H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[cycloneye]

Ok Crazy,you can continue post the obs I had a double header now its yours.

[CrazyC83]

OK thanks, at least for a little while I can post.

It will be either Cristobal, Dolly or a wave. It will not be TD4.

[americanrebel]

OK thanks, at least for a little while I can post.

It will be either Cristobal, Dolly or a wave. It will not be TD4.

I think I agree with you, but I think NHC will put TD4 up at the next alert and then about an hour or two later do an emergency alert for an upgrade to TS, so they don't get caught with egg on their face.

[CrazyC83]

OK thanks, at least for a little while I can post.

It will be either Cristobal, Dolly or a wave. It will not be TD4.

I think I agree with you, but I think NHC will put TD4 up at the next alert and then about an hour or two later do an emergency alert for an upgrade to TS, so they don't get caught with egg on their face.

That assumes we have an LLC. It may very well be a TS-strength wave.

[CrazyC83]

Latest SFMR has 47 kt. It is a 45 kt system at least (whether a storm or a wave).

[CrazyC83]

how high can surface winds get in an open tropical wave? This is at 55mph.

I believe Claudette (2003) had 60 mph winds while a wave (the LLC dissipated while a strong TS).

[Cryomaniac]

It will be either Cristobal, Dolly or a wave. It will not be TD4.

What if both this and TD#3 were named at the same time? which would get which name?

[CrazyC83]

It will be either Cristobal, Dolly or a wave. It will not be TD4.

What if both this and TD#3 were named at the same time? which would get which name?

I'm not sure, but I think this would be Dolly and TD3 would be Cristobal as it was numbered first. If TD3 does not warrant an upgrade and an LLC is found here, this becomes Cristobal.

[Cryomaniac]

I'm not sure, but I think this would be Dolly and TD3 would be Cristobal as it was numbered first. If TD3 does not warrant an upgrade and an LLC is found here, this becomes Cristobal.

Makes sense, thanks.

I still can't see an LLC being found in 94L, so the point is probably moot anyway.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It has the winds, but no sign of a West wind yet, but last check the plane hasn't hit the Southern side where it could be.


Satellite seems to suggest that SSE winds feeding toward the apparent center are now about due South, so it is closer to having a West wind, but I don't see one yet.

[senorpepr]

I'm not sure, but I think this would be Dolly and TD3 would be Cristobal as it was numbered first. If TD3 does not warrant an upgrade and an LLC is found here, this becomes Cristobal.

Just because 03L was numbered first, doesn't mean it WILL get Cristobal (although that will probably be the case). Let me remind you of last year: TD 08L became Ingrid and TD 09L became Humberto.

[brunota2003]

OK thanks, at least for a little while I can post.

It will be either Cristobal, Dolly or a wave. It will not be TD4.

I think I agree with you, but I think NHC will put TD4 up at the next alert and then about an hour or two later do an emergency alert for an upgrade to TS, so they don't get caught with egg on their face.

Why would the NHC have egg on their face otherwise? Data from Recon yesterday showed it was barely even a wave, with little shift on the axis...so there wouldn't be any egg, as there has been no other data to prove it gained a LLC since then, until Recon either proves/disproves there is one.

[sgastorm]

Tomorrow's POD

Code: Select all

4. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
       A. 20/1200Z                A. 20/1800Z
       B. NOAA2 06AAA CYCLONE     B. AFXXX 07AAA CYCLONE
       C. 20/0800Z                C. 20/1245Z
       D. 19.8N 84.0W             D. 20.5N 85.0W
       E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1600Z    E. 20/1700Z TO 20/2030Z
       F. SFC TO 14,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49    FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 43
       A. 21/0000Z                A. 21/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 08AAA CYCLONE     B. NOAA3 09AAA CYCLONE
       C. 20/1730Z                C. 20/2000Z
       D. NA                      D. 21.5N 86.5W
       E. NA                      E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0400Z
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT     F. SFC TO 14,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 71     FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 42
       A. 21/0600Z                A. 21/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 10AAA CYCLONE     B. NOAA3 11AAA CYCLONE
       C. 21/0315Z                C. 21/0800Z
       D. 22.5N 87.5W             D. 23.0N 89.0W
       E. 21/0500Z TO 21/0830Z    E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. SFC TO 14,000 FT

    5. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
       B. POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 22/0000Z.
    6. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 19/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC
       AT 18/1900Z. NOAA IS NOW TASKED FOR THE 20/1200Z FIX.

[Frank2]

Screaming easterlies with the wave surge - that seems to be all they've found at this time, but, they need to task flights just in case...

[brunota2003]

Hey sgastorm:
If you put that POD into Code (like quote, but called code), it'll fix it.

[HURAKAN]

Where are they going? Leaving?

[Ed Mahmoud]

171500 1433N 07856W 9928 00135 0083 +246 +200 193010 011 999 999 03

A thin hair West of due South. Close, but no cigar.

[HarlequinBoy]

Shouldn't they do the southern half?

[HURAKAN]

Shouldn't they do the southern half?

That's what I was thinking.

[Aric Dunn]

there imediate concern is the side that is going to be impacting the coast .. the other half may have tropical storm winds but wont be affecting the coast.

wierd i clicked on the wrong thread ... lol .. though you were talking about TD 3



nevermind