ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[cpdaman]

senorprer

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1

bouy located at 80.24 w. the winds have switched from south earlier to NW , that tells me LLC is further east

I'm not sold on that observation for being representative on the circulation. It appears that wind was influenced by some localized event (outflow, etc). It sticks out-of-place when you do a streamline analysis.

Speaking of which, I just sat down and drew up a streamline, using METAR/SPECI, Ships, Buoys, and cloud features and I'm getting the circulation around 31.5°/80.8°. (Once again, this matches up well with SAB and TAFB's 18Z fix, at least longitudinally of 80.8° and 80.6°, respectively.)

but that bouy i was referencing has had w to nw winds for 5 hours now

[jaxfladude]

So is the drought areas of NC and nearby areas about to get the rain they need? Need latest forecast track please....

Inland areas may be mostly dry if it stays near the coast like the consensus says.

HWFI is interesting...

Darn it....hopefully the system (at most TS)as it moves over or just past the NC coastal region the "wet part" will be on the western side not the usual eastern half in developing systems.....

[tolakram]

['CaneFreak]

312N, 804W

HMMMMMMMMMM

[Aric Dunn]

beside any of those observations can just as easily be invalid due to localized effects .. for instanse the St. Augustine buoy has a south wins which makes no sense..

Wait... are you talking about SAUF1?

It's reporting NE winds.
CMAN 19004 SAUF1 46/// /0405 10267 20247 40155 53005 90000 222// 00270 333 91206 555 11005 22005 32349 405008 62359 035005 03005 310003 330003 35

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012

Well, that observation actually sets well with the rest of the observations. There's a convergence asymptote nearby that it works with. EVB, DAB, PDNN, GTXF1, TTS easily confirm that 41012 is valid.[/quote]


i guess will see.. but the that buoy report is out of place , just by using common sense from the radar and satellite analysis

the center cannot be in the middle of rainband nor can it be so far west that it would be exposed to the visible images ( which its not) so since its not exposed and cant be in a rainband ... well then lol .. everyone is wrong and we are all going to die

[brunota2003]

Alright...the pressure center passed over this buoy within the last couple hours:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1

Out of all the obs I looked at, it seemed to get the lowest at 29.88, or 1012 millibars. Sustained winds have peaked at 19 knots, currently 17. Assuming there is stronger winds away in the deepest storms...25 knots seems reasonable.

[wxman57]

New model guidance is out as Tropical Cyclone Three. 31.7N/79.8W 25 kts

[senorpepr]

I didn't say it was in a rainband. It was north of that.

[Aric Dunn]

I didn't say it was in a rainband. It was north of that.

no you did not but the buoy would suggest that.. lol
anyway wxman57 just posted the coordiantes..

[senorpepr]

New model guidance is out as Tropical Cyclone Three. 31.7N/79.8W 25 kts

Thanks for posting that, while I don't quite agree that it's that far east.

[RL3AO]

As wxman said.

875
WHXX01 KWBC 190024
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032008) 20080719 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080719 0000 080719 1200 080720 0000 080720 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.7N 79.8W 32.5N 79.4W 33.2N 78.5W 33.5N 77.2W
BAMD 31.7N 79.8W 32.0N 80.0W 32.5N 79.9W 32.8N 79.3W
BAMM 31.7N 79.8W 32.4N 79.8W 33.0N 79.2W 33.4N 78.0W
LBAR 31.7N 79.8W 32.4N 79.6W 33.3N 79.0W 34.1N 77.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080721 0000 080722 0000 080723 0000 080724 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.5N 75.5W 33.3N 72.7W 34.0N 71.6W 37.9N 68.5W
BAMD 32.8N 78.1W 32.6N 77.3W 33.9N 77.4W 37.1N 74.5W
BAMM 33.4N 76.3W 33.6N 74.3W 35.3N 73.4W 39.9N 68.8W
LBAR 34.8N 76.2W 37.3N 71.9W 45.2N 62.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 31KTS 34KTS 42KTS 43KTS
DSHP 31KTS 34KTS 42KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.7N LONCUR = 79.8W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 31.1N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 19DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 30.8N LONM24 = 80.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



THREE, AL, L, , , , , 03, 2008, TD, O, 2008071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL032008
AL, 03, 2008071700, , BEST, 0, 290N, 805W, 15, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2008071706, , BEST, 0, 295N, 805W, 15, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2008071712, , BEST, 0, 301N, 805W, 15, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2008071718, , BEST, 0, 305N, 803W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 80, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2008071800, , BEST, 0, 308N, 804W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 80, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 03, 2008071806, , BEST, 0, 308N, 805W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 80, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 03, 2008071812, , BEST, 0, 311N, 805W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 90, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2008071818, , BEST, 0, 313N, 803W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 120, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2008071900, , BEST, 0, 317N, 798W, 25, 1011, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M,

['CaneFreak]

ok use what ever satellite floater you want and loop images after and before "21:15" just a couple of frames you can see part the circulation exposed bewteen 31.2 to 31.4 and about 79.6 to 79.9

I didn't say it was in a rainband. It was north of that.

