ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[storms in NC]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[senorpepr]

96L looks on the verge of becoming a TD. Recon should have been diverted from 94L to 96L. Seems to be slowly drifting to the SE. If this developes at a good pace it could be a TS later tonight......MGC

I have look really hard and i don't see a South movement. I think it is a TD Now.

Surface observations and buoys in the area don't support a tropical depression. (They can be used since the circulation is close to land) As exposed as 96L is, there was no reason to send a flight into the system. It's still a weak system--definitely not a depression. At best, we're looking at a small area of 30 mph winds... maybe.

[Stormtrack03]

Most of the rain (for now) appears to be staying offshore:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

[seahawkjd]

Can definitely see storms starting to build on the south and the north of the center so it doesn't look anywhere near as exposed as it was earlier this morning.

[brunota2003]

MHX Morning Discussion:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GIVEN WEAK STEERING THE LOW TO THE S WILL MOVE SLOWLY WITH MDLS
SHOWING IT STAYING CLOSE THE THE CST AS IT MOVES MAINLY NNE.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE GFS WITH INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA SAT INTO SUN WHEN THE LOW MOVES CLOSE TO NC. KEPT LIKELY
POPS CONFINED TO SRN AND IMD CSTL SITES WHERE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED TO BE BETTER. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SLOW MOTION OF
LOW SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME TRAINING OF SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOW CLOSELY FOR
INCREASING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPCLY IF IT STAYS OVER WARM WTR
AND DOESNT MOVE OVER LAND. HIGHS WILL CONT AROUND 90 INLAND AND N
SAT AND SUN WITH LESS RAIN POTENTIAL WITH MAINLY MID 80S CST.

[cycloneye]

Recon tommorow and beyond if necessary:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181555
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1155 AM EDT FRI 18 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(OFF S.E. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 19/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01BBB INVEST
C. 19/1445Z
D. 32.6N 78.8W
E. 19/1630Z TO 19/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 77
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBB CYCLONE
C. 20/0245Z
D. 33.7N 77.3W
E. 20/0500Z TO 20/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK...CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.

[Stormtrack03]

11:15 am Charleston Area Forecast Discussion Update:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM...WHILE SHOWING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... REMAINS FAIRLY UNORGANIZED WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND
GREATEST CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITH THE LOW CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM.

[O Town]

Two web cams from Hilton Head SC.
Doesn't look that bad, not even really raining. Still people out and about. Surf doesn't look that rough either.
Looks like the wind is whippin around somewhat tho.

http://www.saltydog.com/webcam/southbeach/

http://12.156.240.124/view/index.shtml

[Emmett_Brown]

While the storm is still not well organized, you can see what appears to be a SE motion on the radar loop out of Jax:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JAX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

MGC pointed this out, and I think correctly. Overall, this is still slowly but steadily organizing. I do think this will be a TD by the end of the day. While it is drifting SE now, I think this is just temporary while it is organizing. The center seems to be co-locating with the are of strongest convection offshore.

[Aric Dunn]

its should be a TD here shortly ..

[curtadams]

Closed circulation with heavy convection near the center on Jacksonville radar. Looks like a TD to me now. In what way isn't it a TD?

[tolakram]

Closed circulation with heavy convection near the center on Jacksonville radar. Looks like a TD to me now. In what way isn't it a TD?

You linked to a radar loops that provides the answer in my opinion. I don't see any clear area of convection rotating around a single center. I do see the circular motion, but nothing organized, at least in my opinion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

They don't need recon with this. They have buoys and radar to show a closed circulation.

[Brent]

I think this is going to beat 94L in getting upgraded. Who would have thought?

[CrazyC83]

I think this is going to beat 94L in getting upgraded. Who would have thought?

I think it will too. I smell TD3 here soon - if it isn't already one.

[senorpepr]

Closed circulation with heavy convection near the center on Jacksonville radar. Looks like a TD to me now. In what way isn't it a TD?

Yes, it as a defined circulation, but organized convection over the center is not happening. The only place significant convection is occurring is on the eastern and southeastern sections of the circulation. It's not quite enough to be classified as a depression.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think this is going to beat 94L in getting upgraded. Who would have thought?

Me before it was even 96L..

[txwatcher91]

Closed circulation with heavy convection near the center on Jacksonville radar. Looks like a TD to me now. In what way isn't it a TD?

Yes, it as a defined circulation, but organized convection over the center is not happening. The only place significant convection is occurring is on the eastern and southeastern sections of the circulation. It's not quite enough to be classified as a depression.

But visible and IR shows the circulation covered, and there have been many TD's with exposed LLC's which this one doesn't have.

[CrazyC83]

IMO, they should have sent the NOAA plane out there today...