MiamiensisWx wrote:MiamiensisWx wrote:The following post is NOT an official prognosis.
If the mid level dry air to the NW doesn't significantly affect the convection via intrusion, I believe this one has a significant chance to eventually gain TS classification. Currently, a H5-H85 shortwave is moving ENE off New England, leaving 96L under low level ridging immediately to its north. Steering should remain weak over the next 24 hours, allowing adept time over water. WV data indicates the upper low further south is partially providing excellent ventilation and divergence, while diffluence from the low levels to upper levels is very good. Shear is clearly minimal for the system. Additionally, 96L is located over warm coastal SSTs, with higher OHC (oceanic heat content) associated with the deep Gulf Stream located under the eastern semicircle. This is contributing to an unstable boundary layer over the eastern portion of the system (east of the LLC, which is located just off the GA/SC border). Rapid ascent of parcels is allowing unabated development of additional convection in all quadrants, especially the eastern one over the Gulf Stream. This is important, as I will demonstrate in the next paragraph.
The NWS doppler radar composite for the Southeast indicates the LLC is offshore near the Georgia/South Carolina border, as I previously mentioned. Mid level rotation is evident further southeast in the vicinity of the most expansive convection and thunderstorms. With convection increasing in this region over the Gulf Stream, I would not be surprised if the current LLC eventually dissipates and reforms further SE (even further offshore), coinciding with the location of the broad mid level rotation. This makes sense, since the boundary layer is most unstable in this region, and stronger thunderstorms should result in greater low level inflow in the area adjacent to the mid level circulation. This would allow even more time offshore, so TS status is very probable. 850 mb low level vorticity is sufficient in the immediate vicinity as well.
This one could intensify more than some anticipate... watch it.
...and most people are perplexingly focusing on 94L, which clearly does not have a chance and is not threatening land (Central America/Mexico) at the immediate moment. I'm curious on why reconnaissance is focusing on 94L instead of 96L.
Hopefully, Southeast coastal residents are keeping a close eye on this one.
94L and 96L both seem to have same issues now prohibiting development, dry air and shear. The difference in 94L is that, if it developed, would probably have much more potential, than than 96L would have, because it has more room.
