wxman57 wrote:Looking at 94L on satellite today, it's still having a tough fight with that upper low to its west. Just an open wave, no LLC. Recon won't find anything but that this afternoon, most likely. Yes, the upper low is helping to enhance the convection, but the circulation just can't get going yet. I think it's a net negative effect as far as 94L's development. One thing that the upper low is doing is helping to generate convection farther north, well north of 15N. This would be the place to watch for possible development. So the key is what will that upper low do? GFS moves it west pretty quickly to the northern Yucatan. The convection would follow it westward, moving toward the northern to central Yucatan. The upper low is forecast to weaken in another 24 hours, so maybe 94L can get organized late today or Sunday. Probably no TD this afternoon.
Now the GFDL develops 94L instantly and takes it more northwestward, and that's probably an error. A weaker system tracks into the northern Yucatan as the GFS is forecasting and I'd go with that. Wind shear looks a bit strong as it moves into the Gulf on Monday morning, but the GFS forecast is for decreasing shear Monday afternoon. I think that's when there will be a good chance of strengthening/development. Model guidance is concentrated on northern MX to TX. Looks reasonable, though I'd go with the lower TX coast to northern MX for landfall on Wednesday. As for intensity, most likely a TS but I wouldn't rule out hurricane strength by any means. The difference between a TS and a hurricane is only maybe 3-6 hours of reduced shear.
Oh, and Bones says "point out that it hasn't developed yet". I told him to go sit back down until it moves inland next week.
Double Post Advisory as Ed would say.
Still have tape on Bones' mouth I take it.
Thanks for the update wxman57.
