Will Claudette survive?

#1 Postby **ALhurricane** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 7:56 pm

Given the latest recon... 1013mb and only 39kt flight level winds, the question now is if Claudette will even survive to make it into the Gulf?

Satellite loops show an unorganized mess with no signs of recovery. Claudette may be on the way out the door.

wrkh99 · #2 Postby **wrkh99** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:00 pm

Anouther horrible recon job !

chadtm80 · #3 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:01 pm

YES she will IMO... Shes not letting us off the hook that easy

#4 Postby **ALhurricane** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:02 pm

Now wrkh.... why do you say that?

I see no evidence on why I should doubt what the recon is reporting in. Those people perform a great service for us and they do their absolute best.

#5 Postby **Andrew92** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:03 pm

I think she will. I hope she doesn't though.

-Andrew92

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:12 pm

Well at least by the 11 PM advisory it will be still a tropical storm but the winds will be down 20 from 70 mph to 50 mph.Looking ay the history of this system it well may survive this bad period for it as it has been attacked once again by the shear.

Lindaloo · #7 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:16 pm

Local met here this evening said she was a hurricane for about two hours today. Pretty impressive for someone that is on their way out. :roll:

wrkh99 · #8 Postby **wrkh99** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:24 pm

Was it Mike Reiter ?

I love WLOX HD 13

Lindaloo · #9 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:31 pm

wrkh99 wrote:Was it Mike Reiter ?

I love WLOX HD 13

Yep, I know alot of people do not like him. BUT.. he was the ONLY one that pinpointed Georges and kept us all out of harms way. The NHC said it was going more west of us and Mike said it wasn't. So we were all prepared in Ocean Springs, Gautier and Pascagoula to be hammered, and we were. If I had listened to the NHC at the time (all of us here) then we would have been in BIG BIG trouble.

JetMaxx · #10 Postby **JetMaxx** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:36 pm

Claudette is one of the most bizarre tropical storms I've ever seen in my life...and I'm totally bumfuzzled.

At 9 a.m. this morning, I'd have bet money she'd be a 100+ mph hurricane before landfall on the Yucatan peninsula....deepening from 1004 to 988 mb in 10 hours over some of the MOST CONDUCTIVE waters for intensification in the Western Hemisphere -- and now only 12 hours later the "hurricane" (per 76 kt flight level winds and 988 mb) is now barely a depression IMO...and may be dissapated by morning..

A storm that was born where storms usually die now apparently decides to die where storms (i.e.- Allen, Gilbert, Mitch) sometimes become monsters....jeesh!!

Anyone know where that Dyn-O-Mat plane has been flying today???

-------
PW

#11 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:49 pm

JetMaxx wrote:Claudette is one of the most bizarre tropical storms I've ever seen in my life...and I'm totally bumfuzzled.

At 9 a.m. this morning, I'd have bet money she'd be a 100+ mph hurricane before landfall on the Yucatan peninsula....deepening from 1004 to 988 mb in 10 hours over some of the MOST CONDUCTIVE waters for intensification in the Western Hemisphere -- and now only 12 hours later the "hurricane" (per 76 kt flight level winds and 988 mb) is now barely a depression IMO...and may be dissapated by morning..

A storm that was born where storms usually die now apparently decides to die where storms (i.e.- Allen, Gilbert, Mitch) sometimes become monsters....jeesh!!

Anyone know where that Dyn-O-Mat plane has been flying today???

-------
PW

ROFLMAO!!!!! YOU HIT THAT ONE ON THE HEAD PERRY!!

Now where is that dang plane? I did see one flying SE out of Houston with something that looked like mats flying out the back!!! :lol:

ColdFront77 · #12 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:50 pm

Claudette has been developing convection the last several nights. Perry, you don't think that's possible in the next 12 hours?

The convection hasn't actually still there (of course)... it just doesn't look like it did earlier today.

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:00 pm

JetMaxx wrote:Claudette is one of the most bizarre tropical storms I've ever seen in my life...and I'm totally bumfuzzled.

