ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

Station 42058 - Central Caribbean

Continuous Winds
1250 ESE ( 116 deg ) 28.6 kts
1240 ESE ( 114 deg ) 27.2 kts
1230 ESE ( 113 deg ) 27.0 kts
1220 ESE ( 115 deg ) 29.1 kts
1210 ESE ( 114 deg ) 26.4 kts
1200 ESE ( 113 deg ) 26.2 kts

This buoy is south of 94L and no west wind has been recorded. No LLC.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well we can clearly see the Cuban ULL ripped 94L up pretty good. A remnant swirl exists at 14.2N-78W but it is probably just the exiting center after having the top ripped away and sent up the east side of the ULL. A couple of convection bursts are firing in the lower part of the wave as it tries to maintain but the ULL is still strong right in front of it.

This will be interesting to see how a persistent wave survives a ULL. And maybe we will actually see one of those relocations everyone speculates about.

THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE ULL!
The system is just being its old self,with the little convergence it has always had. Its just the diurnal changes at work on a weak system. The ull was venting outflow yesterday, and is moving to the west of it today. It has not put any extra shear on this system since it was in the e. carib.

[caneman]

But indeed a strong wave I believe. One thing to note folks is that wave is almost parallel with the wave. Once it drops to its SW it will be in a more aiding position. Further, NHC says it's already in a favorbale environment.

[NDG]

I think why we have not seen this MLC we were watching last night work down to the surface is because the very strong surface jet that wxman57 has been talking to us about that takes place S of Hispaniola & Jamaica this time of the year, is hard for a any circulation get going with such a strong surface wind jet cutting underneath the MLC. So I give credit to wxman57.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This thing now just looks like a weak wave. No center, no spin to it, just convection. But, it's still in a favorabe area and if the convection can persist for at least 24 hrs, then I think it can become a TD.

[HURAKAN]

Ship reporting S winds abut I think the ship is too far south to be related to the system.

[Sanibel]

THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE ULL!

The wave is obviously being pulled up the east side of the ULL. So actually it has everything to do with the ULL. The shape of the wave tells you that. The whole story here is whether the ULL allows 94L to survive intact enough to pass and keep going.


The trend with 94L is weakness and failure to develop. I also think 96L doesn't help it being that close.

[NDG]

Wow, I would had sent the recon tonight or even for tomorrow morning not this morning.

[txwatcher91]

This thing now just looks like a weak wave. No center, no spin to it, just convection. But, it's still in a favorabe area and if the convection can persist for at least 24 hrs, then I think it can become a TD.

Convection has been persistent the past 4 days and this hasn't developed, and it is weaker now, the MLC has weakend, and about 5 days it had an LLC but now doesn't have one. I see the opposite happening, further weakening/disorganization.

[cheezyWXguy]

THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE ULL!

The wave is obviously being pulled up the east side of the ULL. So actually it has everything to do with the ULL. The shape of the wave tells you that. The whole story here is whether the ULL allows 94L to survive intact enough to pass and keep going.


The trend with 94L is weakness and failure to develop. I also think 96L doesn't help it being that close.

There has been no shear induced into 94L by the ull...all it has done is vent outflow. Now the ULL is going away and creating a weakness...for once an ULL isnt doing something negative to the storm.

[NDG]

THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE ULL!

The wave is obviously being pulled up the east side of the ULL. So actually it has everything to do with the ULL. The shape of the wave tells you that. The whole story here is whether the ULL allows 94L to survive intact enough to pass and keep going.


The trend with 94L is weakness and failure to develop. I also think 96L doesn't help it being that close.

96L is not doing anything to it.

[cheezyWXguy]

This thing now just looks like a weak wave. No center, no spin to it, just convection. But, it's still in a favorabe area and if the convection can persist for at least 24 hrs, then I think it can become a TD.

Convection has been persistent the past 4 days and this hasn't developed, and it is weaker now, the MLC has weakend, and about 5 days it had an LLC but now doesn't have one. I see the opposite happening, further weakening/disorganization.

Convection hasnt persisted. It has been doing diurnal flare-ups. If it keep what it has now for just one day, we might see a llc develop.

