ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

84130 3248N 07743W 9770 00278 0089 +208 +208 189055 058 033 005 00

58 kt flight level winds

[txwatcher91]

Wow, that would be between 50-55mph using 80%.

Correct me if I am wrong, but this steering map shows almost due north, and the high has not seemed to budge much. Is the high supposed to weaken and alot this to miss the OBX because this map would indicate almost due north movement should continue.

[Brent]

84130 3248N 07743W 9770 00278 0089 +208 +208 189055 058 033 005 00

58 kt flight level winds

WOW.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, that would be between 50-55mph using 80%.

Correct me if I am wrong, but this steering map shows almost due north, and the high has not seemed to budge much. Is the high supposed to weaken and alot this to miss the OBX because this map would indicate almost due north movement should continue.

the ridge is going to be sliding eastward a little .. well thats whats forecast anyway//

[NC George]

Why isn't there a direct link to this thread from the main forum page (on the bottom of the Talking Tropics box?) There's a link to the thread for Invests 94, 95 and all the rest of the TS's why not Cristobal?

[HarlequinBoy]

It has a really well defined circulation and center, but convection has been waning.

[seahawkjd]

Its waning but seems to be rebuilding quite nicely directly around the center of circulation. At least thats what I see.

[CrazyC83]

At the current height, 45 kt seems to be correct with the 58 kt FL winds.

[txwatcher91]

Wow, that would be between 50-55mph using 80%.

Correct me if I am wrong, but this steering map shows almost due north, and the high has not seemed to budge much. Is the high supposed to weaken and alot this to miss the OBX because this map would indicate almost due north movement should continue.

the ridge is going to be sliding eastward a little .. well thats whats forecast anyway//

I am concerned, though, because the ridge was in almost the exact same spot this morning, it has moved very little.

Now

9 hours ago

[Derek Ortt]

At the current height, 45 kt seems to be correct with the 58 kt FL winds.

uh... no

look at the SFMR winds. Nothing higher than 35KT

[storms in NC]

It seems to be going North for a few hours now. But it could be just me.

[artist]

Hey first time poster here (lurked around as a guest during most of Bertha and stuff)

I'm hoping that maybe we get a little rain from this up here on Long Island considering it hasn't rained here for over a week IIRC. On the flip side, however, I don't wanna be feeling the effects of a strong hurricane hitting here, cause I don't think it would weaken if it took a track to the west as water temperatures are reaching 80 off the Jersey Shore. Should be interesting to follow

P.S.: When's The Weather Channel going on Storm Alert so we can have that awesome music playing on the local on the 8's again? :p

Welcome!

[Aric Dunn]

At the current height, 45 kt seems to be correct with the 58 kt FL winds.

uh... no

look at the SFMR winds. Nothing higher than 35KT

well considering the nhc did not use the sfmr winds when they upgraded. since they were showing much lower winds.. I dont think they are putting to much faith in them at the moment and should continue to go with the standard reduction.

[vacanechaser]

At the current height, 45 kt seems to be correct with the 58 kt FL winds.

uh... no

look at the SFMR winds. Nothing higher than 35KT

well considering the nhc did not use the sfmr winds when they upgraded. since they were showing much lower winds.. I dont think they are putting to much faith in them at the moment and should continue to go with the standard reduction.

yep.. would agree aric... you beat me to it...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[brunota2003]

Even using the .75 reduction for the 58 knot flight level winds still gives you 43.5 knots...

In order to believe the SFMR, the reduction would have to be 60%, which equates to 34.8


The rest of the obs falls in at about 80% reduction (40 knot FL * .80 = 32 knots surface)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The pressure seems to be dropping relatively fast for such a new storm. May be sub 1000 by 11pm at this rate.

Indeed, I'm starting to wonder if Cristobal might pull a Bob 1991. Not saying he'll become a major, but he might make it to a hurricane before things get more hostile.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Vortex message was a 1006 mb. Since SHIPS forecast this morning at 12 hours was only 35 knots, a bit too weak, the 61 knot forecast at 48 hours (48 knots DSHIPS) is probably, if anything, a tad conservative.


I think JB is right, and this could be almost hurricane force. Of course, the next question, will the center be close enough to Hatteras and the Outer Banks for those strong TS winds to be ashore. Which brings up a third point, hugging land, which would allow stronger winds on land, would limit intensification.


All of this is unofficial and not endorsed by Storm2K


This would seem to pose a challenging intensity forecast for the pro-mets.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm wondering if Cristobal will try to pull something somewhat close to Humberto from last year. Yeah, the convection may not be all that impressive, but this system is clearly organizing and I'm not so sure that 58-kt vortex is erroneous.

OK, maybe Cristobal doesn't become a hurricane, and I'm not saying it will. But who thought Humberto would last year too? I've just seen this too many times that it makes me wonder. Systems developing close to land that appear disorganized, only to quickly organize and strengthen as well while moving slowly.

If conditions are just favorable enough, I think Cristobal at least will grow stronger than many think.

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

AL, 03, 2008071918, , BEST, 0, 328N, 782W, 40, 1006, TS

40 knots.

[cpdaman]

Pro's

or anyone, ... is there a reason why there would be multiple reading above 50 knots however only in the mid 30's w/ SFMR (for same wind obs) . is this common? or is there a usual reason for this?