H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[curtadams]

Recon is W of convection but winds continue to be mostly southerly so any center would be even further W. That's the right direction with the shear though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the center is indeed still South of 15ºN, unofficially I'd say it is very unlikely this landfalls North of the Rio Grande. SPI might still get some seas and squalls, but, in my amateur opinion, this is a two landfall Mexico threat.

the problem with saying that is if this is the center trying to form then that just means we have a td/ts. becasue at this early stage the center is weak and will shift and most likely be pulled closer the the convection further north and or reform. my point is we cant just say its not going to go somewhere based on the inital center formation ..

yeah, the apparent mid-level circulation on satellite looks closer to 15.5ºN and 77.5ºW, and maybe a new LLC might develop under that. maybe.

[Aric Dunn]

well the last couple sets from recon are showing NE to N winds so maybe they are on to something. and earlier found some westerly compents .. its weak regardless ..

[HURAKAN]

RECON continues far west from the area of the convection and going further west.

[Aric Dunn]

RECON continues far west from the area of the convection and going further west.

hmmmm...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like the recon is not going to find a LLC today. On the other hand Christoball is looking interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

lastes close up sat loops showing something in that area.. its hard to tell but it appears to be some in flow , cloud lines , or an illussion.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

high zoom 30 images..

[HURAKAN]

Latest RECON coordinates:
1419N 08110W

Completely and well away from the convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would look around 15.4/79.5 for a LLC to develop if ones going to develop. Out ahead of the convection is not very likley.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the center is indeed still South of 15ºN, unofficially I'd say it is very unlikely this landfalls North of the Rio Grande. SPI might still get some seas and squalls, but, in my amateur opinion, this is a two landfall Mexico threat.

I still tend to favor the 00z GFDL scenario where a powerful hurricane heads NW and N. In the grand scheme of things 2 deg N is not a big deal.

I'll wear nothing but a thong on my pasty white butt on my 200 lb body and walk around my neighborhood screaming "I'm an idiot" if a Cat 5, or a Cat 4, makes landfall withing 100 miles of Houston next week.

I'd throw in Cat 3, but that is tempting fate too much. But my serious, if unofficial hunch, a storm like Claudette, but further South, is a worst case scenario.

[ROCK]

strange that RECON is flying out to the west well away from convection.

[Ed Mahmoud]

strange that RECON is flying out to the west well away from convection.

yeah, if I were King of the World, the AC would fly around some more near the possible MLC near 15º and 78º to see if something is trying to get going there.


But this does seem to confirm my hunch that 94L, while healthier, still isn't healthy, and it'll be a real stretch to upgrade it today.

[southerngale]

If the center is indeed still South of 15ºN, unofficially I'd say it is very unlikely this landfalls North of the Rio Grande. SPI might still get some seas and squalls, but, in my amateur opinion, this is a two landfall Mexico threat.

I still tend to favor the 00z GFDL scenario where a powerful hurricane heads NW and N. In the grand scheme of things 2 deg N is not a big deal.

Why do you favor that? It was only one run, and an outlier.

[Seadootoo]

maybe they are doing some sampling for the next model runs

[Brent]

If the center is indeed still South of 15ºN, unofficially I'd say it is very unlikely this landfalls North of the Rio Grande. SPI might still get some seas and squalls, but, in my amateur opinion, this is a two landfall Mexico threat.

I still tend to favor the 00z GFDL scenario where a powerful hurricane heads NW and N. In the grand scheme of things 2 deg N is not a big deal.

I'll wear nothing but a thong on my pasty white butt on my 200 lb body and walk around my neighborhood screaming "I'm an idiot" if a Cat 5, or a Cat 4, makes landfall withing 100 miles of Houston next week.

[brunota2003]

So that is why I didnt read that post originally !!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

What in the name of crap is recon doing?

[weatherguru18]

If the center is indeed still South of 15ºN, unofficially I'd say it is very unlikely this landfalls North of the Rio Grande. SPI might still get some seas and squalls, but, in my amateur opinion, this is a two landfall Mexico threat.

I still tend to favor the 00z GFDL scenario where a powerful hurricane heads NW and N. In the grand scheme of things 2 deg N is not a big deal.

I'll wear nothing but a thong on my pasty white butt on my 200 lb body and walk around my neighborhood screaming "I'm an idiot" if a Cat 5, or a Cat 4, makes landfall withing 100 miles of Houston next week.

I'd throw in Cat 3, but that is tempting fate too much. But my serious, if unofficial hunch, a storm like Claudette, but further South, is a worst case scenario.

God I hope not!! (I was actually talking about you in the thong, not the hurricane. LOL)

[CrazyC83]

What in the name of crap is recon doing?

Looking for the center, which is well away from the convection it appears.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like recon snapped out of their trance and are now making their way back to 94L.