ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[wxman57]

recon did close off a center with Bret in 2005. Even found a closed eye for a brief period of time

I didn't mean not at any time. But as Bret was making landfall there was a period when the planes couldn't find a circulation. It was mentioned in the discussion.

[Sanibel]

Glad I checked in this afternoon. A weak center is still trying to form near 15.2N-79.7W Most important is the convection burst that made a red dot just west of this position over the last few frames. This is the center tag and is day bursting meaning this thing has energy and is trying to form. The ULL is squashing in response to 94L and slightly compromising and weakening. It is still making a flat west border and needs to give way before 94L can wrap its west side. The main convection area that just burst is in the 15N area and moving mostly west, meaning it could hit Yucatan and weaken.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recon earlier found a wind a scoshe West of due South, and I think I can see that on low cloud elements. I doubt it can close off a circulation before the mission ends, but it is getting closer.


Good chance tomorrow's recon does as mentioned, straight from invest to Dolly.


OK, W|shcasting alert, but a strong TS, at most a minimal Cat 1, making landfall near Port O'Connor, would do wonders for my lawn.


I suspect it will be a strong TS or minimal hurricane, but closer to, probably South of, the Rio Grande.


Unofficially.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If it does head for BRO or points South, an organized storm puts my house under subsidence, and hurts my rain chances. Really, a sloppy last minute organizer like Erin would be best.


I would note there was at least one vehicle drowning in Houston with Erin, and there was worse than that with the remnant low in Oklahoma, so even a tropical storm can kill.

[Portastorm]

If it does head for BRO or points South, an organized storm puts my house under subsidence, and hurts my rain chances. Really, a sloppy last minute organizer like Erin would be best.


I would note there was at least one vehicle drowning in Houston with Erin, and there was worse than that with the remnant low in Oklahoma, so even a tropical storm can kill.

Hey Ed, you're being a bit selfish, don't you think?!

We have a greater rainfall deficit (south central Texas) than y'all do right now. I'm putting my order for light to moderate showers off and on for 2-3 days please!

[americanrebel]

Looks like recon might of actually found the LLC, albeit quite SW of the main convection. But I think they will leave it as an invest instead of a TD with 25 Kt winds.

[SkyDragon]

If this is named, then it will have a special meaning to me. When I was little, my brother had a stuffed Dolphin named Dolly. I later found out that Hurricane Dolly formed on the day I was born, 8/19/96!

[SkyDragon]

I hope this gives Texas some rain.

[SkyDragon]

Looks like recon might of actually found the LLC, albeit quite SW of the main convection. But I think they will leave it as an invest instead of a TD with 25 Kt winds.

But a TD is defined as having a circulation, but doesn't have a minimum wind speed.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like recon might of actually found the LLC, albeit quite SW of the main convection. But I think they will leave it as an invest instead of a TD with 25 Kt winds.

yeah, its likely an eddy or something swirling around the larger forming center under convection. I think this because im now seeing low level inflow from the southwest. I dont know what will happen, but i think theres a good chance that tomorrow recon will find dolly.

[SkyDragon]

Looks like recon might of actually found the LLC, albeit quite SW of the main convection. But I think they will leave it as an invest instead of a TD with 25 Kt winds.

yeah, its likely an eddy or something swirling around the larger forming center under convection. I think this because im now seeing low level inflow from the southwest. I dont know what will happen, but i think theres a good chance that tomorrow recon will find dolly.

I hope it is named but remains weak.

[SkyDragon]

If this is named, will it be the first time that more than 2 storms have been in the Atlantic (Bertha,Cristobal,Dolly) since 2005
(Maria,Nate,Ophelia)?

[Derek Ortt]

dean, erin 2007
florence, gordon, 2006

[SkyDragon]

dean, erin 2007
florence, gordon, 2006

I mean 3+

[HURAKAN]

Weird.

[Sanibel]

I have a hard time believing this thing would want to screw itself over by forming the center that far south, unless it just wanted to die a quick death in nicaragua.

A classic example of a weak disturbance being steered by the surface flow.

[SkyDragon]

I hope TD 4 forms soon!

[SkyDragon]

This is the most interesting weekend since last September!

[HURAKAN]

I hope TD 4 forms soon!

94L already has winds of TS intensity.

[canegrl04]

If this is named, then it will have a special meaning to me. When I was little, my brother had a stuffed Dolphin named Dolly. I later found out that Hurricane Dolly formed on the day I was born, 8/19/96!

Let me be the first to say it,if it forms into a TS -Hello Dolly! I have had it in the back of my mind that Dolly would be a memorable hurricane becuz Dolly just sounds like one.Hopefully it won't,though