ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[wxman57]

Oh, and I see that the NHC didn't put the position way east at 76.1W this morning at 12Z, that was the Dvorak analysis page. NHC put it near 15.5N/77.9W at 12Z. That's quite a bit better. So it's around 79W now, out just west of the convection in the trof axis.

[Recurve]

I said "TD today" based on morning satellite appearance three times in four days, and was wrong every time.



I just stared again intently at the satellite loop. It looks a little healthier, but no sign of a closed circulation. So maybe tomorrow, but recon won't find a closed circulation today, IMHO.

Ed you get a star for following up.
A lot of people are getting smarter about conditions and obs being right for development, not just looking at the rainbow loop and seeing TCs spinning every time there's a wave.
I think last year destroyed a lot of people.

[txwatcher91]

Looks like a wave with strong t-storms to me, nothing special.

[Cape Verde]

The GFDL model was enough to get my attention and encourage me to come back to this forum for information.

152 pages is going to be a bit to wade through, but if there's even a remote chance that I'll be in the midst of a major hurricane by mid to late week, knowing about it earlier is preferable. This forum has a consensus wisdom that has served us well in the past.

There really is no consensus on this one, everyone is confused by this one. The Models are even confused by this one.

I'm pretty used to no consensus in the formative stages of a disturbance. Without a closed circulation, the models don't even know where to initiate. But my experience is that this forum has enough experience and points of view that when a storm has developed, the uncertainty of the forecast track and intensity is better than the discussion you're going to get from the local TV weatherbabe.

It's premature for me to really worry about the forecast track when the discussion is rightly focused on whether the storm will form at all.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Has the winds of a 30 knot TD, maybe even a 35 knot storm, but no sign of a closed center yet. Per recon.

[canegrl04]

Its possible we could be saying hello to a TS before its classified as a td?

[txwatcher91]

Its possible we could be saying hello to a TS before its classified as a td?

No, recon will not find an LLC so it won't be upgraded.

[americanrebel]

Maybe some of the old timers can tell us, has there ever been a system in the modern age of radar gone from invest straight to TS without going through TD for at least an hour?

[Cryomaniac]

Maybe some of the old timers can tell us, has there ever been a system in the modern age of radar gone from invest straight to TS without going through TD for at least an hour?

This is not an informative answer, but I'd say that it's not likely.

[Brent]

Maybe some of the old timers can tell us, has there ever been a system in the modern age of radar gone from invest straight to TS without going through TD for at least an hour?

I know Claudette did that in 2003 also in the Caribbean. It had TS force winds for awhile but no closed circulation, the hurricane hunters finally barely closed one off at the very end of a mission.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/pu ... .001.shtml?

[lrak]

I remember it happening before but I'm not an old timer.

[Derek Ortt]

many storms have went right to TS

[cpdaman]

of course

systems who have tropical storm force winds but are waiting on a good enough LLC

[cheezyWXguy]

I think im starting to see the BEGINNING of the formation of a llc. I looked at the rgb loop and noticed some low clouds beginning to swirl on the western side of the convection, near where the NHC put their estimated center. I cant find a discernible center in this, but it looks like the start of a small circulation...looks pretty weak now, but if this can form, we may see td4/cristobal/dolly tomorrow

[southerngale]

Why is this thread up to 149 pages yet TD3 is only to 28? TD3 has the best potential of becoming a moderate TS while this 94L is the same it has always been- a weak wave and nothing more. I really don't see the big deal over this one is has very little chance of developing yet everyone keeps talking about a hurricane from this one when it doesn't even have a LLC and will only have 3 days MAX over water?

Well, this thread was started on July 13th. TD3 thread was just started on the 17th. 4 more days of posting. Anyway, people post where they want to post and nobody can change what interests them.


Btw, you all might want to check out the announcement at the top of this forum.

[txwatcher91]

I saw the announcement just a minute ago, all I was asking was that TD3 is very close to land and could easily become a TS before making landfall tomorrow and will have impacts much sooner than 94L, which is just a wave and has very little chance of developing, wxman57 and Derek even said so. I guess since it is heading towards Texas/Mexico could be the reason since there are alot of Texas and Florida people on here.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe some of the old timers can tell us, has there ever been a system in the modern age of radar gone from invest straight to TS without going through TD for at least an hour?

Yes. Don't ask me to recall the last time it has happened, but recon has gone into an unclassified system and found a T.S.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This doesn't apply here, but there have been aircraft recons in the Atlantic that couldn't close a circulation, but the storm was still a Tropical Storm.



Anyone hazard a guess of the Atlantic storm that didn't have a West wind and stayed a tropical storm per NHC? Clue is in the question.


pro-Mets, you should know this, so amateurs only. No prize, but smug satisfaction.

[Javlin]

I saw the announcement just a minute ago, all I was asking was that TD3 is very close to land and could easily become a TS before making landfall tomorrow and will have impacts much sooner than 94L, which is just a wave and has very little chance of developing, wxman57 and Derek even said so. I guess since it is heading towards Texas/Mexico could be the reason since there are alot of Texas and Florida people on here.

----
I think it's the location to the breeding ground of heat content and then you got synoptics which are much more confusing.You have to admit 94L has been a real PItA to predict.

[brunota2003]

I honestly do not know the answer to the question, but I'll guess anyways!

Kyle 2002?