Z
       D. 22.5N 87.5W             D. 23.0N 89.0W
       E. 21/0500Z TO 21/0830Z    E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. SFC TO 14,000 FT

    5. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
       B. POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 22/0000Z.
    6. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 19/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC
       AT 18/1900Z. NOAA IS NOW TASKED FOR THE 20/1200Z FIX.


[caneman]

I'm here to collect my nickels. And Ed don't scare me with that image again. Although, I'm not sure if that is any worse than you running with a Jeff gordon logo in your sig.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recon apparently climbing slightly to 925 mb level. There is clearly not a surface circulation under the apparent MLC, maybe they are trying to see how low the MLC is.

[senorpepr]

[canegrl04]

I think we will have TS Dolly by 8am tomorrow

[Nimbus]

On the visible loop they have placed a low at 15.2 N 80 W for whatever that is worth. As WXman57 explained the ULL just to the west of 94l has been over running the wave. That means the axis of the wave is a little further west than what it looks like on the visible imagery. It may take a while before they find a west wind.

[swampdude]

If the center is indeed still South of 15ºN, unofficially I'd say it is very unlikely this landfalls North of the Rio Grande. SPI might still get some seas and squalls, but, in my amateur opinion, this is a two landfall Mexico threat.

I still tend to favor the 00z GFDL scenario where a powerful hurricane heads NW and N. In the grand scheme of things 2 deg N is not a big deal.

I'll wear nothing but a thong on my pasty white butt on my 200 lb body and walk around my neighborhood screaming "I'm an idiot" if a Cat 5, or a Cat 4, makes landfall withing 100 miles of Houston next week.

Ed, you running around in a thong might assure us in the Southeast Texas area of being declared a disaster area well before landfall!