ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Portastorm]

FWIW, JB opines this morning in his blog that the ULL is weakening and will eventually serve to ventilate the system. Says he doesn't see the Yucatan doing much to mess up the development as it will not be a "major" at that point. Sees this being (worst case) a Cat-2 with landfall south of the Rio Grande.

I can't imagine a landfall anywhere close to being south of the Rio Grande. JMO

24 North to be exact ... but he did say that south Texas should keep a very close eye out.

[Janie2006]

I'll give 94L this much...it's certainly giving it the old college try. Poor thing just can't seem to get over the hump, so to speak. As for getting a Cat 5 hurricane at the Sabine River out of this mess, well, the chances are rather remote. Interesting model run, though.

[Derek Ortt]

the cat 5 from the GFDL is now a thing of the past... now has a cat 2

HWRF also now only has a tropical storm

[Derek Ortt]

you though need a surface feature... last night we barely had a wind shift

[Portastorm]

And a cat 2 would turn further N making a MX landfall a possible, but remote possibility. I disagree with JB here.

Why? Weaker tropical systems are moved more predominantly by the lower level flow as our pro mets have told us here. That would explain the steady west-northwest movement to an eventual landfall on the NE Mexican coastline.

I don't see anything in the GFS runs to show me the ridge is going to erode much. It's quite possible (and even suggested already by some) that this system, if it EVER develops, won't do much until it reaches the Bay of Campeche or Gulf waters. It could be one of those systems that only ramps up less than 24 hrs from landfall ... thus making it more likely to move along the lower level flow.

[bob rulz]

This really is just based on gut feeling (actually, I'd say an educated guess), but I just have a hard time believing that this will not develop at some point in the GOM. Once it gets out of the way of land for once and over the warm, untapped waters of the GOM, it will have a chance to organize as long as shear cooperates. And for once it'll be relatively uninterrupted.

Remember Humberto last year? I'm not saying it'll do that, and it is only July, but the GOM has a habit of playing nasty tricks on you pretty much any time of the year, and once a storm gets in there there's not really anywhere it can go that's not land.

[Derek Ortt]

this has as much of a chance to develop as any other WEAK wave

Weak waves fail to develop more often than not

[Portastorm]

Why? Weaker tropical systems are moved more predominantly by the lower level flow as our pro mets have told us here.

A cat 2 hurricane is not a weak tropical system though.

Let me give you a hypothetical -- which in the case of 94L I think would be very possible -- say this system struggles for another day but starts to get its act together by late tomorrow. It's now in the WC. Reaches "depression" status but then encounters the Yucatan and gains no more organization. By Monday it re-emerges off the Yucatan and starts to organize better and within 24 hours gains tropical storm status. It's still moving at 15-20 mph clip, too. You've only got another day or so prior to landfall. It could reach hurricane status within 12 hrs of landfall and even if it was rapidly intensifying ... it's not enough to over the lower level flow that has been pushing the system all along in a west-northwest fashion.

[Portastorm]

Of course if it is right along the coast and rapidly strengthens then it wont change the landfall location much. However, I do note that GFDL slows it down to between 5-10kts in 66 hours and keeps it there through hour 126.

And granted, I am assuming the system keeps its pace. Should it slow down significantly, all bets are off.

[caneman]

Derek,

I would have to respectfully disagree with your classification as a "weak wave" Looking at the Satellite page this morning it looks rather strong and on it's way to organizing.

[cheezyWXguy]

Derek,

I would have to respectfully disagree with your classification as a "weak wave" Looking at the Satellite page this morning it looks rather strong and on it's way to organizing.

Thats what we thought yesterday. The only way it will organize is if the convection remains consistent enough to develop a surface feature. It doesnt matter how pretty the colors look.

[cycloneye]

I think what Derek is saying is that no matter how impressive it looks at satellite,if it does not have a surface feature,nothing will occur.

[HURAKAN]

Derek,

I would have to respectfully disagree with your classification as a "weak wave" Looking at the Satellite page this morning it looks rather strong and on it's way to organizing.

Thats what we thought yesterday. The only way it will organize is if the convection remains consistent enough to develop a surface feature. It doesnt matter how pretty the colors look.

Still, it's not a weak wave but a strong wave.

[cheezyWXguy]

Derek,

I would have to respectfully disagree with your classification as a "weak wave" Looking at the Satellite page this morning it looks rather strong and on it's way to organizing.

Thats what we thought yesterday. The only way it will organize is if the convection remains consistent enough to develop a surface feature. It doesnt matter how pretty the colors look.

Still, it's not a weak wave but a strong wave.

Maybe true, but it does have a weak surface feature.

[Derek Ortt]

if it were a strong wave, there would be a sharp surface trough

[caneman]

Cheezy,

Yeah, I've done this too long to just look at pretty colors though. Looking at the cloud patterns, bubbling and what looks to be a trailer arm feeding the system on the backside and the Ull looks like it is getting in a more aiding position and entering a more synoptically favored area.

[cheezyWXguy]

Cheezy,

Yeah, I've done this too long to just look at pretty colors though. Looking at the cloud patterns, bubbling and what looks to be a trailer arm feeding the system on the backside and the Ull looks like it is getting in a more aiding position and entering a more synoptically favored area.

I realize that...I didnt say I didnt think that it could eventually organize, but if the convection disappears again today, then nothing will happen. if it can hold those cloud tops the way they are for another 24 hours, we might a see a surface feature develop.

[txwatcher91]

Why is this thread up to 149 pages yet TD3 is only to 28? TD3 has the best potential of becoming a moderate TS while this 94L is the same it has always been- a weak wave and nothing more. I really don't see the big deal over this one is has very little chance of developing yet everyone keeps talking about a hurricane from this one when it doesn't even have a LLC and will only have 3 days MAX over water?

[Sanibel]

Well we can clearly see the Cuban ULL ripped 94L up pretty good. A remnant swirl exists at 14.2N-78W but it is probably just the exiting center after having the top ripped away and sent up the east side of the ULL. A couple of convection bursts are firing in the lower part of the wave as it tries to maintain but the ULL is still strong right in front of it.

This will be interesting to see how a persistent wave survives a ULL. And maybe we will actually see one of those relocations everyone speculates about.

[Portastorm]

Well we can clearly see the Cuban ULL ripped 94L up pretty good. A remnant swirl exists at 14.2N-78W but it is probably just the exiting center after having the top ripped away and sent up the east side of the ULL. A couple of convection bursts are firing in the lower part of the wave as it tries to maintain but the ULL is still strong right in front of it.

This will be interesting to see how a persistent wave survives a ULL. And maybe we will actually see one of those relocations everyone speculates about.

The ULL is progged to weaken but the WV loop shows no sign of that happening at the moment. Hard to see how 94L will ever organize as long as this ULL is shadowing it.