ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[gatorcane]

Still think we are very close to a nice LLC...don't quite think we are there, but you have to admit..looking better. PLUS when you turn on the HIGH winds, there is a nice anti-cyclone forming over the top.

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I couldn't agree with you more. There is an anti-cyclone building over top as we speak allowing the Upper-Level winds to become increasingly favorable. The LLC is clearly visible moving at about 280 degrees. I think later on tonight it will be at least a depression, to finally end speculation.

GATOR gives it a 95% chance of becoming a depression in the next 24 hours.

[wxman57]

Still think we are very close to a nice LLC...don't quite think we are there, but you have to admit..looking better. PLUS when you turn on the HIGH winds, there is a nice anti-cyclone forming over the top.

May I ask you to turn off those high winds? I'd rather not have a hurricane in the western Gulf. Thanks.

[txwatcher91]

Still think we are very close to a nice LLC...don't quite think we are there, but you have to admit..looking better. PLUS when you turn on the HIGH winds, there is a nice anti-cyclone forming over the top.

May I ask you to turn off those high winds? I'd rather not have a hurricane in the western Gulf. Thanks.

Can you imagine the price of oil if a Cat 1 or 2 were heading into the Gulf?

[KWT]

got to agree with you deltadog03, I think this has a good chance atr being a TD over the next 24hrs, as say probably not quite there but its clearly getting there steadily. If an upper anticyclone is forming on it then things get very interesting I think...

[Ivanhater]

Still think we are very close to a nice LLC...don't quite think we are there, but you have to admit..looking better. PLUS when you turn on the HIGH winds, there is a nice anti-cyclone forming over the top.

May I ask you to turn off those high winds? I'd rather not have a hurricane in the western Gulf. Thanks.

Hey wxman..are you telling your clients anything in the western gulf right now?

[Aric Dunn]

I believe the biggest issue with the system is the fact that its moving at pretty good clip nearly 20mph , now given that yeah i have seen system for while moving that fast . but i believe in this case its not allowing the south side to close of

[gatorcane]

got to agree with you deltadog03, I think this has a good chance atr being a TD over the next 24hrs, as say probably not quite there but its clearly getting there steadily. If an upper anticyclone is forming on it then things get very interesting I think...

and keep in mind that IF conditions are favorable in the Western Caribbean, we know what can happen. Many of storms have experienced RI in the Western Caribbean. I am not saying it will happen this time but it wouldn't surprise me if once 94L gets an established center and if it can stay in good Upper-Level conditions it really could intensify quickly.

[Cryomaniac]

Can you imagine the price of oil if a Cat 1 or 2 were heading into the Gulf?

I'd really rather not

[KWT]

Quite possibly that the case Aric, I know others on here have said that the speed isn't a big issue but I given this system is having a hard time developing a closed LLC that may well be a reason.

Still I can't imagine the strong MLC not to eventually work its way down to the surface given the strength and the speed its spinning up at.

Gatorcane, we will have to watch and see if it can develop a LLC first but a ULH over the system would allow for some strengthening I agree.

[gatorcane]

It seems the invest is injesting some dry air on the west and SW peripheries over the past couple of hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Quite possibly that the case Aric, I know others on here have said that the speed isn't a big issue but I given this system is having a hard time developing a closed LLC that may well be a reason.

Still I can't imagine the strong MLC not to eventually work its way down to the surface given the strength and the speed its spinning up at.

Gatorcane, we will have to watch and see if it can develop a LLC first but a ULH over the system would allow for some strengthening I agree.

will see .. i mean without that inflow coming on the south side and sustaining .. i dont think it will close off too fast i mean it might briefly than open up again like it has the past few days ..

[wxman57]

Hey wxman..are you telling your clients anything in the western gulf right now?

Can't say anything about what anyone out there might be doing. I can say that earliest probable impact to NW Gulf lease areas looks to be early Wednesday. I'm looking at a track closer to GFS than GFDL, into northern Mexico Wednesday. I think high pressure over the NW Gulf Sunday night/Monday will push it west for a while then it'll turn NW late Mon or Tue. Question is - how far west will it be at that time?

[gatorcane]

Wxman thanks for the excellent analysis as usual.

Could you show us the surface plot of where you think it is going (showing the steering currents, Highs, etc)?

I'm curious what you are seeing at this point.

[Ivanhater]

Hey wxman..are you telling your clients anything in the western gulf right now?

Can't say anything about what anyone out there might be doing. I can say that earliest probable impact to NW Gulf lease areas looks to be early Wednesday. I'm looking at a track closer to GFS than GFDL, into northern Mexico Wednesday. I think high pressure over the NW Gulf Sunday night/Monday will push it west for a while then it'll turn NW late Mon or Tue. Question is - how far west will it be at that time?

Interesting...thanks for the insite

[KWT]

So we have stil labout 5 days to keep track of this system wxman57. I also have to wonder how well it wil lhandle land when it likely runs into the Yucatan, of course its possible that it will make it to the Yucatan but I would be a little surprised.

[Brent]

Still think we are very close to a nice LLC...don't quite think we are there, but you have to admit..looking better. PLUS when you turn on the HIGH winds, there is a nice anti-cyclone forming over the top.

May I ask you to turn off those high winds? I'd rather not have a hurricane in the western Gulf. Thanks.

Can you imagine the price of oil if a Cat 1 or 2 were heading into the Gulf?

I don't wanna know...

[deltadog03]

Still think we are very close to a nice LLC...don't quite think we are there, but you have to admit..looking better. PLUS when you turn on the HIGH winds, there is a nice anti-cyclone forming over the top.

May I ask you to turn off those high winds? I'd rather not have a hurricane in the western Gulf. Thanks.

LOL Ok, im sorrrrrrry....man, i really don't want to see oil prices if this gets to the NW gom as a cane.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO BE WELL
ORGANIZED...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm not saying that this system will develop (not that it matters, but I think it eventually will) but it is interesting to note that several Texas hurricanes with "C" names have come out from the same basic Caribbean region before going ashore on the central Tx coastline.

'Canes Carla, Celia, and Claudette come to mind.

[Numlock]

Still think we are very close to a nice LLC...don't quite think we are there, but you have to admit..looking better. PLUS when you turn on the HIGH winds, there is a nice anti-cyclone forming over the top.

May I ask you to turn off those high winds? I'd rather not have a hurricane in the western Gulf. Thanks.

Can you imagine the price of oil if a Cat 1 or 2 were heading into the Gulf?

Oh dear god, I hadn't even thought about that until now

At least I can walk to work if necessary. I can't imagine being a commuter if a system entered the gulf with gas already at $4.09 a gallon.