[HurricaneHunter914]

THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE ULL!

The wave is obviously being pulled up the east side of the ULL. So actually it has everything to do with the ULL. The shape of the wave tells you that. The whole story here is whether the ULL allows 94L to survive intact enough to pass and keep going.


The trend with 94L is weakness and failure to develop. I also think 96L doesn't help it being that close.

Sanibel, I doubt that 96L is doing ANYTHING to 94L. A td off the coast of the Carolinas can't affect an invest in the caribbean.

[Sanibel]

for once an ULL isnt doing something negative to the storm

You're completely wrong.

I ask you then to explain why 94L has a north-south elongation right up the side of the ULL and not the round compact form it had yesterday?

[cycloneye]

Lets wait to see what recon finds and go in the debate from there.

[Cryomaniac]

Lets wait to see what recon finds and go in the debate from there.

I'm guessing recon finds very little, as has been the case the past few days.

[cheezyWXguy]

for once an ULL isnt doing something negative to the storm

You're completely wrong.

I ask you then to explain why 94L has a north-south elongation right up the side of the ULL and not the round compact form it had yesterday?

Its just disorganized convection from weak wave. Its look is the luck of the draw right now, because shear is only maybe 10kt right about now, and it was maybe 10-15kt yesterday.

[Emmett_Brown]

The upper low is still in a bad position, NW of the wave, moving in tandem, causing shear. If you look at the vapor loop, it is pretty obvious. If the ULL was a 150 miles further W, it would be causing a more favorable venting pattern... but it is definitely being sheared at this moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

The low is forecast by the GFS to weaken and slide W out of the way by 36 hours:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_12.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_48.gif

Until this happens, no formation. However, I would also say that the relative position of the ULL has caused the system to be nudged further north. If it develops tomorrow, i could see this clipping the Yucatan or even passing through the channel.

[Javlin]

The upper low is still in a bad position, NW of the wave, moving in tandem, causing shear. If you look at the vapor loop, it is pretty obvious. If the ULL was a 150 miles further W, it would be causing a more favorable venting pattern... but it is definitely being sheared at this moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

The low is forecast by the GFS to weaken and slide W out of the way by 36 hours:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_12.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_48.gif

Until this happens, no formation. However, I would also say that the relative position of the ULL has caused the system to be nudged further north. If it develops tomorrow, i could see this clipping the Yucatan or even passing through the channel.

I will have to agree with EB and Sanibel on the impact of the ULL and has been my contention since Thurs Night
the impact will likely be negative.It depends all on location of these ULL and how they impact systems.This ULL as EB eluded is clearly moving the building cloud tops to the N and out until this ULL disappearsor moves far enough away expect little from 94L.

[wxman57]

Looking at 94L on satellite today, it's still having a tough fight with that upper low to its west. Just an open wave, no LLC. Recon won't find anything but that this afternoon, most likely. Yes, the upper low is helping to enhance the convection, but the circulation just can't get going yet. I think it's a net negative effect as far as 94L's development. One thing that the upper low is doing is helping to generate convection farther north, well north of 15N. This would be the place to watch for possible development. So the key is what will that upper low do? GFS moves it west pretty quickly to the northern Yucatan. The convection would follow it westward, moving toward the northern to central Yucatan. The upper low is forecast to weaken in another 24 hours, so maybe 94L can get organized late today or Sunday. Probably no TD this afternoon.

Now the GFDL develops 94L instantly and takes it more northwestward, and that's probably an error. A weaker system tracks into the northern Yucatan as the GFS is forecasting and I'd go with that. Wind shear looks a bit strong as it moves into the Gulf on Monday morning, but the GFS forecast is for decreasing shear Monday afternoon. I think that's when there will be a good chance of strengthening/development. Model guidance is concentrated on northern MX to TX. Looks reasonable, though I'd go with the lower TX coast to northern MX for landfall on Wednesday. As for intensity, most likely a TS but I wouldn't rule out hurricane strength by any means. The difference between a TS and a hurricane is only maybe 3-6 hours of reduced shear.

Oh, and Bones says "point out that it hasn't developed yet". I told him to go sit back down until it moves inland next week.