New model guidance is out as Tropical Cyclone Three. 31.7N/79.8W 25 kts

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW.....we're gonna die!!!!!

[brunota2003]

I also disagree with the 1011 millibars...the lowest I saw on the buoy was 29.88, or 1012 millibars. I assume it missed the center directly, then...or I missed an ob somewhere (which is entirely possible).

[wxman57]

New model guidance is out as Tropical Cyclone Three. 31.7N/79.8W 25 kts

Thanks for posting that, while I don't quite agree that it's that far east.

Interesting that the surface obs make the low look weaker than it was this morning - 5-15 kts around it. Center less well-defined than earlier.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I believe the main center is relocating to a position near 31.2 N and 79.7 W based on radar, surface observations/ASOS, and satellite data. This position is directly co-located under the mid level rotation and strongest convection (denoted by overshooting tops from "hot towers" on visible imagery, which often signals intensification). Strengthening low level inflow from intensifying developing thunderstorms should aid the formation of a defined LLC in this vicinity, as I mentioned earlier. New 00Z initial model positions confirm my thoughts with a similiar position as well.

I can understand Mike's arguments for a LLC further west, but I personally don't believe the data I'm viewing supports it. Regardless, this is one situation where a correct initial center position is absolutely paramount, especially in regards to the intensity forecasts. As I mentioned in a post earlier today, I'm growing concerned about the potential for a period of quick intensification in the current favorable synoptic/thermodynamic environment. If the center is erroneously initialized too far west, that may be reflected in the NHC forecast cone, which may indicate a landfall too early, resulting in a underestimation of the pre-landfall intensification. What if the center is actually further east and remains offshore for a greater time period than expected like Humberto in 2007? I'm not criticizing anyone, but you must remain concerned about residents' preparedness in these cases.

[Aric Dunn]

New model guidance is out as Tropical Cyclone Three. 31.7N/79.8W 25 kts

Thanks for posting that, while I don't quite agree that it's that far east.

Interesting that the surface obs make the low look weaker than it was this morning - 5-15 kts around it. Center less well-defined than earlier.

could it that maybe its just that the strongest winds are farther east.. and that earlier the center was slightly exposed and since the center has been drifting east today that most of those observation are getting farther away and becoming more susceptible to local interaction

[CrazyC83]

I would also expect a Tropical Storm Warning to be thrown at 11 as well.

I would throw it from Fernandina Beach, FL to Surf City, NC (the GA, SC and S NC coasts) and a Tropical Storm Watch from Surf City to Cape Hatteras.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I believe the main center is relocating to a position near 31.2 N and 79.7 W based on radar, surface observations/ASOS, and satellite data. This position is directly co-located under the mid level rotation and strongest convection (denoted by overshooting tops from "hot towers" on visible imagery, which often signals intensification). Strengthening low level inflow from intensifying developing thunderstorms should aid the formation of a defined LLC in this vicinity, as I mentioned earlier. New 00Z initial model positions confirm my thoughts with a similiar position as well.

I can understand Mike's arguments for a LLC further west, but I personally don't believe the data I'm viewing supports it. Regardless, this is one situation where a correct initial center position is absolutely paramount, especially in regards to the intensity forecasts. As I mentioned in a post earlier today, I'm growing concerned about the potential for a period of quick intensification in the current favorable synoptic/thermodynamic environment. If the center is erroneously initialized too far west, that may be reflected in the NHC forecast cone, which may indicate a landfall too early, resulting in a underestimation of the pre-landfall intensification. What if the center is actually further east and remains offshore for a greater time period than expected like Humberto in 2007? I'm not criticizing anyone, but you must remain concerned about residents' preparedness in these cases.

By the way, I'm not unequivocably stating that I expect an intensification rate similar to Humberto, but this situation seems slightly reminescent of Alex 2004 in its early life stages.

[NC George]

Have you seen the corn crops? There is no hope left for them. But the tobacco may make it if they get the rains. With the Midwest corn gone and ours people will be paying high$$$$ this winter

Yes, I have a field of corn right next to my house, looks pretty bad (although we got a bit of rain recently and it made a tremendous difference in the appearance of the plants. They were barely green and the only growing on the top 1/2 of the plant, now the top 1/2 is at least a bright healthy green.)

[wxsouth]

The main data point I see supporting the farther east location is platform SKNG1 which has been northwest the last two hours. Assuming this is a valid obs, the center must be to the northeast.