At 9 a.m. this morning, I'd have bet money she'd be a 100+ mph hurricane before landfall on the Yucatan peninsula....deepening from 1004 to 988 mb in 10 hours over some of the MOST CONDUCTIVE waters for intensification in the Western Hemisphere -- and now only 12 hours later the "hurricane" (per 76 kt flight level winds and 988 mb) is now barely a depression IMO...and may be dissapated by morning..

A storm that was born where storms usually die now apparently decides to die where storms (i.e.- Allen, Gilbert, Mitch) sometimes become monsters....jeesh!!

Anyone know where that Dyn-O-Mat plane has been flying today???

-------
PW

Great speculation but this one has been trouble for the start..I say it's not over till the recon gets cancelled. I will continue to watch her!! :roll:

JetMaxx · #14 Postby **JetMaxx** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:01 pm

Anything is possible Tom...but I don't ever recall witnessing a storm go from 988 mb to 1013 mb in 12 hours over the NW Caribbean before -- never...not even in November. If that 1013 mb reading is truly the center -- this storm has been totally shredded. In all honesty, 1013 mb is too high to even call it a TS -- esp. if 39 kts are the strongest flight level winds out there.

Could Claudette come back and re-strengthen? You betcha....especially if she misses the Yucatan and the shear relaxes.

Remember....both Audrey and Opal were only weak depressions in the southern GOM/ Yucatan area -- and became monsters. Nothing is impossible with a tropical system over warm waters.

Perry

#15 Postby **Andrew92** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:04 pm

Actually at one point long before it made landfall when it was being sheared, Andrew in 1992 had a 1015-mb pressure but was still a tropical storm somehow.

Anything's possible I guess.

-Andrew92

ColdFront77 · #16 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:04 pm

The convection associated with Claudette has been refiring the last several overnights.

It is easy to think that the 1013 millibar pressure is too high with this system. The NHC and the Hurricane Hunters may be confused with this situation, too.

Rainband · #17 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:05 pm

JetMaxx wrote:Anything is possible Tom...but I recall ever witnessing a storm go from 988 mb to 1013 mb in 12 hours over the NW Caribbean before -- never...not even in November. If that 1013 mb reading is truly the center -- this storm has been totally shredded. In all honesty, 1013 mb is too high to even call it a TS -- esp. if 39 kts are the strongest flight level winds out there.

Could Claudette come back and re-strengthen? You betcha....especially if she misses the Yucatan and the shear relaxes.

Remember....both Audrey and Opal were only weak depressions in the southern GOM/ Yucatan area -- and became monsters. Nothing is impossible with a tropical system over warm waters.

Perry

This is one tough tropical nutet to crack :roll:

:o

Stormsfury · #18 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:08 pm

Remember ... Claudette has had such a small circulation that rapid changes will be experienced at any slight changes that disrupt or aid Claudette in any way ... and the last 2-3 days I think have proven that ...

Claudette has two main of convection and deep blowups are occurring both west and east of the LLC ... shear is clearly lessening based on the more circular pattern to the upper cloud canopy, and Claudette is slowly becoming a ticking time bomb ready to explode ... and if all factors come in line, the GFDL from last years' too explosive deepening of storms could actually get one right ...

We're entering the nocturnal maxima for the deep convection explosions of tropical systems and since Claudette has seemed to favor the nighttime anyway, I don't see anything changing with that synopsis ... the diurnal minimum has been a nightmare for Claudette ...

Anyway, Claudette is too tenacious of a system to just go away quietly in the night, IMO...

Colin · #19 Postby **Colin** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:35 pm

I'm not giving up until she gives up...and it doesn't look like it'll be anytime soon. But I have to tell you, I wouldn't be surprised if Claudette wasn't even a storm in the morning...only time will tell.

#20 Postby **Steve** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:52 pm

>>shear is clearly lessening based on the more circular pattern to the upper cloud canopy, and Claudette is slowly becoming a ticking time bomb ready to explode

Yep.

Steve

Will Claudette survive?

Will Claudette survive?

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