ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[storms in NC]

It is hard to say what this will do. I myself think it will be a less a TD to a low TS as it comes just partly inland and then on out to sea. I wish it could come in far enough for Raleigh west could get some rain too. I just want the rain. You can keep the winds. If it would come in farther it could help put out the fires that are burning still here in NC.

[KWT]

I personally think this could become a 40-50kts tropical storm eventually over the next 48hrs and brush the outer banks. Thats what the model guidence suggests though they can be wrong. As long as this doesn't develop a tight inner core shouldn't have time to beocme anything stronger IMo...then again we've said that a few times before in the past and been very wrong.

[BigA]

Convection appears to be starting to fire to the north, south, and southwest of the supposed center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/vis.jpg

[Stephanie]

It has a nice look about it - fairly symetrical.

I'm hoping that it does come far enough north to New Jersey so we can get some much needed rain from it.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF
GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

[Bane]

it's going to be an interesting weekend here.

[GeneratorPower]

Uh-oh. Should have gotten the plane moving earlier. Scramble! Scramble! That is going to be a problem if it develops quickly. No recon and just a few miles from shore.

[KWT]

Wel lthey have recon ready for tommorow and I think its likely to still be offshore at that stage so should see recon tomorrow for 96L. Of course exactly what strength it will be at by that point is anyones guess!

[storms in NC]

It is not going any where fast. But it is building up fast. You can see from about 6 am this morning to now how mush biger it has gotten. Any one on the coast should watch this. But It will not make it to hurricane. JIMO

Come on rain

[KWT]

No I wouldn't have thought so either storms but I think this certainly could become a tropical storm. Its estimated to be drifting a 1mph I believe, as good as stationary really.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Id Be shocked if this did not become a named Storm...It looks Like your classic Carolina Hugger..

[MGC]

96L looks on the verge of becoming a TD. Recon should have been diverted from 94L to 96L. Seems to be slowly drifting to the SE. If this developes at a good pace it could be a TS later tonight......MGC

[wxsouth]

"The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products."

I am seeing a more defined center on radar that is drifting to the south. With the proximiny to land and the lack of hot water availible near the coast I am still not expecting much from this area. Look at the heat potential charts, the LLC will have to move east to tap into the gulf steam. The nearshore waters are in the mid-70s and dropping with the offshore winds causing more upwelling. All I see is a rainmaker.

No offense...but your assertion of nearshore waters is the mid 70s is wrong. Water temps along the coast are at least 80...supported by the aoml SST analysis and current buoy obs. Yes, the heat content along the coast is low...but it always is because the water is shallow. In short...there is plenty of warm water available for development.

[KWT]

I'm not sure about that MGC they both look about equal duistance from being a TD IMO, 96L obviously has a closed low but the convection just needs to get a little closer to the LLC whilst 94L has the convection but there is uncertainties about the ciruclation, if anything 94L needs recon more because at least with 96L the circulation is plain to see.

I agree as well probably less then 9hrs away from being a depression IMO and does indeed look like being one of those Carolina huggers.

[txwatcher91]

I personally think this could become a 40-50kts tropical storm eventually over the next 48hrs and brush the outer banks. Thats what the model guidence suggests though they can be wrong. As long as this doesn't develop a tight inner core shouldn't have time to beocme anything stronger IMo...then again we've said that a few times before in the past and been very wrong.

Not saying it will do this, but remember how fast Katrina spun up?

[HurricaneHunter914]

What's the record for the amount of tropical cyclones in a basin at the same time?

[HURAKAN]

What's the record for the amount of tropical cyclones in a basin at the same time?

In the Atlantic I think it's four. But if we get three at the same time in July, it's probably a record.

[Chacor]

What's the record for the amount of tropical cyclones in a basin at the same time?

More than three. There were four at one time at least twice in the Atlantic.

[HurricaneHunter914]

What's the record for the amount of tropical cyclones in a basin at the same time?

In the Atlantic I think it's four. But if we get three at the same time in July, it's probably a record.

Three isn't along ways off if both 94L and 96L form before Bertha goes extratropical.
96L is looking more organized by the hour. Kinda looks like a TD already.

[storms in NC]

96L looks on the verge of becoming a TD. Recon should have been diverted from 94L to 96L. Seems to be slowly drifting to the SE. If this developes at a good pace it could be a TS later tonight......MGC

I have look really hard and i don't see a South movement. I think it is a TD Now.