ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[cpdaman]

button stuck

[cpdaman]

derek where do you think the center is? on your analysis thread for 96L you said the convection was right over the center

[KWT]

Oh ok yep I've made a mess there sorry!

Still I think even then the circulation is far closer to the convection then 80 miles. I think the convection is probably only 20-30NM to the SW of the big convective burst that has just gone up.

[txwatcher91]

I think the center is being pulled into the convection. The 80NM seems a bit far off

I agree, on KCLX radar I can see either the MLC or LLC rotating. The center appears to be 110NM SE of the radar. Do you think I am looking at the right area?

[senorpepr]

Did a quick analysis using the tools here, that convection is about 80mi ESE of the center.

Ummm I just can't see that to be honest, the center surely isn't further east then 79W like you are suggesting, your location would put the center around 78W?!

You're getting your directions wrong. The convection is ESE of the center, which is around 80-81W

[senorpepr]

I think the center is being pulled into the convection. The 80NM seems a bit far off

I'm using 80SM. This is based on observations which should the circulation around 80.5-80.8. That is also in good agreement with the satellite fixes. I haven't really seen much evidence of the center being pulled into the convection, although that wouldn't surprise me.

[KWT]

Yeah my bad I misread it senorpepr, still I think its too far west I agree with Derek this is getting closer to the convection still you've had more training then myself so there we go!

By the way if the cente ris closer to the convection would that be why the the T numbers haven't been all that high?

[cpdaman]

senorprer

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1

bouy located at 80.24 w. the winds have switched from south earlier to NW , that tells me LLC is further east

[HarlequinBoy]

Hmm, it looks to me that convection is over the center. Not much to the NW of it... the Jacksonville radar long range loop shows it clearly to me.

[txwatcher91]

According to GR2 radar, the area of rotation is around 31.4N and 79.3W, although that may be the MLC.

[KWT]

Yep cpdaman, I think about 79.9W roughly is where I'd place the current center on the SE side of the convection but not quite in the center of it.

[Aric Dunn]

all you have to do is watch the along loop of the system and starting from this morning and you can clearly see the center getting pulled right under that initial burst that happened earlier... the motion of the center has had slow drift to the east today and is still on the western edge of that convection but it is not exposed obviosuly then we would see the center on visible so at the least it is in close proximity to the convection and a the convection is likely a direct result of the center becoming more well defined..


also the center seems to be displaced from the midlevel circ.

[Brent]

I think it's going to be upgraded by 5am for sure, maybe at 11.

[senorpepr]

senorprer

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1

bouy located at 80.24 w. the winds have switched from south earlier to NW , that tells me LLC is further east

I'm not sold on that observation for being representative on the circulation. It appears that wind was influenced by some localized event (outflow, etc). It sticks out-of-place when you do a streamline analysis.

Speaking of which, I just sat down and drew up a streamline, using METAR/SPECI, Ships, Buoys, and cloud features and I'm getting the circulation around 31.5°/80.8°. (Once again, this matches up well with SAB and TAFB's 18Z fix, at least longitudinally of 80.8° and 80.6°, respectively.)

[k4sdi]

GR2 shows 55K storm tops

Umm where, from which radar location?

[senorpepr]

I think it's going to be upgraded by 5am for sure, maybe at 11.

I don't foresee this being upgraded at 11pm. Maybe 11am tomorrow. 5am--maybe/maybe not.

[Aric Dunn]

senorprer

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1

bouy located at 80.24 w. the winds have switched from south earlier to NW , that tells me LLC is further east

I'm not sold on that observation for being representative on the circulation. It appears that wind was influenced by some localized event (outflow, etc). It sticks out-of-place when you do a streamline analysis.

Speaking of which, I just sat down and drew up a streamline, using METAR/SPECI, Ships, Buoys, and cloud features and I'm getting the circulation around 80.8°. (Once again, this matches up well with SAB and TAFB's 18Z fix, at least longitudinally of 80.8° and 80.6°, respectively.)

hmmm.. i find those coordinates to be rather out of place ... since well on radar that exact location has long rainband right through the middle of it. that location is directly east of the FL GA border and is to far south.

also that was the location of the center this morning.

[senorpepr]

GR2 shows 55K storm tops

Umm where, from what radar???

FWIW, there are some radar tops reported at FL500-530...

http://aviationweather.gov/obs/radar/

[senorpepr]

senorprer

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1

bouy located at 80.24 w. the winds have switched from south earlier to NW , that tells me LLC is further east

I'm not sold on that observation for being representative on the circulation. It appears that wind was influenced by some localized event (outflow, etc). It sticks out-of-place when you do a streamline analysis.

Speaking of which, I just sat down and drew up a streamline, using METAR/SPECI, Ships, Buoys, and cloud features and I'm getting the circulation around 80.8°. (Once again, this matches up well with SAB and TAFB's 18Z fix, at least longitudinally of 80.8° and 80.6°, respectively.)

hmmm.. i find those coordinates to be rather out of place ... since well on radar that exact location has long rainband right through the middle of it. that location is directly east of the FL GA border and is to far south

I made a typo on the latitude, but the longitude holds up. It's just south of the GA/SC border... ~31.5

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 182337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 640 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM
THIS EVENING. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.