ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[Stratosphere747]

[gatorcane]

Those model runs above are just extrapolating the current movement. If an actual center can form and deepen then we'll see what the global models do with it.

[Stratosphere747]

:uarrow:

Those model runs above are just extrapolating the current movement. If an actual center can form and deepen then we'll see what the global models do with it.

No.

That is what XTRP does.

[ROCK]

:uarrow:

Those model runs above are just extrapolating the current movement. If an actual center can form and deepen then we'll see what the global models do with it.

No.

That is what XTRP does.

correct!!

[N2Storms]

[quote="Jason_B"]Funny how most of the Floridians on here are hyping up the more northerly track for this storm when the consensus is still Mexico/Texas. Just an observation. [/quote]


Why all the board fixation w / Florida posters? I realize that there are several who wishcast either consciously or sub-consciously but I find that is true with posters from every state represented on this board. It's a common phenomena but it seems as though every year someone makes sly remarks about Florida posters. I don't get too caught up in all that crap but seeing that I'm a "Florida" Poster I kinda take offense to some of these inuendos. I haven't noticed many comments in this thread from Florida posters who think 94L is going to threaten Florida. I think most realize that even if this does become a named system the most likely track is towards Tx - Mexico with an outside shot at Louisiana.

[Innotech]

I do notice that the reforming LLC is obviously well north of ALL of those models.
Its closer to 15N

[deltadog03]

I think the 15N development...is why NHC made mention for jamaica and the caymans, to be heads up.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST BASED ON ANY WISHING BIAS

Reference: http://www.hwn.org/atlantic/ir-caribbean-loop.htm

From my amateur analysis, it appears that the convection of 94L is
intensifying, and that it will be entering a favorable environment of
less shear in the Central Caribbean. Thus, I expect intensification.
As for track, I am going to go with the current model runs consensus
of a 5-6 day track into South Texas/Northern Mexico, it is too
early to tell but people in South Texas and in Mexico
should monitor this system closely. The Yucatan needs to
watch this closely, and the Jamaica Island/ Caymans and nearby
islands should watch this very closely.

I think it may intensify into a 85 mph hurricane before hitting
the Yucatan, and then weaken to a tropical storm, but
given its large size, re-strengthen gradually to a hurricane
and making landfall in 5 days somewhere between Central
Mexico and South Texas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

TBH's unofficial prognosis sounds plausible to me, and is similar to my own thinking. The model spray seems to be converging.



Unofficially.

[Ed Mahmoud]

FWIW, 18Z NAM is South of those tracks, and weak...


Yes, I know, the NAM, but I'm leaving now...

[KWT]

No wonder the models are having a hard time with developing it when they start the low down 12N 70W, there is nothing down there so its clearly not going to do anything either, until they get the starting point right best not too pay much attention to them.

[Stratosphere747]

No wonder the models are having a hard time with developing it when they start the low down 12N 70W, there is nothing down there so its clearly not going to do anything either, until they get the starting point right best not too pay much attention to them.

?

Look at the 18z runs. They are initialized where many are looking near 15.

[Derek Ortt]

latest NCEP global loks like Mexico

[KWT]

I was talking abouthe image that Stratosphere747 posted up where the models have this down at like 12N, I've not seen the latest guidence.

[TheRingo]

It will probably be out soon. 18z of Bertha shows 94L skirting the bottom of western cuba.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... l/slp6.png

[KWT]

Yep that loks like it reflects the region where the MLC is at the moment. Also note this time takes it upto 61kts on the DSHIPS, pretty interesting!

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah the northward shift in the models is of no surprise. As I mentioned earlier, this situation reminds me of Ernesto from 2006. Ernesto was progged to go South of Texas and into the SW GOM. It ended up much farther east. The ULL to the NW is inducing some SW to NE shear which is causing alot of the deeper convection to get blown off to the NE. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some "LLC" reformations more N of the speculated LLC. I do not see 94L slamming into Central America. At this point I think anybody in the GOM from about Lousiana west to Texas should be on watch.

The NHC must also be taking note of this possibility given that Jamaica and the Northwest Caribbean are in their TWO

[Ivanhater]

BAMS again move north..now all have South Texas...the trend continues...

[ronjon]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah the northward shift in the models is of no surprise. As I mentioned earlier, this situation reminds me of Ernesto from 2006. Ernesto was progged to go South of Texas and into the SW GOM. It ended up much farther east. The ULL to the NW is inducing some SW to NE shear which is causing alot of the deeper convection to get blown off to the NE. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some "LLC" reformations more N of the speculated LLC. I do not see 94L slamming into Central America. At this point I think anybody in the GOM from about Lousiana west to Texas should be on watch.

The NHC must also be taking note of this possibility given that Jamaica and the Northwest Caribbean are in their TWO

Gatorcane, look for the 18Z GFDL to jump even further north.

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC SHIP forecast=Shear is not an issue.

Code: Select all

   *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  07/19/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    32    36    40    44    51    61    68    74    76    77    75    73
V (KT) LAND       30    32    36    40    44    51    61    49    54    56    57    55    53
V (KT) LGE mod    30    31    32    33    35    40    46    40    46    52    58    63    65

SHEAR (KTS)       10    11     9     3     8     9     5     8     5    10    13    17    15
SHEAR DIR        284   288   299   293   245   333   232    20   293   334   297   320   286
SST (C)         27.9  28.1  28.2  28.2  28.4  28.6  28.5  27.8  27.9  28.6  28.3  27.8  27.4
POT. INT. (KT)   137   140   142   142   144   147   145   135   136   146   141   133   128
ADJ. POT. INT.   137   141   142   142   143   144   139   127   126   133   125   117   111
200 MB T (C)   -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.6 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C)      11    10    10    11    11     8    11     8    10     7    11     9    13
700-500 MB RH     71    71    70    65    64    67    71    73    71    67    68    66    62
GFS VTEX (KT)      9    10    10    10    10    11    12    12    13    12    10     9     8
850 MB ENV VOR    23    42    45    44    35    21    22     7    -7    -9    -7   -18     4
200 MB DIV        73    56    67    73    45   -24    54    24    73    -2    37     8    22
LAND (KM)        356   286   211   180   235   311   166   -66   147   381   317   164    28
LAT (DEG N)     14.8  15.3  15.8  16.5  17.1  18.4  19.7  20.9  22.3  23.7  25.2  26.2  27.0
LONG(DEG W)     74.0  75.6  77.1  78.7  80.2  83.1  85.8  88.3  90.6  92.6  94.1  95.6  97.1
STM SPEED (KT)    15    16    16    16    16    15    14    13    12    11     9     8     7
HEAT CONTENT      55    65    80    89    70    80    90  9999     9    42    37    36     1

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15      CX,CY: -13/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  608  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  24.4 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  56.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   2.   6.  11.  17.  20.  24.  27.  28.  29.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   9.  10.  12.  11.  11.  10.  10.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   1.   2.   1.  -1.  -1.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   2.   3.   2.   3.   2.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   9.  13.  21.  31.  38.  45.  47.  48.  47.  45.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   6.  10.  14.  21.  31.  38.  44.  46.  47.  45.  43.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008     INVEST 07/19/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.3 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  62.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 111.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.4 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  19.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  71.8 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    33% is   2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    16% is   2.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008     INVEST 07/19/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY